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published in(发表于) 2016/8/12 12:18:46
Searching: the fourth pole of China’s Internet,

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Searching: the fourth pole of China's Internet-NetEase, Jingdong, millet, drop-IT information

Just as you can't find out who invented "North Canton" appellation, like BAT language where it has not verified, this combination of three letters, is synonymous with the first echelon of the Internet in China, and is also a shiny card.

Now, more people are keen to find a BAT fourth of China's Internet, popular candidates list is long: NetEase, millet, East of Beijing, and even drops, they are intentionally or unintentionally trying to squeeze into the BAT+X Club's preparations, but always separated by one centimeter distance.

Yesterday the Western media in groundswell, China is a large cottage country, cottage but exclaim in unison the Western technology companies starting today China, but it still can't obscure the fact that BAT's presence in China, continues to be the United States shadow combinations of Internet giant across the Pacific.

So I want to find Chinese dark horse outside of BAT, one of the shortcuts is to look at the United States FLAG (Facebook, Google, Amazon, led the British), whether there is any slip through the big fish or any other rising star in China. From this perspective, who is China's Internet part IV is not clear, but it probably comes from a new set of uncharted territory.

NetEase: the market is not short of another company

NetEase micro-circle of friends into almost a fourth of China's Internet, like good corporate reputation management, NetEase's management by market capitalisation are the industry leaders.

The past five years, NetEase is share, magna cum laude, shares from more than 30 dollars rose to nearly $ 200, has almost doubled 6 times more than doubled earlier, Baidu's share rose 50%, SINA shares barely budged, Sohu's share price fell even 20%.

Main factors naturally also supported shares of NetEase is performance, from 2010 to 2015, NetEase's total revenue increased 4 times more than doubled (NetEase's total revenue: 2010 $ 858 million in 2011, $ 1.2 billion in 2012, $ 1.3 billion in 2013, $ 1.614 billion in 2014, $ 2.011 billion in 2015, $ 3.52 billion. ) Growth from two main aspects:

Rapid expansion of the game business on the one hand, NetEase, a good grasp of the hand of draught, widened the gap with market third place, but the volume is still a big gap with Tencent . According to statistics from games gyroscope, according to data issued by the Committee in 2015, $ 140.7 billion in revenue of the gaming industry as a whole, of which Tencent games 56.587 billion, 40%, NetEase games 17.314 billion, 12.5% per cent.

Sources on the other hand, since e-commerce business . Is Ding kaolahai purchase items directly in the eye, are hopes of overtaking the strategic mission. NetEase announced in the first quarter of 2016, outstanding electrical contractor business, email, e-commerce, and other business net income grew by 257.8%, in which cross-border e-commerce platform kaolahai shopping and boutique business choice NetEase, a great potential of the come from behind.

However, NetEase and the BAT is not an order of magnitude, not fourth of top contenders. There are three main reasons:

I, too like Tencent is a natural mishap in NetEase . From the perspective of business, NetEase and Tencent's core business highly overlapped: the game is head of income, online media business also has a good reputation, and layout on a mailbox, the difference is, in these areas, NetEase and Tencent are not on an order of magnitude, in the short term, do not think beyond the company.

Second, NetEase's two core businesses, current policy will have suffered a major bottleneck . Radio new into issued of hand tour new rules, for NetEase high-speed growth of hand tour business bludgeoning, will significantly elongated hand tour products of approval cycle, and reduced its profit of life cycle; was placed hopes of across border electric business business also also suffered has China Commerce of control, despite across border electric business new rules was has was suspended a years implementation, but damokesi of sword still hanging head.

Three, NetEase failed to break audience word of mouth since childhood . China's Internet is always cock wire Gets the world, NetEase's attitude, directly to exclude the root user. NetEase news comment and today's headlines, and segments of Internet users in China can be seen apart, can also see niche and mass of the great divide. However, from choice NetEase, youdao NetEase news series to, you can clearly see, NetEase products for middle-class consumption upgrading air precise judgement, NetEase open another Pandora's box that may be the future of the biggest variable.

East: just like Amazon is not enough

Jingdong closest to BAT once a candidate, but as a hapless passenger, door closing three seconds late, could only take the BAT train started slowly drift away.

From the morphological point of view, East of Beijing like the Amazon height, namely China and the United States between representatives of B2C e-commerce, has ambitions to be the world's store. However, both spirit and non-: Amazon other than online Wal-Mart also is the world's largest providers of cloud computing . Second quarter of 2016, AWS cloud services revenue of $ 2.89 billion, rose 58%, 30% per cent of total revenues of the company, and recently officially entered the Chinese market. From this perspective, aliyun surging in recent years, more like Amazon references in China .

Jingdong electrical contractor based on pluralism, financial such as layout, but unfortunately still can't shake Alipay and micro-payment market position. However, Jing dong White did well in the College market. Speed way Institute in October 2015 2015 released consumer survey found students staging Jingdong White has 34.3% of the market, behind Ali ants spend 3%.

Precisely because of the lack of imagination outside of business, especially as Amazon's reference value in China, after causing the Jingdong listed stocks flat. So, although Jingdong's revenue scale far exceeds the BAT three, but it still ranks among China's Internet dream team.

Millet: it may not be an Internet company

Ecosystem the most talked about of the companies often do not form a true ecosystem, but constantly repeating a dream, much repeated, also believes that not only the media, and even believe in themselves. It is really formed little BAT biosphere biosphere.

Decline of the phone almost a foregone conclusion, in this situation, the biosphere, the ecological chain, millet is one of the few options. Millet is such a narcissist of the biosphere, and of course the degree of narcissism, according to Le-view, is several orders of magnitude worse. Millet's "eco circle", there are three main dimensions:

Biosphere is the product of the first dimension group. From phone, and charging treasure, and hand ring to line Brigade box, and TV, millet of products line seems to in to a stream of consciousness of way in expand, from this see millet somewhat electronic industry of excellent clothing library of mean, in products level of ecological circle, millet of core competitiveness is its price, especially price war, and non-core technology, this on makes its products level ecological circle exception vulnerable.

Ecosystem of the second dimension is the Group company As of August 2016, millet ecological chain enterprises investment by up to 55, blue rice technologies has just listed a new ban, the company's flagship product, power strips and power conversion plug. Basically, the ecological chain enterprises largely millet can be classified to the manufacturing industry, such as smart bracelets, electronic scales, smart plugs, air purifiers, Water Purifier, intelligent light bulbs, little Ant of cameras, universal remote control and more. This series of chain, makes millet is more like a hardware vendor, rather than the Internet companies.

Ecosystem is groups of users of the third dimension. Heat of the rice noodles, from millet on the outcomes of the Conference by acclamation, calling frequency and can be measured, millet notebook in the last press conference, rice flour than 2014 millet 4 crazy excited when the phone has changed. In addition, the product reputation polarizing trends of millet is very obvious.

For millet for, immediately of crisis is, phone business decline zhihou, yet also volume level of business can fill revenue vulnerability (millet notebook prospects at least now see does not clear), and millet ecological chain of enterprise can building a article hardware long tail of great wall, currently also not optimistic; millet more long-term of crisis is is lost has depicting future of capacity, this is and Beijing East Freemasonry.

Drops: scenery under the worries

Today's drop, just like three years ago, millet, infinite beauty, but crisis is implied.

Scenery is, drop in travel services, almost became the only big player in this market . After the annexation of the largest local competitors, and soon in the United States without the incredible step of surrendering. In addition, the drops catch share ride, and practitioners became the most fashionable economic theories.

Also has a great deal of imagination to the last drop: hundreds of millions of registered users, and have bred new social networking platform's potential, at least has the potential to become a distribution platform for information, service; the transport trades to further integration, make it possible to cut a trillion-level market, greater valuation of growth. Compare with NetEase, Jingdong, millet, drop closer to the essence of a platform: connecting people and services.

However, the drops are still facing a fatal problem: how to make a profit? If the subsidies disappear, express price is in line with the taxi, whether the user would choose the road drops are not good drivers? If regulatory authorities lowered the gun one inch, today's economic model, would be outside the law in violation of the building? These are besides the long and short term to the last drop.

Statement : the personal view of the author only, and do not represent information positions IT.


寻寻觅觅:中国互联网的第四极 - 网易,京东,小米,滴滴 - IT资讯

就像你找不出谁最早发明“北上广”的称谓一样,BAT语出何处已经不可考证,这三个英文字母的组合,既是中国互联网第一梯队的代名词,同时也是一张闪亮的国家名片。

现在,更多人热衷于寻找BAT之外中国互联网的第四极,热门的候选公司名单很长:网易、小米、京东,甚至滴滴,它们都在有意无意地做好挤入BAT+X俱乐部的准备,但始终隔着那么一公分的距离。

西方媒体昨天还在齐声指责中国是山寨大国,今天却又异口同声惊呼西方科技公司开始山寨中国,但是这依然无法掩盖这样一个事实,BAT在中国的存在,依然是对美国互联网巨头在太平洋彼岸的影子组合。

所以想要寻找中国BAT之外的黑马,捷径之一就是看看美国在FLAG(脸书、谷歌、亚马逊、领英)之外是否还有漏网大鱼或者其他冉冉升起的新星在中国的对标者。从这点看,谁是中国互联网第四极目前并不清晰,但它极有可能来自一个全新的未知领域。

网易:市场上不缺另一个腾讯

网易几乎在微信朋友圈中成了中国互联网的第四极,一如良好的公司口碑管理,网易的市值管理也堪称行业翘楚。

过去五年,网易无疑是中概股的优等生,股价从30多美元涨到近200美元,几乎翻了6倍多,同期,百度股价只上涨了50%,而新浪股价几乎没有变化,搜狐的股价甚至还下跌了20%。

支撑网易股价上涨的主要因素自然还是业绩,从2010年到2015年,网易的总营收增长了4倍多(网易总营收:2010年8.58亿美元,2011年12亿美元,2012年13亿美元,2013年16.14亿美元,2014年20.11亿美元,2015年35.2亿美元。)增长主要来自两方面:

一方面是游戏业务快速扩张,网易很好地抓住了手游的风口,拉大了与市场第三位的差距,但是与腾讯的体量仍有较大差距。据游戏陀螺统计,根据游戏工委发布的数据,2015年整个游戏行业的总收入为1407亿,其中腾讯游戏565.87亿,占比40%,网易游戏173.14亿,占比12.5%。

另一方面来源自电商业务。考拉海购是丁磊直接在盯的项目,被寄予弯道超车的战略使命。在网易公布的2016年第一季度财报中,电商业务的表现突出,邮箱、电商及其他业务净收入同比增长257.8%,其中跨境电商平台考拉海购和精品电商网易严选,大有后来居上之势。

但是,网易与BAT比仍不在一个量级,并非第四极的最有力竞争者。原因主要有三点:

一,太像腾讯是网易的一个天生硬伤。从业务构成看,网易与腾讯的主营业务高度重叠:游戏均是收入大头,在线媒体业务同样拥有良好口碑,在电商和邮箱上均有布局,所不同的是,在以上领域,网易与腾讯均不在一个量级上,短期内,也看不出超越腾讯的可能。

二、网易的两大核心业务,目前均遭遇了重大政策瓶颈。广电总局新进颁布的手游新规,对于网易高速成长的手游业务当头棒喝,将显著拉长手游产品的审批周期、降低其盈利的生命周期;被寄予厚望的跨境电商业务同样也遭遇了中国商务部的管制,尽管跨境电商新规被已经被暂缓一年实施,但是达摩克斯之剑依然高悬头顶。

三、网易未能从小众口碑中突围。中国互联网历来是得屌丝者得天下,而网易的有态度,直接把草根用户排除在外。看看网易新闻评论和今日头条评论,就能看到中国互联网用户阶层的泾渭分明,也能看出小众和大众的巨大鸿沟。但是,从网易新闻、有道系列到网易严选,可以清晰地看到,网易产品对于中产阶层消费升级风口的精准判断,而这也许是未来网易打开另一个潘多拉魔盒的最大变数。

京东:只有形似亚马逊还不够

京东一度是距离BAT最近的候选者,但就像一个运气不佳的旅客,比车门关闭晚到了三秒钟,只能拍着缓缓启动的BAT列车渐行渐远。

从形态上看,京东与亚马逊高度相似,分别是中国和美国两国B2C电商的代表,都有志于成为全球的万有商店。但是,二者却神似而形非:亚马逊除了在线沃尔玛之外,还是全球最大的云计算提供商。2016年二季度,AWS云业务营收达到28.9亿美元,同比增长58%,占公司总营收的30%,并在不久前正式宣布进军中国市场。从这点看,阿里云近几年的风起云涌,更像是亚马逊在中国的参照物

京东也在电商基础上尝试多元化,比如布局金融,但遗憾的是目前依然无法撼动支付宝和微信支付的市场地位。不过,京东白条在高校市场表现不错。速途研究院于2015年10月发布的《2015大学生分期消费调查报告》显示,京东白条拥有34.3%的市场份额,仅落后阿里系的蚂蚁花呗3个百分点。

正是由于电商之外想象空间的缺乏,特别是无法作为亚马逊的中国参照物进行估值,导致京东上市之后股价表现平平。所以,尽管京东的营收规模远超BAT三家,但是却依然无法跻身中国互联网的梦之队。

小米:也许并不是一家互联网公司

那些对于生态圈最为津津乐道的公司,往往并没有形成真正的生态圈,而是在不断在重复一个梦想,重复得多了,不仅仅媒体也相信了,就连自己也相信了。反而是真正形成生态圈的BAT却很少提生态圈。

小米手机的衰落几成定局,在这种形势下,提生态圈、生态链,也是小米为数不多的选择。小米正是这样一个生态圈的自恋者,当然其自恋程度,照乐视比,还是要差好几个量级。小米的“生态圈”,主要有三个维度:

第一个维度的生态圈是产品群。手机、充电宝、手环到行旅箱、电视,小米的产品线似乎在以一种意识流的方式在拓展,从这点看小米有点电子业的优衣库的意思,在产品层面的生态圈,小米的核心竞争力在于其性价比,特别是价格战,而非核心技术,这就使得其产品层面生态圈异常脆弱。

第二个维度的生态圈是公司群截止2016年8月,小米所投资的生态链企业达55家,其中青米科技刚刚挂牌新三板,这家公司的主打产品插线板和电源转化插头。基本上,小米的生态链企业基本上都可以归入制造业行业,比如智能手环、电子秤、智能插座、空气净化器、净水机、智能灯泡、小蚁摄像机、万能遥控器等等。这一系列的生态链,使得小米更像是一家硬件厂商,而非互联网公司。

第三个维度的生态圈是用户群。米粉的热度,事实上从小米历次发布会上的鼓掌、呼喊的频率和声量可以进行测量,在最近一次的小米笔记本发布会上,米粉的表现相比2014年小米4手机时的撕心裂肺的兴奋已经不可同日而语。此外,小米的产品口碑两极化的趋势十分明显。

对于小米来说,当即的危机是,手机业务衰落之后,尚未同样量级的业务可以填补营收漏洞(小米笔记本前景起码现在看并不明朗),而小米生态链的企业能否构建一条硬件长尾的万里长城,目前也不乐观;小米更长远的危机则在于失去了描绘未来的能力,这一点和京东同病相怜。

滴滴:风光之下的隐忧

今天的滴滴,就像是三年前的小米,无限风光,却又暗含危机。

风光之处在于,滴滴在出行服务领域,几乎成为这个市场的唯一大玩家。在吞并了本土的最大竞争对手快的之后,很快就让在美国无所匹敌的优步臣服。此外,滴滴还搭上分享经济的顺风车,成为最时髦经济理论的实践者。

滴滴还拥有巨大的想象空间:数亿注册用户,使得具备孕育全新社交平台的潜能,至少也有可能成为一个信息、服务的分发平台;对交通行业进一步整合,使其有可能切入一个万亿级的市场,拥有更大的估值成长空间。与网易、京东、小米相比,滴滴确实更接近一个平台的本质:连接人与服务。

但是,滴滴仍然面临一个致命问题:如何盈利?如果补贴消失,快车价格与出租车一致,用户是否还会选择路况不熟的滴滴司机?如果相关监管部门的枪口放低一寸,今天的分享经济样板间,会不会成为法外之地的违章建筑?这些都是滴滴的近忧远虑。

声明:本文仅代表作者个人观点,不代表IT资讯立场。






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