Each leading 35 years: mobile phone market the brand why alternating lead? -Samsung, Huawei, millet-IT information
Recently, with the second quarter of 2016, China smartphone sales figures issued the comments start up, from sales figures, Huawei, OPPO,vivo days are very good, especially the rose of the OPPO and vivo amazing, so article praising OPPO,vivo mode.
Actually, this class articles often is timeliness of, 2012 millet rise of when, almost all media are in praised millet of "fast" "focused", Samsung rise of when, almost all media are in said Samsung of vertical integration,iPhone hot of when, all media are in worship jobs, again ahead, function machine times, Motorola of three meters law was as success secret, Nokia of brand potential to lang salt flat as commercial success case.
So, the brand leading 35 years behind what laws? Now his future do scenery?
First, leading 35 years behind
Mobile this things come into our lives for more than 20 years of time. Mobile phones in China, but more than 10 years. We look at the various brands of landscape history and not much text.
Original phone is as a high-tech communications products to enter our lives, before the phone is BB. Chinese companies for a long time without the ability to produce mobile phones.
This time, the mobile phone market homogenization, phone call, text message (SMS early advanced features).
Age of homogenization, brand, design and marketing. But the Chinese brands generally have a good impression of the white world, so popular at this time are Nokia, Motorola and Ericsson. Korea and Japan are second-rate productions, made in China there are no products.
In the era of black and white, Chinese manufacturers have introduced Korea's hardware solution, TCL, Haier, Hisense, represented by some manufacturers made the phone, but weak technology, stability is poor, not what position in the market.
In the age of homogenization, brand, marketing, strong advantages, stability of Chinese-made mobile phones belonging to the edge.
Later was photographed in black and white, color screen phone with a music, in this conversion, the rise of Japanese and Korean mobile phone. Because Japan and South Korea in the LCD screen, camera, CMOS accumulation was stronger than European and American manufacturers.
This is the first round of reshuffle, Motorola V3, the designed artifact, but soon ran into trouble, Ericsson is Sony merged Nokia initially has been hit very badly, then changes in a timely manner, into Carl Zeiss photography skills a successful counter attack.
Japanese and Korean manufacturers in Japan because the usual petty (focusing on local products), no difference in the Chinese market, while Samsung's mainstream brands, followed by Nokia.
That is, when there are major changes in product features and experience the technical advantage is the opportunity to catch up.
MTK chip made cell phones rise of China at this time, OPPO,vivo (was still using Backgammon brands), Jin, days both rise at this time. MTK programme while the quality is still very weak, but has been able to provide color, camera and music features.
TCL, Haier, Hisense these vendors be replaced, can't differentiate Motorola is also vulnerable. Nokia depends on its hardware and maintain differentiated the Symbian smart system, continued high prices for occupancy.
In other words, in times of technological progress, you must have the hardware or software of the moat to keep profits high. Only the brand differentiation is to be the impact of.
In 2007, the iPhone turned out in 2008, Android appears, mobile phone and entered a new stage, Smartphone PC periods.
When there are major changes in product features and experience the technical advantage is the opportunity to catch up.
In the age of intelligent machines, Apple's rise, ZTE, Huawei, millet, OPPO, VIVO the emergence of Chinese manufacturers. Samsung even follow the saved position instead of Android, Nokia has wasted its brand, has died.
Alternate function of intelligent machine, similar to the color screen camera phones instead of black and white features of the year. Universal stage King is low prices. Color camera phone era, MTK cheap fake brands rise Smartphone era, is the rise of millet.
Universal is complete, product homogeneity, brand value will return, channels, marketing will become important again.
Now OPPO,vivo and Huawei's sales, Smartphone brand value of a process.
B, OPPO,vivo and Huawei's success in what?
OPPO and Vivo is from step by step out of business, step by step when dealing with mobile phone appliances, layout of distribution channels throughout manufacturers representatives stationed around the, and later becomes the agent of the OPPO and vivo.
OPPO and the unusually close relationship between dealers and manufacturers of vivo, basic is harmed, a prosperity. When the manufacturer does not give force when dealers will try to maintain channels, and when product manufacturers to force when, won't skimp on dealer support and reward.
After the rise of the smart phone, OPPO and vivo lay of trying to do offline channels, from the city to the county town, you see blue-green home store, such large sales channel support the OPPO and vivo.
Vivo and OPPO line of high value, high interest rates, guarantees the advertising, gave dealers enough profit space below the line, forming a virtuous circle.
In fact, similar years line layout under Jin this year sales are good, just not in the top five, muffled and fortune.
Huawei is typical of later successes, Huawei do offline channels until 2012, initially very successful. But its deep pockets and adhere to the layout, and adhere to the company's high-end positioning, low-end glory to the brand.
Results by 2014 after the complete mobile computing, Huawei has a replacement for high-end brands to meet the users needs, Huawei's sales soared.
On low-end machines to the demand for high-end phones in this rotation, OPPO,vivo, and gains a lot, gionee muffled fortune, Samsung also get some benefits. Millet of low-end and high-end Apple is damaged. This results in a display on the handset sales in the second quarter of 2016 numbers is clear.
Three, who will lead in the future?
Data show that China Smartphone popularity at the end of 2014 in the city over the 90%, universal finish to start switch. Phone the normal replacement cycle is about 24 months.
That is, until the end of 2016, scenery now brand intact. In the next rotation machine surges after 2017, other brands have alternating lead opportunities.
Smart phone as a new product, the first stage is the rapid spread of cheap products , this in 2012, 2013 the Chinese market especially, millet, cool great God, glory of Huawei is a leader.
In the second stage is the low-end to the high-end brands , is now OPPO,vivo, Huawei has spawned.
The third stage, and a rotating machine, high-end brands will benefit, especially when high-end brands are middle and low priced products.
If Apple put a price, benefiting iPhone, Apple not put price, Samsung will benefit. And OPPO,vivo, and also have the chance to go further, Samsung leveled their high-end products and prices, following the third stage of the wave of change.
When fully mature, smart phone tool of the future, all consumption levels will be cured, and cost-effective products to regain their place, similar to today's PC market.
Similar to millet, Shenzhou, spirit blue, odd will regain the opportunity, margins are good shipments.
Stopped in the third round of the high-end brands will enjoy premium brands for a long time, similar to the PC industry, Lenovo, and HP.
Brands will be less and less in the Middle, and eventually mainstream brands are less than 10, and average profit margins will continue to pull down. Place, a brand leader in the third rotation. Apple, Samsung leads the probability is large, domestic brands have a chance.
Frustrated in the second wave like millet manufacturers still in the third rotation machine surges may be on the rise.
Statement : the personal view of the author only, and do not represent information positions IT.
各领风骚三五年：
手机市场各品牌为何交替领跑？ -
三星,华为,
小米 - IT资讯
近来，随着2016年二季度中国智能手机销售数字的出台，各方评论开始多了起来，从销售数字看，华为，OPPO，vivo日子都很不错，特别是OPPO和vivo的涨幅惊人，于是各方文章开始大赞OPPO，vivo的模式。
其实，这类文章往往是时效性的，2012年小米崛起的时候，几乎所有媒体都在称赞小米的“快”“专注”，三星崛起的时候，几乎所有媒体都在说三星的垂直整合，iPhone热销的时候，所有媒体都在崇拜乔布斯，再往前，功能机时代，摩托罗拉的三米法则被当作成功秘诀，诺基亚的品牌势能给郎咸平当成商业成功案例。
那么，在这些品牌各领风骚三五年的背后是否有什么规律？现在的得意者未来还会风光吗？
一、各领风骚三五年的背后
手机这个东西进入我们的生活也就是二十多年的时间。而手机在中国普及不过10多年时间。我们回顾一下各个品牌的风光史其实用不了多少文字。
最初的手机是作为高科技通讯产品进入我们生活的，在手机之前是BB机。中国企业很长一段时间是没有能力生产手机的。
这个时候，手机市场基本同质化，手机都是打电话，发短信（短信早期也是高级功能）。
同质化时代，斗的是品牌，外观设计，营销。而中国人对于白人世界的品牌一般有好感，所以这个时候热销的是诺基亚、摩托罗拉、爱立信。韩国，日本属于二流，中国国产还没有产品。
在黑白机时代，中国厂商引进过韩国的硬件方案，以TCL，海尔，海信为代表的一些厂商做过手机，但是当时技术水平比较弱，稳定性比较差，没有在市场上占据什么地位。
在同质化年代，是品牌，营销，渠道强的占据优势，稳定都做不到的中国国产手机属于边缘产品。
黑白机之后是带拍照，带音乐的彩屏手机，在这个转换中，日韩手机崛起。原因是日韩在LCD屏幕、摄像头、CMOS的积累强于欧美厂商。
这是第一轮洗牌，摩托罗拉虽然有V3这种设计神器，但是很快就陷入麻烦，爱立信被索尼合并，诺基亚初期也被冲击的很惨，后来及时变革，引入卡尔蔡司的拍照技术成功逆袭。
日韩厂商中，日本因为一贯的小家子气（注重本土产品），没有在中国市场有所作为，而三星成为主流品牌，紧跟诺基亚。
就是说，在产品功能出现大变动的时候，体验技术优势者有机会后来居上。
这个时候中国国产MTK芯片手机崛起，OPPO，vivo（当时还用步步高品牌）、金立、天语都在这个时候崛起。MTK的方案虽然品质还很弱，但是已经能提供彩屏，拍照，音乐功能。
TCL，海尔海信这些厂商被替代，不能提供差异化的摩托罗拉也陷入弱势。诺基亚依靠其硬件优势和塞班智能系统维持差异化，依然可以高价高占有率。
就是说，在技术进步时期，你必须有硬件或者软件的护城河才能保持高利润。只有品牌没有差异化是要被冲击的。
2007年，iPhone横空出世；2008年安卓出现，手机进入又一个新阶段，智能手机PC化的时期。
在产品功能出现大变动的时候，体验技术优势者有机会后来居上。
在智能机时代，苹果崛起，中兴、华为、小米、OPPO、vivo这些中国厂商崛起。三星即使跟风，保住了地位，而不用安卓的诺基亚浪费了它的品牌优势，死掉了。
智能机替代功能机的过程，类似于当年的彩屏拍照手机替代黑白功能机。在普及阶段低价为王。彩屏拍照手机时代，先是MTK各种低价山寨品牌崛起，智能手机时代，是小米崛起。
而当普及完成之后，产品同质化，品牌的价值会回归，渠道，营销会重新变得重要。
现在OPPO，vivo和华为的热销，是智能手机品牌价值回归的一个过程。
二、OPPO，vivo和华为成功在哪？
OPPO和vivo都是从步步高里面分出来的企业，步步高在涉足手机之前做家电的时候，就在各地布局分销渠道，厂家驻扎各地的代表，后来就成了OPPO和vivo的代理商。
OPPO与vivo的代理商与厂家之间的关系异常密切，基本是一损俱损，一荣俱荣。当厂家产品不给力的时候，经销商会努力维持住渠道，而当厂家产品给力的时候，也不会吝啬对经销商的支持与回报。
在智能手机兴起以后，OPPO和vivo努力做线下渠道的铺设，从一线城市到县城乡镇，你总那个看到蓝绿两家的门店，这种庞大的渠道支持了OPPO和vivo的销量。
而OPPO和vivo走的高价高利率路线，既保证了广告的力度，又给了线下经销商足够的利润空间，形成良性循环。
其实，同样多年做线下布局的金立今年销售也不错，只是没有进入前五，闷声发财而已。
华为则是后来成功的典型，华为2012年才开始做线下渠道，初期很不成功。但是华为财大气粗，坚持布局，坚持华为的高端定位，低端交给荣耀品牌。
结果是2014年智能手机完成普及之后，华为有一个高端品牌来满足用户的换机需求，华为销量大涨。
在低端机换到中高端手机这一轮换机需求中，OPPO，vivo和华为收益多多，金立闷声发财，三星其实也得到一些好处。低端的小米和高端的苹果受损。这个结果在2016年二季度的手机销量数字上显示的很清楚。
三、未来谁将领跑？
数据显示，中国智能手机在2014年底在城市普及率超过了90%，普及完成开始换机。而手机正常的换机周期大约是24个月。
就是说，2016年底之前，现在风光的品牌不可撼动。2017年之后的下一轮换机潮中，其他品牌有交替领跑的机会。
智能手机作为一个新兴产品，第一阶段是廉价产品快速普及，这个在2012年，2013年中国市场特别明显，小米，酷派大神，荣耀华为是领跑者。
第二阶段是低端换到中高端品牌，就是如今OPPO，vivo，华为的风光时期。
到了第三阶段，又一轮换机，高端品牌会收益，特别是高端品牌有中低端价位产品的时候。
如果苹果放下身价，则iPhone受益，苹果放不下身价，则三星会受益。而OPPO，vivo和华为也有机会更进一步，把自己的高端产品与三星拉平价格，承接第三阶段的换机浪潮。
当市场完全成熟，智能手机完全工具化以后，各个消费层次会相对固化，性价比产品重新获得一席之地，类似于今天的PC市场。
类似于神舟的小米、乐视、魅蓝、奇酷会重新获得机会，利润微薄但是出货量不错。
在第三轮站住的高端品牌会长期享受品牌溢价，类似于PC行业的联想，HP。
而中间品牌会越来越少，最终主流品牌少于10个，而且平均利润率会继续拉低。能在第三轮换机中站住脚的品牌会领跑。苹果、三星领跑概率较大，中国国产品牌也有机会。
像小米这样在第二轮换机潮中失意的厂商依然有在第三轮换机潮中崛起的可能。
声明：本文仅代表作者个人观点，不代表IT资讯立场。