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The author:(作者)aaapublished in(发表于) 2013/12/18 9:45:16 CASS： or falling housing prices in some cities next year， overall not crash
People's daily Beijing, December 18 (Du Yanfei) the housing green paper published today by the Chinese Academy of social sciences: China's housing development report (2013-2014), estimated that the city housing one or two lines in the first quarter of next year for short term peak three or four tiers will continue to slow this year, prices may also occur in some cities, "ghost town" phenomenon may be expanded, but housing prices in Chinese cities overall crash behavior does not occur.
Report predicts that anemic growth in demand and housing in the latter stage will dramatically increase significantly under the premise, one or two lines of urban House prices will peak in the first quarter of next year for short term.
Report think, led to one or two line city prices short-term peaked of directly reasons include: a is prices significantly rose makes housing paid capacity declined; two is 2013 housing sales outbreak sex growth, since live type housing demand was mass consumption, in limit purchase policy not appeared changes of conditions Xia, demand late growth fatigue; three is 2012 end of and 2013 developers scramble for "to King" indicates with late housing supply will significantly increased; four is prices had fast rose of City Government will faced larger of pressure, Regulatory policy fully upgraded, which played a stable regulatory policy objective expectations of home buyers, you can temporarily ease market jitters.
Prefecture-level city centered in the Midwest three or four tiers in the big cities the trend of rapid economic development in the County by macroclimate and microclimate, economy relatively hollow, will continue 2012-2013 slow the housing market, housing prices in some cities could fall into the channel. Reported that that three or four lines built in the early cities movement produces a large number of housing supply, exodus, House selling conditions, "ghost town" phenomenon may be expanded. But in several major cities within cities, due to the favourable economic Division of labour could still maintain a relatively good development trend.
Report notes that fall occurred mainly in a few recessions cities in our country, the majority of urban economic growth prospects, overall crash behavior does not occur, align drop city predicted the price will be more. These cities will be mainly coastal urban, Midwest prices excessively high investment speculation too seriously limited population growth in cities and cities.
In addition, according to the report, from the perspective of history and international experience, the housing bubble burst, closely connected with economic depression, at this stage, China's property prices decrease occurred mainly in the city of a small number of recession, most of the city's economic growth prospects in China, thus the total collapse of prices do not appear in Chinese cities.
(Edit: SN091)December 18, 2013 People's daily online(社科院：明年部分城市房价或下跌 整体不会崩盘|房价|城市|社科院_新闻资讯
人民网北京12月18日电(杜燕飞) 社科院今日发布的《住房绿皮书：中国住房发展报告(2013-2014)》中预测，明年一、二线城市房价将于一季度短线见顶，三、四线城市将延续今年的滞销态势，部分城市还可能出现房价下跌，“鬼城”现象可能扩大，但中国城市房价不会出现整体崩盘现象。
报告预测，在后期需求增长乏力和住房显著将显著增加的前提下，一、二线城市房价将在明年一季度短线见顶。
报告认为，导致一、二线城市房价短线见顶的直接原因包括：一是房价大幅上涨使住房支付能力下降；二是2013年住房销售爆发性增长，自住型住房需求被大量消耗，在限购政策不出现转变的条件下，需求后期增长乏力；三是2012年底和2013年开发商争抢“地王”预示着后期住房供给将显著增加；四是房价过快上涨的城市政府将面临较大的压力，调控政策全面升级，这些调控政策客观上起了稳定自住型购房者预期的作用，可以暂时缓解市场恐慌情绪。
以中西部地级市为主体的三、四线城市在大城市化趋势和县域经济快速发展的夹击下，经济出现相对空心化，住房市场将延续2012至2013年滞销态势，部分城市房价可能步入下跌通道。报告指出，由于三、四线城市前期造城运动产生大量住房供给，在人口外流、楼房滞销的条件下，“鬼城”现象可能扩大。但在几大城市群内的中小城市，由于经济分工的有利地位，仍可能维持相对较好的发展趋势。
报告指出，我国房价下跌主要出现在少数经济衰退的城市，大多数城市经济增长前景看好，不会出现整体崩盘现象，预测明年量价齐降的城市会更多。这些城市将主要是沿海房价畸高城市、中西部人口增长有限的城市以及投资投机过于严重的城市。
此外，报告认为，从历史和国际经验看，房地产泡沫破灭与经济衰退有密切联系，现阶段中国房价下跌主要出现在少数经济衰退的城市，中国大多数城市经济增长前景看好，因而中国城市房价不会出现整体崩盘现象。
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