How to evaluate hand-destroyed-Nokia′s Elop Elop, Microsoft, Nokia-IT information

Nokia′s former CEO Stephen Elop has recently found a job. The stars had to single-handedly overlord of the mobile phone sector collapsed, finally broken Microsoft sold his old Club, the achievements of the modern legend of Trojan meter.

The irony is, no matter how anecdotal public ridicule he, such a person in the technology industry′s position has been in prison is not only honorable retired from Microsoft, get a generous pension, twinkling in the Telstra got a post of Chief Strategy Officer.

Telstra′s leaders even highly Elop: he has "deep technical experience", and "born to user expectations."

Elop has what kind of talent I am not sure, but one thing is for sure is that in the eyes of leaders, Nokia′s pot, and we cannot back on he body.

About how he was battered Nokia, a former employee of Nokia Tomi Ahonen, wrote a sensational article.

The article, before he took office, Nokia is the industry′s absolute overlord, despite Apple′s challenge, but the function and Symbian Smartphone performance still climbing steadily. Nokia has a very good channel, brand, just improve Symbian gradually, fully able to maintain this advantage.

For example, six months after he took over as CEO, Nokia′s Symbian smartphone users for increased twice times the iPhone, profit contribution even to the whole 40%. IPhone only influential in the high-end market segment, and mass-market Smartphone supremacy remains Symbian. Android is far from mature, and rival Bao an Android, Motorola bet result, 19 per 100 users will choose to leave, and Nokia′s Symbian machine more popular.

A good performance, the development of sound pillars of business, do not see the need to just blindly give up.

After taking office, however, Elop, bold choice of adventure, given up Symbian, all bets on Microsoft systems. It was an incredible move, looking uncertain, no logic behind. If it is not a conspiracy, it can only be interpreted as a radical response to the challenge.

This reaction, was named "Elop effect".

This article stood on the Nokia middle management positions, think Smartphone trends do not necessarily dominated by Apple and Android, Symbian has a great chance of success, was he relinquish.

For this view, I believe the Nokia Board of directors who do not agree with.

First of all, when the tide of technological change comes when a business tend to have two kinds of coping:

One is wary of doing, Arch of a stroke; A are risky investments, give it a try.

The former are likely to survive, or it could be boiled frog, unwittingly marginalized; the latter is likely to die soon, also possible restructuring, in fact, no one can accurately predict.

Perhaps, the slow change of traditional industry, first coping is right. For example, FMCG, or luxury, the cycle of change in terms of decades, companies had enough time to adjust their strategies to adapt to change.

In the technology industry, the cycles of change very quickly, every ten years, a generation earlier, Motorola, Ericsson, Siemens mobile, Alcatel mobile phones as behind the times and has been buried. Improve themselves can ensure that advantage? You are kidding me? Motorola made a risky mistake, but that transition slowly, mired in losses again failed to turn over.

Losers, and Nokia′s Board of Directors for the sense of crisis has a strong understanding of nature, for the initiative to change the value of identity. But how to change it, there are three:

1, worked with Intel to develop meego systems. This cooperation began in February 2010, announced in September 2011 to give up and die before the official product launch. The results of this project are predictable. System since 2004, began the development of the iPhone, the iPhone generation listed has undergone three years to 2010 for 7 years. Challenger has been grinding on for 7 years, hurricanes have formed, Nokia apparently hasty approval system in the short term it is difficult to overtake, but time waits for no one.

2, joined the Android bandwagon. Android Development starting from 2003, Polish time longer than Apple system, although not perfect, but its open concept, no doubt more in line with the trend of the times and more can receive support from third-party vendors.

3, select the Microsoft System.

In fact, from the very beginning, birth defect of Nokia′s Symbian system is recognized, it will be excluded from the options, otherwise it will not work with Intel to develop meego. However, the regret is that meego slow progress, it is difficult to place the responsibility, in this case, it had only two options for Android and Microsoft.

Select the Android has become the general trend, or select just the birth of Microsoft Intelligent System?

For followers of the industry, the problem is almost never needs to be considered, but as an industry leader, the issue is more tangled.

Nokia was thinking--if you choose Android, Nokia is going to vanish and all, first, would be difficult and competitors such as Samsung, Moto brand segment, profit declines, secondly, it will lose the power of the industry chain. Especially the latter, as industry leader Nokia, which cannot be tolerated.

If the partnership with Microsoft, Nokia as an industry leader, first, the enormous bargaining power, leading Microsoft′s Smartphone value chain and, secondly, it will be Nokia′s unique brand of symbols obtained additional profits. Microsoft and the Android technology, Nokia thinks the difference is not large, with their industry leading channel advantage can completely erase this tiny weaknesses.

Microsoft, Intel, meego, are in line with the direction of Nokia′s interests. Only after an assessment, Nokia believes Microsoft technology than Intel′s more mature. In other words, after after a full calculation of interests, Nokia′s Board of Directors is confident, does not believe they are at risk, from Saipan to Intel, from Intel and Microsoft, in their eyes, is a better solution for progressive.

As regards the choice of Elop, in cooperation with Microsoft in transition should be finalized only after decisions. In other words, Nokia chose Elop, they need an appropriate mandate holders. You know, as a Finland company, Nokia, more than 100 years, has never made an American as CEO, and the CEO must also be Microsoft′s top executives.

Is not a coincidence.

In fact, such industries as a leading Nokia, failed due to blind confidence, abound in corporate history, such as CHANGHONG:

More than 10 years ago, CHANGHONG is the domestic television industry boss, when after the establishment of the industry transition to a flat trend, there are two options: 1 LCD, 2, plasma. Most of the enterprises have opted for LCD, such as TCL, Skyworth and Hisense, KONKA, CHANGHONG chose to bet only the plasma. The project investment of 8 billion yuan, CHANGHONG directly into the wall.

CHANGHONG′s investment decision was made in 2007, the decision maker is Ni Runfeng proud disciple of Zhao Yong. And Ni Laoda worshipped different marketing style, Zhao Yong as his successor, is famous for its emphasis on technology in the industry. This technology preferences, as well as on the status of their faith, the Rainbow into the pit.

Yes, compared to LCD, plasma technology threshold to higher prices to sell more expensive, this is a great temptation.

However, keep in mind that, in fact, as early as 2005, Sony, Toshiba and Japan had dropped out of big plasma camp, to aggressively into the Rainbow when only Panasonic technology advocates insist. Technology has been very clear, all the outsiders to see clearly, but long still not hesitate to jump into the hole.

The poison in the Rainbow, just like Nokia, he believed his position to reverse the trend, and to achieve higher brand premium and monopoly of the industry chain.

However, this did not happen.

Each technological change was a test of life and death. Under normal circumstances, the second, the third would hold together chasing the most simple technical routes, sailing through crises, and even overtaking.

Boss, chances to be wrong is much greater. Either in order to maintain the advantage, swayed by conservative until they are obsolete or, in order to achieve higher profit margins, higher hurdle for development of adventure "special route".

The former is to die, which is to die, especially the latter, outsiders believed to be magical madness, the risk of failure is very high, but the boss is still not there, because they tend to overestimate their capacity.

怎样评价亲手毁掉诺基亚的埃洛普 - 埃洛普,微软,诺基亚 - IT资讯

诺基亚的前CEO埃洛普最近又找到工作了。这位明星人物曾经以一己之力将手机界的霸主弄垮，最后以破烂价卖给老东家微软，成就了一段现代木马计的传奇。

讽刺的是，无论坊间大众怎样嘲笑埃洛普，此君在科技行业的官位一直坐的很牢，不但光荣的从微软退休，拿到一笔不菲的退休金，转眼又在澳洲电信谋得了一个首席战略官的职位。

澳洲电信的领导们甚至高度评价埃洛普：他具备“深厚的技术经验”，以及“对用户期望的天生感觉”。

埃洛普有怎样的才华我不太清楚，但有一点可以确定的是，在领导们的眼中，诺基亚的锅，并不能简单的背在埃洛普身上。

关于埃洛普是如何弄垮诺基亚的，有一个诺基亚的前员工Tomi Ahonen曾经写过一篇颇为轰动的文章。

文章认为，在埃洛普上任之前，诺基亚是行业的绝对霸主，虽然受到了苹果的挑战，但是功能机和塞班智能机的业绩仍然在稳步攀升。当时的诺基亚拥有着很好的渠道、品牌优势，只要逐渐完善塞班系统，完全能够保持住这一优势。

比如埃洛普接任CEO之后的半年，诺基亚增加的塞班智能机用户是iphone的两倍，利润贡献甚至占到整体的40%。iphone只在高端细分市场有影响力，在大众市场的智能机霸主仍然是塞班。当时的安卓也远未成熟，竞争对手摩托罗拉押宝安卓的结果就是，每一百个用户就会有19个选择离开，相对起来，诺基亚的塞班机更受欢迎。

一个业绩良好，发展稳健的支柱业务，实在看不到贸然放弃的必要性。

然而埃洛普就任之后，大胆的选择了冒险，放弃了塞班，全盘押注微软系统。这是一个不可思议的举动，看起来前途未卜，没有逻辑支持。如果不是阴谋，就只能解释为对挑战的过激反应。

这种反应，被命名为“埃洛普效应”。

该文站在诺基亚中层人员的立场上，认为智能机的潮流并不必然由苹果和安卓主导，塞班也是有很大成功可能性的，完全是埃洛普自废武功所致。

对于这种观点，我相信诺基亚的董事会们是不会认同的。

首先，当技术变革的潮流袭来的时候，一家企业往往有两种应对方式：

一种，是谨慎的做好自己，日拱一卒；一种，是冒险投资，放手一搏。

前者，有可能继续生存，也有可能是温水煮青蛙，不知不觉就被边缘化了；后者，有可能死的很快，也有可能成功转型，其实并没有人能准确预知。

或许，在变革缓慢的传统行业，第一种应对方式是正确的。比如快消品，或者奢侈品，变革的周期以数十年计，企业们有足够的时间去调整战略，适应变化。

而在科技行业，变革的周期非常快，每十年就一代，早先的摩托罗拉、爱立信手机、西门子手机、阿尔卡特手机都因为跟不上时代而先后被埋葬了。完善自我就能保证优势？你在逗我呢？摩托罗拉又犯过什么冒险的大错，不过就是转型慢一点罢了，就此深陷在亏损的泥潭中再也没能翻身。

失败者历历在目，诺基亚的董事会对于危机感自然有着强烈的认识，对于主动变革的价值也更加认同。但是怎么变革呢，方向有三个：

1，与英特尔合作开发meego系统。这个合作从2010年2月开始，2011年9月宣布放弃，还没等正式产品推出就夭折了。这个项目的结果其实是可以预见的。iphone的系统从2004年就开始研发了，到iphone一代上市经历了三年时间，到2010年已经有7年了。挑战者已经打磨了7年时间，飓风已经形成，诺基亚仓促立项的系统在短期内显然难以追上，而时间已经不等人了。

2，加入安卓的潮流。安卓系统从2003年开始研发，打磨的时间比苹果系统还长，虽然并不完美，但其开放的理念，无疑更符合时代潮流，也更能得到第三方厂商的支持。

3，选用微软系统。

其实从一开始，诺基亚就认识到了塞班系统的天生缺陷，将它排除在了选项之外，否则也不会和英特尔合作开发meego。然而，很遗憾的是，meego进展缓慢，难以寄托重任，在这种情况下，也就只剩下安卓和微软的两个选项了。

究竟选择已成大势的安卓呢，还是选择刚刚诞生的微软智能系统呢？

对于业界的跟随者来说，这个问题是几乎不需要考虑的，但是作为一个行业老大，这个问题就比较纠结了。

诺基亚是这么考虑的——如果选择安卓，诺基亚就将泯然众人，第一，将难以和三星、摩托等竞争对手形成品牌区隔，造成利润的下滑，第二，也将丧失了对于产业链的掌控权力。尤其是后者，这是诺基亚作为行业老大，所无法容忍的。

如果和微软合作，诺基亚作为行业老大，第一，将获得巨大的议价能力，主导微软智能机的价值链；第二，这将成为诺基亚的独特品牌符号，获得额外的附加利润。至于微软和安卓的技术水平，诺基亚认为差别并不大，以自己行业龙头的渠道优势，完全可以抹平这一点微小的劣势。

微软也好，英特尔的meego也好，都是符合诺基亚的一贯利益方向的。只不过经过评估后，诺基亚认为微软的技术比英特尔更成熟。也就是说，在经过全面的利益计算之后，诺基亚的董事会是胸有成竹的，并不认为自己是在冒险，从塞班到英特尔，从英特尔到微软，在他们眼中，已经是一个递进的更优解决方案。

至于对埃洛普的选择，应该是在与微软合作的转型决策做出之后才敲定的。换句话说，是诺基亚选择了埃洛普，他们需要一个合适的任务执行者。要知道，作为一家芬兰公司，诺基亚一百多年来，从来没有让一个美国人当过CEO，而这个CEO偏偏还是微软的高管。

一切并不是巧合。

其实，诺基亚的这种由于身处行业老大地位，因盲目自信造成的失败，在企业史上比比皆是，比如长虹：

十几年前，长虹是国产电视行业的老大，当整个行业向平板转型的大潮流形成之后，有两个选择：1，液晶，2，等离子。大部分的企业都选择了液晶，比如TCL、创维、海信、康佳等，只有长虹选择了押注等离子。这个项目投资80亿元，直接将长虹推向了绝境。

长虹的投资决定是2007年作出的，决策者是倪润峰的得意弟子赵勇。与倪老大推崇营销的作风不同，赵勇作为接班人，在业界中一向以重视技术著称。正是这个技术偏好，以及对自己行业地位的信心，将长虹推入了大坑。

是的，相比起液晶，等离子的技术门槛要更高，价格可以卖的更贵，这是一种巨大的诱惑力。

但是，要记住，其实早在2005年，索尼、东芝等日本大牌就已经纷纷退出等离子阵营了，到长虹大举杀入的时候，也就只剩下技术倡导者松下还在坚持了。技术的发展趋势已经很明朗，所有的局外人都看的清楚，但长虹仍然义无反顾的跳进坑里。

长虹所中的毒，跟诺基亚一模一样，他相信以自己的行业地位，能够扭转趋势，并借此实现更高的品牌溢价和产业链垄断。

然而这并没有发生。

每次技术变革，都是一次生死的考验。一般情况下，老二、老三们都会抱团追逐最简单易行的技术路线，顺利度过危机，甚至弯道超车。

而老大，犯错的几率则要大得多。他们要么为了保持优势，患得患失保守应对，直至被时代淘汰；要么为了实现更高的利润率，冒险发展门槛更高的“独特路线”。

前者是等死，后者是作死，尤其是后者，被外人认为是不可思议的疯狂举动，失败的风险非常之高，但是老大们仍然乐此不彼，因为他们往往对自己的能力产生高估。