Millet of adolescence, there are infinite possibilities-puberty, millet, Lei, phone-IT news

For a while, bad-mouthing millet's voice on media and social networks and more, shipments, rankings, and more were taken, but said millet began to die, downhill, will be the next, and so on. Just two years ago, the media is full of voices on the Internet thought, millet patterns, some bad-mouthing of a traditional industry. Popular media unreliable.

Reverse thinking as a serious person when thinking over the Internet, and I was singing process run contrary to, everyone now millet is not optimistic about the time, I would like to sing a different tune, seeing how the prospect of millet, that media said this decline.

First of all, we have a set of data

2012 millet shipped 7 million in 2013, 18 million units in 2014, 60 million in 2015, 70 million. If we draw a graph this data, the data is below the.

The year 2014 is an abnormally high growth, also is thinking of the Internet's hottest time. 157% 2013 growth, 233% growth in 2014, according to the people's thinking, it is easy to take the growth rate of the past to predict the future. So people's expectations for 2015 rice shipments are very high, Although millet shipment target of 80 million Lei said, but a lot of people are looking at 100 million. But in fact, the tree can't grow to the sky, a business model to achieve the largest market share is limited. High expectation and practical reality knocked together by various constraints, constitutes the present "millet recession on the" basis .

Any negative factors is magnified. People have in the right half of the brain-filling curve graphic, like a parabola. Our early ancestors famously summed up "extremes meet", optimistic to the extreme is not desirable, pessimism is equally objectionable. If we shipped in 2014 as the Internet caused by thinking a bubble, minus 10 million shipments, the whole curve is not looking much better all of a sudden?

In my opinion, millet as a puberty in teenagers. Adolescent of juvenile all are has may, may a years to Shang channeling a 10 cm, also may a years only long 4 cm, we without to because a juvenile last year long has 10 cm this year and long has 10 cm so on expect he next year also long 10 cm, such annual 10 cm of growth always has a end, this is growth of limit, long to Yao so high of after all is minority.

Can see some of the limits of millet is?

I don't think so.

Puberty the young budding time, occasionally cartoony, but sometimes suddenly surprising, when it is normal. Sometimes performed particularly well, but sometimes doing all kinds of stupid things, how else will have a "second" the word? Collision needs through a variety of tests to explore their boundaries with others, also know your own strengths and weaknesses, and find its position to form their own view of three, get ready for real later in the society. Millet is now at this stage, still have a long way in the future.

Relative to the other players at the table such as Huawei, oppo, VIVO, millet is a new entrant, played a few good cards, impress, but now faces the old players a wealth of experience, millet also needs to further prepare to fight a protracted war. Millet now face a disadvantage is that your own game the old master was accustomed, but currently there are no new killing, the momentum appears passive. Millet has the advantage, still has time to Polish his hand combinations, there are many more possible.

Millet is the core product of cell phones

I said in the previous article, the mobile phone industry is the core competitiveness of supply chain and channel. Every industry has one each of the rules, not because there is a new way of thinking to break this rule. For now at least, no new ground-breaking technology, mobile phone operators still have to follow the law .

Supply chain management, especially in the core parts of the management is very important. Millet in recent years has been seeking a breakthrough in this area. By Qualcomm, nVidia, mediatek's chips are major, such as the company's practices. This inevitably controlled by others, all depends on Qualcomm chips look, easier to crash with other companies in the product release cycle, "Rob started" occur frequently. Starting after the production stage is likely to be cutthroat, CP sold when they are out of stock. Mobile phone parts many, there is a core component of short supply mobile production do not come out, that's what rules and restrictions in the manufacturing sector.

Huawei, because of years of sustained investment chip development, Kirin K950 tells a very good "China chip" story on the chip supply may have the autonomy and the right to bargain. Millet can be any breakthrough in the field of chip, of course, is in the core components of the supply chain management have a bigger say. According to media reports, millet own pine cones Electronics has in this part some of the results. This is a photo of millet, compared with Huawei, millet this card will not, something to look for.

In addition, the Lei now personally responsible for supply chain, should also see supply chain management has become a short Board of millet. Supply chain management if you straighten out, millet is no longer plagued by shortages, also completed a short Board.

Channel management, like Huawei, oppo, VIVO early layout offline, is already out of the cards. Online development of lively, offline retail stores are indispensable. Online shopping has the advantage of seeing for yourself, many people are more trusted store ; in addition, offline retail stores as a portal, to bring customers impulse buying. I have on more than one occasion to take foreigners to millet's home shopping, every time they buy a whole lot of millet products, this is can't do online. Millet before few years focused on online and offline channels opening up have diminished. Millet will this year intensify its pioneering offline channels, this is another card.

In fact, from February Lei announced plans to enter the line in a millet 5 release now, millet had 25 stores of millet, 6 cities opened 7 stores of millet shop. There are 3 million in sales, 5 months of sales of tens of millions. Millet's "open shopping experience", that is, directly from the shelves and cash on delivery, no staff in the process, which is drawing on foreign supermarket self-checkout model, online shop under trial for millet and millet retail and shopping experience, could also spark revolutionized the retail areas. Over time, millet completed layout of channels in major cities nationwide, with the online brand of heat into offline sales, the Delta is still considerable.

Outside of the mobile device, millet and MIUI and MIUI connecting various intelligent hardware

Millet has 200 million Internet users, which is unmatched by other mobile phone makers. So far, it is praise of MIUI than other UI, it began by millet's products, is millet's unique advantages. Millet wanted to do, is the year of the Wintel Alliance, software, to promote sales of hardware, hardware connectivity between devices, to enhance the stickiness of the software.

Millet fields of Internet experience to mobile phones, it's hard for traditional mobile phone manufacturers, even if they came up with some innovations, but no in-depth experience of Internet users and applications, it is hard to do.

This has made simple and easy to use search engine like Google, Microsoft want to do one, but I can't always do well, because of all the development experience is based on Microsoft Windows and not on the Web. Similar things are happening in Google,. Facebook account system at the outset, to achieve the interaction between users, and Google as its search birth, many years later also for the Google account real social system could not be implemented. MIUI rapid iteration is somewhat similar, possibly one or two functional easy to be friends to imitate and learn from, but based on the user experience of many of the underlying software architecture needed to support the functionality, if not have the sense at the outset, at a later time through rapid iterative improvement of the product is very difficult.

In many cases, appears to be free chess set up, could play an unexpected role in the future. Such as millet bracelet, previously just a step counter tool, but as a wearable device shipments of the world's second, now also have access to pay possible . Look at the streets scenes of various scan the QR code to pay Alibaba and Tencent have wanted to have their own bracelets to pay for equipment, millet bracelets have become the new electronic purses possible. These are some of the possible combinations of cards in the future.

Millet ecological chain has invested 55 team, of which $ 1 billion valuation of the Unicorn has 4. Future ecological chain may have more reactions, interaction between different products, out of some very interesting new gameplay. As can be seen in the smart home market has a number of products and consumption upgrading in the future under the background of new smart home ecosystem, these and other mobile phone manufacturers did not immediately.

Some say millet will repeat the mistakes where the customer

This is entirely the wrong industry experience to apply. Clothes of such fast moving consumer products are facing a rapidly changing customer and tens of thousands of competitors, inventory management is a major challenge. Mobile phone is different, a cell phone for two years, two years after the change, may this year leading the company was beyond next year. Android mobile phone market, Samsung, millet, Huawei's leading two or three years, it's hard to win, but just a few.

Just as the market of household appliances, Chunlan, CHANGHONG had industry first, but now the market has changed. As long as efforts straight ahead in the industry, not a second chance, do respect the law of things, running, and cultivate their core competitiveness, will definitely have their place.

One might ask, you say, other companies have also set up

It depends on different stages of the history and growth of the company. Some companies are already in middle age, some are older, and millet in puberty, just hit the first challenge. An adolescent teenager said, "so you" is ridiculous. You know, emerge from adolescence to adulthood career, separated by a long period of time in the middle.

Millet because going too fast before, team-building, management ability, and so there are a lot of short boards, from a guerrilla leader to grow a large troop formation leader was a first-level upgrade process, many experiences need time to accumulate. Many people in adolescence to success this time unknown, endure loneliness and lost no one sought after, sometimes even to the eye from the others, but gold will shine, these results can only be as long a later on.

Millet of adolescence, confusion is possible, there may be setbacks, it is way on the road of growth. When people during puberty began to understand, not all people are like myself, sometimes the effort may not necessarily be accepted. None of that matters, important millet need to think about what you want, what to do, what not to do, what to do, millet formed its own unique values, product concept, create your image, the real future of rite.

青春期的小米，仍有无限可能 - 青春期,小米,雷军,小米手机 - IT资讯

这一阵，媒体和社交网络上唱衰小米的声音多起来了，出货量、排名等等都被拿来说事儿，无非是说小米开始不行了，走下坡路了，会是下一个凡客等等。而仅仅在两年前，媒体上的声音充斥的是互联网思维，小米模式，对传统行业一片唱衰之声。可见媒体上流行的话靠不住。

作为一个逆向思维倾向严重的人，在互联网思维甚嚣尘上的时候我是唱了反调的，现在在大家都对小米不看好的时候，我也想唱唱反调，看看小米的前景到底如何，是不是如媒体所说就此走下坡路了。

首先我们来看一组数据

2012年小米出货量700万部，2013年，1800万部，2014年6000万部，2015年7000万部。如果我们把这组数据画个图，数据是下图这样的。

2014年是一个增长率异常高的年份，也恰恰是互联网思维最火热的时候。2013年增长率157%，2014年增长率233%，按照人的思维倾向，很容易拿过去的增长率来预测未来。所以人们对2015年小米的出货量的期望非常高，虽然雷军说小米出货量目标是8000万，但很多人是望着1亿的。但事实上，树不可能长到天上去，一种商业模式能达到的最大市场份额是有限度的。过高的期望和实际受到各种条件约束的现实碰在一起，就构成了现在“小米衰退论”的基础。

任何不利的因素开始被放大。人们已经在脑补曲线右半部份的图形，想象成一条抛物线了。而我们老祖宗早有一句名言概括“物极必反”，乐观到极致不可取，悲观到极致同样不可取。如果我们把2014年的出货量看作互联网思维引发的一个泡沫，把出货量减去1000万，整个曲线是不是一下子好看多了？

在我看来，小米就像一个进入青春期的少年。青春期的少年一切皆有可能，可能一年往上窜个10厘米，也可能一年只长4公分，我们不必要因为一个少年去年长了10厘米今年又长了10厘米因此就指望他明年也长10厘米，这样每年10厘米的增长总会有个尽头，这也就是增长的极限，长到姚明那么高的毕竟是少数。

那小米的极限是不是已经能看到了？

我看未必。

青春期的少年正是暂露头角的时候，可能偶尔有神来之笔，有时候却又忽然让人大跌眼镜，这都是很正常的时候。有时候表现特别好，有时候却又干出各种傻事，要不怎么会有“中二病”这个词呢？总需要通过各种试验各种碰撞探索自己与他人的边界，也因此知道自己的优势和短板，找准自己的位置，形成自己的三观，为以后真正在社会上立足做好准备。小米现在正处在这个阶段，未来的路还长。

相对于牌桌上其他老玩家如华为、oppo、vivo，小米就像是一个新进入者，打了几手好牌，惊艳全场，但现在面对老玩家丰富的经验，小米还需要有更长远的打持久战的准备。现在小米面临的劣势是，自己的打法让老师傅慢慢熟悉了，而又暂时没有新的杀招，气势上显得被动。而小米的优势在于，还有时间可以打磨自己的牌的组合，还有更多的可能。

小米的核心产品是手机

在之前的文章里我说过，手机行业的核心竞争力仍然是供应链和渠道。每个行业有每个行业的规律，不会因为有了一个新的思维就打破这一规律。至少到目前，没有新的突破性的技术出现，手机业者还是得遵循这一规律。

供应链管理，尤其是核心零部件的管理是非常重要的。小米这几年也一直谋求在这一领域有所突破。采用高通、nVidia、联发科等公司的芯片是各大公司的惯常做法。这就难免受制于人，一切要看高通联发科眼色行事，在产品发布周期上容易与其他公司撞车，“抢首发”频频发生。首发过后，量产阶段也容易被卡脖子，正大卖的时候却没货。手机零部件众多，有一个核心部件供货不足手机就生产不出来，这就是制造业的规律和限制条件。

华为因为多年持续投入芯片研发，麒麟K950讲了一个很好的“中国芯”的故事，在芯片供应上可以有自主权和议价权。小米如果能在芯片领域有所突破，自然是能在核心部件的供应链管理上有了很大的话语权。据媒体报道，小米嫡系的松果电子已经在这一部分有些成果。这是小米的一张牌，相对于华为，小米这张牌将出未出，值得期待。

另外，雷军现在亲自负责供应链，应该也是看到了供应链管理已然成为了小米的短板。供应链管理如果理顺，小米不再饱受缺货之苦，也是补齐了一块短板。

渠道管理，像华为、oppo、vivo早早的布局线下，已经是出过牌了。线上发展的再热闹，线下零售店也是不可或缺的。线下购物的优点在于眼见为实，不少人还是更信赖实体店；另外，线下零售店作为入口，能带动客户的冲动消费。我就不止一次带老外去小米之家购物，每次他们都买不少小米的产品，这是在线上做不到的。小米之前几年偏重于线上，对线下渠道的开拓有所松懈。今年小米会加紧开拓线下渠道，这是另一张牌。

事实上，从2月份雷军在小米5发布会上宣布要进军线下到现在，小米已经有了25个小米之家店，6个城市开了7家小米之家商场店。目前有3家日销量过百万，5家月销量过千万。小米之家的“开放式购物体验”，也就是直接从货架上拿货并付款，过程中无需店员，这属于对国外超市自主结帐模式的借鉴，而小米在线下开店不断摸索适合小米的零售模式和购物体验，也可能引发零售领域的一场革新。假以时日，小米完成全国各大城市的渠道布局，借助线上的品牌热度转化为线下销量，其增量仍然可观。

手机之外，小米还有MIUI，以及MIUI连接的各类智能硬件

小米有2亿联网用户，这是其他手机厂商无法比拟的。到目前为止，人们对MIUI的称赞还是超过其他UI，这是小米赖以起家的产品，也是小米独到的优势所在。小米想做的，是当年Wintel联盟所做的事情，软件做好，以此促进硬件的销售，硬件设备间实现互联，以此增强软件的黏性。

小米可以把互联网领域的一些经验用到手机上，这是传统手机厂商很难做好的，即使他们想到了一些点的创新，但没有对互联网用户场景和应用的深度体会，仍然很难做好。

这就像Google做出了简洁易用的搜索引擎，微软想到去做一个，但始终做不好，因为微软的所有开发经验都是基于Windows而不是基于Web的。类似的事情也发生在Google身上。Facebook一开始就有账号系统，能实现用户之间的交互，而Google因为其搜索出身，好多年以后还在为Google的账号系统而努力而无法实现真正的社交。MIUI的快速迭代有些类似，可能一两个功能点容易被友商模仿和借鉴，但基于用户体验的功能有许多需要底层软件架构的支持，如果不是一开始就有这方面的sense，要在以后的产品中通过快速迭代改进是很难的。

许多时候，一些看起来是闲棋的落子，可能在未来发挥意想不到的作用。比如小米手环，早先只是一个计步工具，但作为出货量全球第二的可穿戴设备，如今也有了接入支付的可能。看看大街小巷各种扫描二维码支付的场景，阿里巴巴和腾讯纷纷想有自己的手环支付设备，小米手环完全具备成为新型电子钱包的可能。这些都是一些未来可能的组合牌。

小米生态链已经投资了55个创业团队，其中估值过10亿美金的独角兽已经有4个。未来生态链可能有更多的化学反应产生，在不同的产品间形成互动，碰撞出一些非常有趣的新玩法。比如在智能家居市场已经可以看到一些产品，未来在消费升级的大背景下会有新的智能家居生态出现，这些，也是其他手机厂商暂时做不到的。

有些人说小米会重蹈凡客的覆辙

这完全是错误的行业经验套用。衣服这类快销品面临的是口味急速变化的客户和成千上万个竞争对手，库存管理是一大难题。手机则不同，一部手机一般使用两年，两年以后就换了，可能今年领先的公司明年就被人超越了。Android手机市场，三星、小米、华为各领风骚两三年，很难有常胜将军，但玩家就这么几个。

这就像当年的家电市场，春兰、长虹都曾经行业第一，但现在市场第一早已易主。只要在这个行业一直往前努力，不投机取巧，做尊重行业规律的事情，坚持长跑，培养自己的核心竞争力，一定会有一席之地。

有人可能会问，你这说法，套在其他公司身上也成立

那就要看不同的公司的历史和成长阶段了。有些公司已经是中年，有些已经是老年，而小米还在青春期，刚刚遇到第一个挑战。对一个青春期的少年说“你以后就这样了”是可笑的。要知道，从青春期崭露头角到成年以后的事业有成，中间还隔着很长一段时间。

小米因为之前走的太快，团队建设、管理能力等都还有很多短板，从一个游击队长成长为大兵团首领是一个一级一级升级打怪的过程，许多经验需要靠时间来积累。很多人在青春期到事业有成这段时间默默无闻，忍受着寂寞和无人追捧的失落，有时候甚至还要面对他人的白眼，但是金子总会发光的，这一切结果只能是等成长期过了以后再看。

青春期的小米，可能有迷惘，可能有挫折，这都是成长道路上的必经之路。人在青春期的时候开始明白，不是所有的人都喜欢自己，有些时候努力了也不一定被人认可。这些都不重要，重要的是小米需要想清楚自己想要什么，该做什么，不该做什么，该怎样做，形成小米自己独特的价值观、产品观，打造好自己的形象，真正迎接未来的成人礼。