Go homepage(回首页) Upload pictures (上传图片) Write articles (发文字帖)
The author:(作者)aaapublished in(发表于) 2014/12/10 8:30:05 Next year’s economic growth target， or reduced， accelerating investment and financing system reform
Fang Ye Zhao Jing-journalists reporting from Beijing
The central economic work Conference is causing concern. Last Friday (December 5) Politburo meeting reveal signal characteristics of China's economy is "toughness, foot, swing space great potential." After a weekend of fermentation for two consecutive weeks of rising stock market broke through 3,000 points on Monday. For the 2015 economic policies and areas of focus, from the Government and the civil, there is all kinds of speculation.
According to the economic information daily, Xinhua understanding and predicting in 2015, China's macro-control, or will seek to steady growth, promoting reform and restructuring, risk and other goals of balancing. Specific policies, economic growth targets or about the rate cut, mixed ownership reform of investment and financing system reform will be further accelerated, "along the way" and other major economic strategy are expected to implement.
"Macroeconomic policies in the new normal, a major change in macroeconomic objectives are diverse trends. "The President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of financial strategy reporter for Gao Peiyong told the economic information daily said the new normal" new "has at least three meanings: first, the current economic situation in China has changed; second, change their sessions for the judgment; third, the decision-making thought for China's economic development is also being adjusted. From 2008 to 2010, growth is the overriding task, but too many problems facing China, macro-economic policy could no longer be a single. This means that China's current macro-economic policy resources must be assigned to more than one position.
Based on this understanding, the 2015 target for economic growth this year of decline increases the probability of 7.5%. Guan Qingyou, Executive Dean of Minsheng securities believes that cut the target twice in the history is always under downward pressure on the economy, "passive slow-down" steadily last year stood at 7.5%, no reduction in power, probably this year is lower than 7.5%, downgraded smoothly. 7.5% target to be completed next year, will further increase in difficulty.
Is the slowdown in potential growth trend of changes in population structure be upheld. Second, larger downward pressure on real estate investment, infrastructure still an outlier. Third, with the Fed raising interest rates, monetary easing is hampered.????Considering the fast growth in previous years, the two to achieve the 2020 goal to double over the next 5 years just to maintain 6.6% pace. Cao Yuanzheng, Chief Economist of China also told the economic information daily said from this year's target for new employment progress, under the existing economic structure, China's economic growth as long as more than 6% will be able to complete tasks, and apparent decline in employment than ever before. "According to our forecasts, economic growth next year, probably in 7.2%, I don't know what the State would cut next year's economic growth target, from the employment point of view there is room. ”
Economists believe that growth targets lowered, from a certain point of view, are also reserve space for faster reforms. The tone of the meeting 2015 is "key year for deepening reforms," and offered to "pay close attention to reform." , Economist with guotai Junan securities analyst Ren Zeping appears, this means that the reform will be the 2014 programme preparatory phase into 2015 landed a crucial period. In his view, in 2015, will unswervingly press ahead with economic reforms, launched an annual feature, but also long-term institutional reforms, improving the quality of economic reform programmes, focus on reform measures of the landing. 2014 deep 1-7 meetings to the consideration of restructuring State-owned enterprises, taxation, finance, social security, land, judicial and other reforms will be implemented step by step.
According to the national development and Reform Commission said, investment and financing system in the next few years will still be the focus of our work. This year in seven areas next year will continue to focus on investment and financing system reform, sources say, is expected to further expand in the area surrounding the reform of investment and financing.
Senior fellow at the Institute of international finance of the Bank of China Zhou Jingtong speculates that by 2015 in order to deepen restructuring as the main line, cancellation and further reduce examination and approval items, expanding the rights of autonomous decision-making of enterprises, especially the Central enterprises, State-owned enterprises, enterprise investment subject position.
"Along the way" and other major economic strategy will be seen as the focus of economic work next year. Guan Qingyou believes that "neighborhood" is the most important for China's medium-and long-term national strategies. Because it means that China's diplomacy will form a pattern of all-round opening up, while regional synergy and will speed up the transformation and upgrading of industry.
Academic Committee of development and Reform Commission, Secretary-General of Chinese officials that, in "along the way" of the building, China will focus on resource-based industries and labor-intensive industries, in the national development of energy, resources, market along outer triceps out of industries such as, and thus drive the output of products, equipment and services.
Transfer mode structure, highlighting innovation drive, strengthen risk management, enhance human security, as is the goal of 2015, macro-control. Among them, the restructuring would be put in a more important position, which depends in large part on implementation of fiscal policy. Deputy Director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of quantitative and technical beijingers believe that at present, the domestic new points of economic growth is still more difficult to build strong support, continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy is necessary. Under the new normal of slower revenue growth, fiscal policy should make efforts to adjust the structure of expenditures, improve the efficiency of fiscal funds.
Innovation driving long-term economic growth promoting effect, require sustained support policy. China economic reform Research Foundation says Fan Gang, Director of the Institute of national economy, after more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China began to gradually have the innovation ability of enterprise. The "Thirteen-Five" period, this factor of innovation's contribution to China's economic growth should be better than the past. In order to make this potential need policy support.
赞