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The author:(作者)aaapublished in(发表于) 2013/12/24 8:47:47 Study showed that 11 provincial total fertility below the policy fertility
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By 2010, China 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) low total fertility rate has been steady at depth, only 1.481, and steadily falling trend, the main driving force was no longer a family planning policy, but development.
The above analysis, from Zhejiang University, Zhejiang University policy simulation laboratory of the Institute of population and development research for many years--the fertility level assessment and adjustment of fertility policy – based on the analysis of actuality of the fertility level in mainland China.
Actual fertility rates lower than policy fertility
Leading members of the research team, described Yin Wenyao researcher at Zhejiang University, the "Eleven-Five" period, 11 provinces the actual fertility rate has been below the policy of fertility (that is in full accordance with the existing situation of birth birth policy), urban areas in all provinces of the country, and actual fertility rates are in a deep low.
Study also pointed out that the main driver of declining fertility, is no longer the current family planning policy, but development. Outstanding fertility and vigorous period of urbanization in women of childbearing age than in the total population and of women of childbearing age, high levels of non-agriculturalization, movement of population out of proportion, as well as urban production, lifestyles and cultural assimilation of the concept on the agricultural population. "Developments which contribute to the declining fertility trend has reversed. "Said Yin Wenyao, current fertility policy, it was difficult to dominate people's actual fertility behavior, so that fertility stabilized at a reasonably low level.
New policy on fertility rates are not raised a backlash
"Second child alone" policy after the rebound in fertility ever raised? The study said, there is a possibility of policy rebounding, the East and North-East of the town and other key areas, family planning policies better; Central and Western rural young women's multiple births the average is 4.12%. Fertility policy adjustments improve fertility rates rebound through gradual policy effective regulation, would not cause substantial backlash in fertility rates.
The Beijing News reporter Wei Ming
(Original title: 11 provinces of fertility total fertility below the policies)
■ 相关新闻
到2010年，我国大陆31省（自治区、直辖市）的总和生育率已稳定在深度低水平，仅有1.481，并呈稳中有降态势，主要推动力也不再是计生政策，而是发展。
以上分析，来自浙江大学人口与发展研究所、浙江大学政策仿真研究室多年的研究成果——《生育水平评估与生育政策调整——基于中国大陆分省生育水平现状的分析》。
实际生育率低于政策生育率
研究团队的主导成员，浙江大学人口所尹文耀研究员介绍，“十一五”时期，11个省份的实际生育率已经低于政策生育率（即完全按照现行生育政策生育的情况）；全国所有省份的城镇地区，实际生育率都处于深度低水平。
研究还指出，生育率下降的主要推动力，已不再是现行计划生育政策，而是发展。突出表现为生育旺盛期育龄妇女比总人口和育龄妇女的城镇化、非农化水平高、人口外出流动比例大，以及城镇生产、生活方式和文化观念对农业人口的同化作用。“发展促使生育率下降的趋势已不可逆转。”尹文耀说，现行生育政策，已难以主导人们的实际生育行为，令生育率稳定在合理的低水平。
新政策不会引发生育率强烈反弹
“单独二孩”政策启动后，究竟会不会引发生育反弹？该研究分析称，有可能引起政策性反弹的城镇、东部和东北部等重点地区，计划生育政策基础较好；中、西部农村年轻一代妇女多胎生育比例平均只有4.12％。生育政策调整完善中的生育率反弹可通过渐进式策略实施有效调控，不会引起生育率大幅强烈反弹。
新京报记者 魏铭言
（原标题：11省实际生育率低于政策生育率）
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