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The author:(作者)aaapublished in(发表于) 2013/12/17 15:39:03 From miracle to maturity： the idea of a new round of reform in China and tasks
The process of reform and emancipation process. 18 the third plenary session of the party by the CPC Central Committee's decision on deepen reform of a number of important issues, both at home and abroad appear to be keen. Recent article of the concept of reform must go out and trap (hereinafter referred to as ' change ') and that some "idea trap seriously hamper the reforms. "Where the first idea trap, is the" Chinese model ". Think of the change "because of our 35 years of rapid development advantages of backwardness", "actually, we are a parasite economy" to grow as fast and "does not mean that our system is superior." "We go faster is a natural", "copying someone else's homework score". Questions raised by the text of the change is important, but its logic and ideas is open to question.
First, China's economic miracle is because the advantage of backwardness or institutional advantages?
35 years of reform, China's rapid economic growth, for what reason? Because a lot of surplus labor force, high savings rates, a huge technology gap? Still we have adopted market-oriented development strategy and play a positive role as Government and institutional mechanisms? Is because the advantage of backwardness or institutional advantages?
In fact, the Chinese economic miracle is a combination of advantages and institutional advantages, is a common result of subjective and objective factors, both. Advantage of backwardness is an objective existence, but does not mean that there are potential advantages must be able to achieve an economic powerhouse, only institutional advantages to advantages inherent in growth potential after release. This is why most developing economies to achieve rapid growth, long-term "low-income trap" struggling in the mud. African economies have advantages, why not like China to take off? Before reform and opening up, China also has advantages, why not leave? Reason for this is that since 1978, China adopted the household contract responsibility system, system, State-owned enterprise reforms, accession to the WTO and a series of reform measures, the formation of institutional advantages, the buttons started to take off, and to sustain rapid growth for more than 30 years, successfully into the upper ranks of the middle-income countries.
To the "roots", said so-called institutional strength in China, is to respect the objective economic law, found a successful catch-up path of development, the road Japan, and Korea have been found. 1978 was the watershed in the Chinese economy, which we do not respect the rules, we respect laws, so there is an institutional advantage, advantage can get the underlying growth potential unleashed. In fact, there is no so-called "Chinese model", if there is one, is respect for the law, play good initiative successful catch-up mode.
Second, ever successfully chased the institution does not need to change?
Further away, right-Chase system was worse than the leading institutions? Apparently not, this related to the stage of development. What is the best system? What is the best market economy? International experience has shown that the fit is the best suitable for stages of development is the best and forever history cannot be separated from issues. Frontrunner is one, most of the Chaser is to catch up with or who have, when the United States catch up with United Kingdom, Japan chased United States, Korea catch Japan, have adopted successful catch-up model, ranks among the leading countries. Even between first-class countries, different systems and the advantages, American and British top services, top German and Japanese high-end manufacturing, is a successful, civilized end mode.
So, ever successfully chased systems do not need to change? And no, chased successfully does not mean the transformation is successful, so there'll be "middle-income trap." Catch-up and leading institutions the most fundamental difference is that the relationship between Government and market, in terms of resource allocation, catch-up system is in need of stronger government hands and hand of leadership needs a market top. 18 plenary session decisions, to make the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources, and give better play to the role of Government, in response to the demands of the times.
Three, from miracle to mature: the task of a new round of reform in China
Any economy cannot always maintain high growth, successful catch-up economies are experiencing "from take off to landing, from Chase to lead, from miracle to mature" development process. Economy develops to a certain stage, the potential growth rate dropped with regularity and necessity, is the proportion of the working-age population decline, rising labor costs, with cutting-edge national technology gap, consumer durables and consumer demand close to growth in peak demand and supply conditions, such as the inevitable result of the structural changes taking place.
In recent years, China's economy has seen a potential systemic structural characteristics of declining growth. From elements supply see, China labor age population share since 2010 began declined, absolute scale also began reduced, with frontier national of technology gap narrowed, faced by imitation to original of shift; from needs see, population structure decided of real estate investment needs long cycle inflection points near, car consumption by high-speed growth period entered universal period, residents consumption to service class upgrade; from industry see, heavy chemical industry capacity serious excess, high-end manufacturing and productive services fast growth; from regional see, Lead economic growth down the stairs in the eastern region, faced pressure of transformation and upgrading. Growth phase transition, the comparative advantages of China's economy and the economic structure has undergone significant changes, you need to set up new institutional advantages to release new potential, this is task for the new round of reforms. Current in growth level, needs by high-speed to in the high-speed growth stage conversion; in industry structure level, needs by heavy chemical industry mainly to high-end manufacturing and services mainly upgrade; in needs structure level, needs residents consumption by survival type to development enjoy type upgrade, government expenditures by investment sexual to public livelihood sexual tilt; in elements supply level, needs by population number advantage to human capital advantage upgrade, by technology imitation to technology innovation shift. These changes, the most fundamental is the need to complete the system changes and innovations, completed by the Government-dominated catch-up mode to play a decisive role and give better play to the role of Government in the market maturity model of the market economy in transition. Only through reform completed the deepest of institutional transformation and the establishment of new institutional advantages, advantages to achieve the element changes, upgrade to fit those needs, nurture emerging leading industry clusters, the release of a new growth potential, so as to realize the growth phase conversion. (Deputy Ren Zeping, a researcher at the development research center of the State Council)
(Edit: SN091)December 17, 2013 China economic NET(从奇迹到成熟：中国新一轮改革的理念和任务|优势|体制|中国_新闻资讯
改革的过程，也是思想解放的过程。党的十八届三中全会通过了《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》，国内外反响热烈。近期有篇文章《改革必须走出理念陷阱》(以下简称《改》文)，提及有些“理念陷阱严重地阻碍着我们的改革。”其中第一个理念陷阱，就是“中国模式论”。《改》文认为“我们35年的高速发展是因为后发优势”，“我们其实是一种寄生经济”，增长得快并“不证明我们的体制优越”。“我们走得快是自然的”，“抄别人的作业得高分”。《改》文提出的问题十分重要，但其逻辑和观点值得商榷。
一、中国经济奇迹是因为后发优势还是体制优势？
改革开放35年来，中国经济高速增长的原因是什么？是因为大量剩余劳动力、高储蓄率、巨大的技术差距？还是我们采取了市场经济导向和发挥好政府作用的发展战略和体制机制？是因为后发优势还是体制优势？
实际上，中国经济奇迹是后发优势和体制优势的结合，是主客观因素共同作用的结果，二者缺一不可。后发优势是一种客观存在，但并不意味着存在后发优势就一定能够实现经济起飞，只有体制优势才能把后发优势所蕴含的增长潜力释放出来。这就是为什么大多数发展中经济体不能实现高速增长，长期在“低收入陷阱”的泥潭中挣扎。非洲的经济体都具备后发优势，为什么就不能像中国一样起飞？改革开放前中国也有后发优势，为什么也不能起飞？原因是，1978年以来，中国通过家庭联产承包责任制、分税制、国企改革、加入WTO等一系列改革开放措施，形成了体制优势，启动了起飞的按钮，并保持高速增长30多年，成功迈入中上等收入国家行列。
再往“根”上说，所谓的中国体制优势，就是尊重客观经济规律，找到了一条成功追赶的发展道路，这条道路日本、韩国等都曾经找到过。1978年是中国经济的分水岭，之前我们不尊重规律，之后我们尊重规律，所以我们就有了体制优势，就能把后发优势所蕴含的增长潜力释放出来。其实，并不存在所谓的“中国模式”，如果有的话，就是尊重客观规律、发挥好主观能动性的成功追赶模式。
二、是不是曾经成功追赶的体制就不需要改变？
进一步地讲，是不是追赶型体制就比领先型体制差？显然不是，这跟发展阶段有关。什么是最好的制度？什么是最好的市场经济？国际经验表明，合适的就是最好，适合发展阶段的就是最好的，永远都不能脱离历史来看问题。领跑者只有一个，大多数都是追赶者或者曾经的追赶者，当年美国追赶英国，日本追赶美国，韩国追赶日本，都采取了成功的追赶模式，才跻身一流国家行列。即使一流国家之间，制度和优势也不尽相同，美英服务业强，德日高端制造业强，都是成功的，文明没有终结模式。
那么，是不是曾经成功追赶的体制就不需要改变？也不是，追赶成功并不意味着转型成功，所以会有“中等收入陷阱”。追赶型体制和领先型体制最根本的区别在于政府和市场之间关系，在资源配置方面，追赶型体制需要政府之手强一些，而领先型体制需要市场之手强一些。十八届三中全会决定提出，要使市场在资源配置中发挥决定性作用和更好发挥政府作用，因应了时代的要求。
三、从奇迹到成熟：中国新一轮改革的任务
任何一个经济体都不可能永远保持高速增长，成功追赶型经济体均经历了“从起飞到降落、从追赶到领先、从奇迹到成熟”的发展过程。经济发展到一定阶段，潜在增长率的下降具有规律性和必然性，是劳动年龄人口比重下降、劳动力成本上升、跟前沿国家技术差距缩小、耐用消费品和住行消费需求接近增速峰值等供求条件发生结构性变化的必然结果。
近年中国经济已经出现了潜在增速下降的系统性结构特征。从要素供给看，中国劳动年龄人口比重自2010年开始下降，绝对规模也开始减少，跟前沿国家的技术差距缩小，面临由模仿到原创的转变；从需求看，人口结构决定的房地产投资需求长周期拐点临近，汽车消费由高速增长期进入普及期，居民消费向服务类升级；从产业看，重化工业产能严重过剩，高端制造业和生产性服务业快速成长；从区域看，东部地区经济增速率先下台阶，面临转型升级压力。 增长阶段转换期，中国经济的比较优势和经济结构发生了重大变化，需要建立新的体制优势来释放新的潜力，这正是新一轮改革的任务。当前在增速层面，需要由高速向中高速增长阶段转换；在产业结构层面，需要由重化工业为主向高端制造业和服务业为主升级；在需求结构层面，需要居民消费由生存型向发展享受型升级，政府支出由投资性向公共民生性倾斜；在要素供给层面，需要由人口数量优势向人力资本优势升级，由技术模仿到技术创新转变。实现上述转变，最根本的是需要完成制度转变和改革创新，完成由政府主导的追赶型模式向市场起决定性作用和更好发挥政府作用的成熟市场经济模式转型。只有通过改革完成最深层次的制度转型，建立新的体制优势，才能够实现要素优势转变，满足需求升级，培育出新兴主导产业集群，释放出新的增长潜力，进而实现增长阶段转换。(国务院发展研究中心副研究员 任泽平)
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