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The author:(作者)aaapublished in(发表于) 2013/12/22 18:54:56 North of guangshen for 3 consecutive months， home prices rose over 20%
Xinhuanet, Shanghai, December 21 (reporters Zheng Juntian and and Wei Zongkai)-statistics released on 18th November 70 cities nationwide house price statistics, although the November House prices per cent rise overall continued to narrow, but for real estate price rises are still too small for you.
Later, developers in the land market and set off a new round of land boom at the same time, local governments are also tightening in the intensive property restriction policies. You can imagine that in 2014, "regulatory chill" and "expected hot" or will co-exist in the property market. In the context of China's real estate market regulation mechanism and gradually formed, trend of house prices will remain stable next year.
North of guangshen up Super 20% for 3 consecutive months
Statistics released on 18th of November, prices in 70 cities across the country residential sales statistics show North to Guangzhou-Shenzhen and other cities home prices rose for the third month in a row over 20%, which is 21 in Beijing. 1%, Shanghai is 21. 9%, Guangzhou is 20. 9%, Shenzhen is 21. 0%.
Second-hand housing market in the property market are very hot. According to the November 70 cities in second-hand home prices compared with the same month last year, prices rose city has 68. North of guangshen's four major cities with "double digit" rise ahead of, of which, Beijing, 20. 1% rose at an alarming rate.
In first-tier cities also continued a hot trend in the land market, DTZ Debenham tie Leung released 18th data show that hot spots are to the return of first-tier cities in the land market, commodity residential churangjin and premium rates are dramatically increased.
East regional comprehensive analysis of Wu Huimin, head of residential services at DTZ noted that the benchmark developers increase investment in land market in 2013, and structurally leans toward the provincial capital cities in first-tier cities and some of the hot spots. "Benchmark real estate enterprises each had 6. 4 sales would give 1 Yuan for a land reserve. Sales of the top 15 nationwide real estate enterprises, such as vanke, Kanaji is even more so. For every 1. 7 the profit will come up 1. ”
It is clear from the near term, the heat will continue to support the people of the city at the end of this high price rises expected.
Or collapse of the property market at the end of "free city"
Statistics recently released data showed January 2013-in November, nationwide apartment sales area of the growth rate in January-point down from October; homes were growing faster than in the January to October fell back 1. 5%.
Industry analysts believe that major cities have recently tightened "restriction of limited loan" policy, wait-and-see mood in the market has increased. In the North after the Guangzhou-Shenzhen property market regulation have to up the ante, two or three-tier cities soon followed suit, new deal for 18 cities have now published regulation. Highlights: advance the new deal the Securities and Exchange Commission charged several second-tier cities, an increase in second homes down, tighten the non-domicile residents purchase conditions locally.
Shanghai centaline property one store manager told reporters that the policy after the more obvious impact on the store of second-hand House transaction. Relative to the prior weekend, customers with a decline in 50%.
Senior Statistician of the NBS City Division Liu Jianwei said that house prices rose faster in the early cities to further increase the intensity of the real estate market regulation improves second suite of transaction costs, increase the supply of affordable homes. In particular the responsibilities of the Executive meeting of the State Council decided to consolidate real estate registration, establish a unified registration system of real property, the market has cooled.
Market analysts point out that upgrading local regulation to some extent increased housing costs and delaying some demand, and thus have an impact on market expectations. December a nationwide housing volumes will continue to decline, coupled with late tightening in Bank lending, property market or into the "free city" of transition.
Long-term property market regulation mechanism will gradually exerting force
Experts pointed out that in the long run, the real estate market regulation instruments such as taxation, land, finance should also be used multi-pronged approach to increasing coordinated and pertinence of. Credit means flexibility, should adhere to reflect a differentiated support needed to limit speculation; the land control most directly, house prices rose significantly in the cities should be accelerated to increase the supply of land for housing, increase land use efficiency, ease the contradiction between supply and demand; at the same time the Government should expeditiously improve the real estate tax system.
The CPC Central Committee on several major issues of comprehensive reform referred to in the decision, "the establishment of the integrated urban and rural construction land market" and "accelerated real estate tax legislation and to advance reforms in due time" and other initiatives. Industry insiders believe, this will have an impact on the real estate market.
Wu Huimin believe that house price inflation is expected to remain strong due to the property market, first half of 2014 first-tier cities or the emphasis will be on presale card management, especially of high-end items pre-sale permit issued will be more cautious. If the Government in the second half of 2014 introduced with long-lasting control enabled property tax policies, will work with current pilot policies is significantly different in Shanghai and Chongqing. It will inhibit investment in speculative demand more accurately, protection and improvement requirements.
Looking into the property market in 2014, Wu Huimin forecasts, were introduced in the last quarter of 2013 place regulatory policy, market expectations will be "cool", but given the inertia of 2013 active turnover expected in 2014 trend in the housing market will remain stable in the first half.
新华网上海12月21日电（记者郑钧天、魏宗凯）国家统计局18日发布的11月份全国70个大中城市住宅销售价格统计数据显示，虽然11月份70个大中城市房价环比涨幅整体继续收窄，但一线楼市的房价上涨幅度依然不小。
年末，开发商在土地市场掀起新一轮拿地热潮的同时，各地方政府也在密集收紧楼市限购政策。可以想见，2014年“调控冷”与“预期热”现象或将并存于各地楼市。在我国房地产市场调控长效机制逐步成型的背景下，明年房价走势将保持平稳。
北上广深连续3个月涨幅超20％
国家统计局18日发布的11月份全国70个大中城市住宅销售价格统计数据显示，北上广深等一线城市房价连续第三个月同比涨幅超过20％，其中，北京为21．1％，上海为21．9％，广州为20．9％，深圳为21．0％。
一线楼市的二手房市场也异常火热。数据显示，11月70个大中城市二手住宅价格与去年同月相比，价格上涨的城市有68个。北上广深四大一线城市同以“两位数”的涨幅遥遥领先，其中，北京20．1％的同比涨幅令人咋舌。
一线城市的土地市场也延续着火热的态势，戴德梁行18日发布数据显示，土地市场热点正向一线城市回归，其商品住宅用地出让金和溢价率均明显上升。
戴德梁行华东区综合住宅服务部主管伍惠敏分析指出，标杆开发商在2013年内加大土地市场投入力度，在拿地结构上向一线城市和部分热点省会城市倾斜。“标杆房企每有6．4元的销售额就会拿出1元来进行土地储备。全国销售额排名前15位的房企，如万科、金地等则更是如此。每有1．7元的利润就会拿出1元来拿地。”
显然，从近期来看，年末地市的火热仍将支撑民众本已居高不下的房价上涨预期。
年末楼市或陷“有价无市”
国家统计局近日发布数据显示，2013年1月－11月份，全国商品住宅销售面积增速比1月－10月份回落1个百分点；住宅销售额增速比1月－10月份回落1．5个百分点。
业内分析认为，近期主要城市相继收紧了“限购限贷”政策，市场观望情绪也有所加重。在北上广深楼市调控相继加码后，二、三线城市正陆续跟进，目前已有18个城市公布调控新政。多个二线城市新政强调了预售证管控，调高了二套房首付比例，收紧了非本地户籍居民购房条件等。
上海中原地产一家门店经理告诉记者，自政策出台后，对门店的二手房交易影响较为明显。相比之前的周末，客户带看量下降了5成。
国家统计局城市司高级统计师刘建伟也表示，前期房价上涨较快城市进一步加大了房地产市场调控力度，提高了二套房交易成本，增加了保障性住房供应。特别是国务院常务会议决定整合不动产登记职责、建立不动产统一登记制度，使市场交易有所降温。
市场分析人士指出，地方调控升级将在一定程度上增加购房成本并延缓部分置业需求，进而对市场预期产生影响。12月全国住宅成交量或将继续下滑，加之年末银行信贷的从紧，楼市或进入“有价无市”的过渡期。
楼市调控长效机制将逐步发力
专家指出，从长远来看，房地产市场调控还应利用财税、土地、金融等手段多管齐下才能不断增加协调性与针对性。信贷手段灵活性强，应坚持体现差别化，支持刚需，限制投机；土地调控最为直接，在房价上涨明显的城市，应加快采取增加住宅用地供应，提高土地利用效率，缓解供求矛盾；同时政府应尽快完善有关房地产的税收制度。
《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》中提及，“建立城乡统一的建设用地市场”以及“加快房地产税立法并适时推进改革”等举措。业内人士认为，这都将会对房地产市场产生影响。
伍惠敏认为，由于一线楼市房价上涨预期依然强烈，2014年上半年，一线城市或将强调预售证管理，尤其是高端项目的预售证发放将会较为谨慎。若政府在2014年下半年出台具备长效调控功能的房产税政策，也将会与当前在上海和重庆的试点政策有明显不同。其将更准确的抑制投资投机性需求，保护自住及改善型需求。
展望2014年楼市，伍惠敏预测，2013年第四季度出台的地方调控政策，将对市场预期产生“心理降温”，但鉴于2013年市场活跃成交的惯性作用，预计2014年上半年住宅市场走势仍将保持平稳。
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