Go homepage(回首页) Upload pictures (上传图片) Write articles (发文字帖)
The author:(作者)aaapublished in(发表于) 2013/12/24 8:41:46 CASS report said total Central and local government debt almost 28 trillion
"Global times, Lei Cao," held at the Chinese Academy of social sciences, economic Division, 23rd "China's national balance sheet analysis of the international seminar", release of the China's national balance sheet 2013 report. Vice President of the Chinese Academy of social sciences Li Yang made the keynote speech at the meeting, analysis of research results.
According to the report, China's national net worth in 2011 to more than 30 billion trillion yuan. National asset-liability rate is on the rise, increases the risk of debt. China's State assets in 2007-2011 years, from five Yuan to 284.7 trillion yuan, total debt increased from 118.9 trillion to 242 trillion. Report, China's net asset value calculated in accordance with wide scope of sovereignty, in 2011, about 87 trillion yuan, calculated in accordance with narrow-gauge only 21.6 trillion yuan. Among them, the year the national net worth increases of less than GDP, indicating that GDP indicators flawed, some of the invalid investment resources and environmental activities are included in GDP, thus requiring these parts will be deducted in the wealth creation; on the other hand, inventory surge in the percentage of total assets, showing China's overcapacity problem is very serious.
Report, the Central Government and local government total debt close to 28 trillion, accounting for 53% per cent of GDP. Local government debt 19.94 trillion, should cause concern. In addition, leverage the enterprise sector has reached 113%, over 90% threshold in OECD countries, in all statistics is number one in the country, are alarming.
By the end of 2012, China's household sector balance 16.1 trillion yuan of bad loans, percentage for 31% per cent of GDP in 2012, non-financial corporate sector debt balance 58.67 trillion, 113% per cent of GDP accounting for; the Central Government and local government debt adding up, get 2012 gross government debt at the end of 27.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 53% per cent of GDP. Only with the balance of the bonds issued by the financial sector as its debt, at the end of 2012, a financial institution bond balance amounts to 9.13 trillion yuan, 18% per cent of share of GDP. If the non-financial enterprises, residents, the financial sector and the Government sector debt adding up, then society reach 111.6 trillion of debt, accounting for 215% per cent of GDP. This means that leverage has been high for the whole society, deleveraging inevitable.
From a total view, China's total debt level is lower than in most developed economies, but South Africa are higher outside the other BRIC countries, belonging to the moderate level is in the mild and controllable stages. However, because of China's fast rising debt level in recent years, the parties should remain vigilant about this, cannot afford to sit idly by.
It also pointed out that, if the implementation of the current pension system by 2023, nationwide workers ' endowment insurance that a financing gap, cumulative balances will be exhausted by 2029, by 2050, employee pension cumulative gap will reach 802 trillion yuan, accounting for 91% per cent of GDP. In addition, the society by 2050 China 11.85% total pension costs as a proportion of GDP, this level will be roughly the same as current levels of some of Europe's generous welfare state.
(Original title: Chinese Academy of social sciences: China's level will be reached in 2050-European welfare State benefits)
【环球时报记者 曹磊】中国社科院经济学部23日举行“中国国家资产负债表分析国际研讨会”，发布《中国国家资产负债表2013》报告。中国社科院副院长李扬在会上发表主旨发言，就研究成果作分析。
该报告显示，中国的国家净资产在2011年超过300亿万亿元。国家整体资产负债率呈上升趋势，债务风险相应提高。其中中国的国家总资产在2007至2011年间，从284.7万亿元增加到546.5万亿元，总负债从118.9万亿元增加为242万亿元。报告指出，中国主权资产净值按照宽口径计算，在2011年约为87万亿元，而按照窄口径计算仅为21.6万亿元。其中，国家净资产增加额持续小于当年GDP，表明GDP指标存在缺陷，一些无效投资甚至破坏资源环境的活动都被计入GDP，从而需要在财富形成中将这些部分扣除；另一方面，总资产中存货占比激增，显示出中国的产能过剩问题非常严重。
报告指出，中央政府与地方政府加总的债务接近28万亿，占当年GDP的53%。其中地方政府债务19.94万亿，须引起高度关注。另外，企业部门杠杆率已达113%，超过OECD国家90%的阀值，在所有统计国家中高居榜首，值得警惕。
截至2012年末，中国住户部门未尝贷款余额16.1万亿元，占GDP比重为31%；2012年，非金融企业部门债务余额58.67万亿元，占GDP比重为113%；将中央政府债务和地方政府债务加总，得到2012年末政府债务总额27.7万亿元，占GDP的比重为53%。仅以金融部门发行的债券余额作为其债务，2012年末，金融机构债券余额合计9.13万亿元，占GDP比重18%。如果将非金融企业、居民部门、金融部门以及政府部门的债务加总，那么全社会的债务规模达到111.6万亿，占当年GDP的215%。这意味着全社会的杠杆率已经很高，去杠杆在所难免。
从总量上看，中国的总债务水平低于大多数发达经济体，但比南非之外的其他金砖国家都要高，属于适中水平，尚处于温和、可控阶段。 不过，鉴于中国的债务水平近年来上升较快，各方应当对此保持警惕，绝不可坐视不管。
报告同时指出，如果执行现行养老保险体系，到2023年，全国范围职工养老保险即出现资金缺口，到2029年累计结余将消耗殆尽，到2050年职工养老金累计缺口将达到802万亿元，占当年GDP的比例达到91%。另外，到2050年中国全社会总养老金支出占GDP的比例将为11.85%，这一水平将与当前欧洲一些高福利国家的水平大致相当。
(原标题：社科院：中国将在2050年达到欧高福利国福利水平)
赞