Began to take control of the physical world? Future 15 years of great technological changes-physical, technology-IT information
According to foreign media reports, today Forbes article looking for the next 15 years to influence the world five major techniques, they is a new type of computer architecture, genomics, nanotechnology, energy storage technology, and robotics. Points out that as these technologies complement each other for common development, human beings will begin to take control of the physical world.
Looking back on 15 years ago, 2001 World Internet penetration is still only just 5%, network speed is also very slow, which has now been developed to 50%; cell phone has become popular at that time, but only if the call to send text messages, the popularity of smart phones is far; Google is just a start-up.
Even if Internet access is only to send and receive e-mail, or provision of basic information services. Video site YouTube was scarcely five years time, people don't know what e-business is a viable business model. Many people still don't think Amazon able to survive. Social media has not been universal.
Since then, advances in science and technology is incredible. Looking to the next 15 years, more incredible to technological developments. The past 15 years, technological development was largely limited to the virtual world; by 2030, we will see changes to the physical world.
1. new computer architecture
1965 Gordon Moore (Gordon Moore) put forward the famous Moore's law, predicted chip processing speed doubles every 18 months. For 50 years, engineers continued to practice the law of development of the chip industry. Now, however, Moore's drawing to an end, people are still trying to 3D stack as well as FPGA chip technology to extend the life cycle of law, but its effect is limited. If ultimately continued the development speed of the chip industry, we need to develop a new computer architecture.
One is quantum computing, the use of overlapping and entanglement effect in quantum mechanics, and developed a performance computer chip millions now; the second is development of mimicking the human brain neural chip, its running speed will be billions of times faster than existing computers.
Commercialization needs two new computers for several years, but is now a working prototype. As early as within ten years, we can see that the new system will change the computer industry.
2. Genomics
2003 the human genome was decoded for the first time, spending more than $ 3 billion. By 2030, human genome sequencing technologies are maturing, the cost will be less than $ 100.
At present, we have genomics in cancer treatment and other medical fields, through the genetic make-up of the patient to treatment of breast cancer and other illnesses. By 2030, the genomics combined with immune therapy, by stimulating the human immune to cancer, making cancer a curable disease.
In addition, the genome named CRISPR technology enables engineers to precise grouping of genes in cell factory in the synthesis of various functions of the organism. Inserted in bacteria and micro-organisms, for example the right genomes can make even the plastics and other materials.
3. nano-technologies
As early as 1959, physicist Richard Feynman (Richard Feynman) proposed the concept of nanotechnology--materials at the atomic level--this sounds undoubtedly science fiction at that time. This has now become a reality, such as Graphene quantum dot opens the door to new materials for human beings.
Application of nanotechnology in the future are too numerous. But achieving new material at the molecular level is still at an early stage. But by 2030, today we will be able to download software, download it by popular new physical design of new materials.
In addition, according to Feynman's vision and related technology will also generate Nano-drugs. Medical devices will be smaller than the width of a human hair to treat a single diseased cells, making health care more efficient.
By 2030, the Nano-robots will be able to directly enter the blood look for diseased cells, pathogens, or to repair a particular cell.
4. energy storage technology
Over the past 40 years, progress in energy storage technology. In 1970, the lithium-ion battery is available, the corresponding energy density and costs are rising, look at your laptop computer, batteries and even accounts for the weight and size of 90%. Since entering the era of smart phones, battery technology is revolutionizing mobile devices push, toward the smaller lower-cost development. However, as chip Moore, the current lithium-ion batteries already close technology hungry theoretical limit. Researchers are seeking alternatives, United States Argonne National Laboratory researchers at the laboratory are in the process of building the new battery technology, its capacity will be five times the existing lithium-ion battery, and cost is only available one-fifth.
5. robot technology
Robotics is another fast-growing technology fields. In the past, almost all robots have been used in heavy industry, to ensure the safety of his job away from humanity. And now, whether in battle or in a factory, robots begin working side by side with humans.
By 2030, the robots will play a greater role in daily life. A new generation of robots will be using nano-material, lighter weight and more robust; powerful neural chip configuration properties, advanced deep learning algorithm is run, can interact with humans in a natural way.
Over the past 15 years, to a large extent defined by the development of digital technology. The next 15 years, will be the depth of integration of various technologies.
More powerful performance computer architecture for human genome and molecular-level working conditions and ultimately to develop intelligent machines. New energy and new energy storage technology, will make more use of these technologies, security, and efficient.
In 2016, we were in charge of the virtual world of information. By 2030, we will begin to take control of the physical world.
开始掌控物理世界？人类未来15年的五大技术变革 - 物理,科技 - IT资讯
据国外媒体报道，今日《福布斯》撰文展望了未来15年影响世界的主要五大技术，它们是新型计算机架构、基因组学、纳米技术、储能技术以及机器人技术。文章指出，随着这些技术相辅相成，共同发展，人类将开始掌控物理世界。
回望十五年前，2001年的世界互联网普及率还仅仅只有5%，网络速度也非常缓慢，而目前已经发展到了50%；那时手机已经普及，但仅限于打电话发短信，智能手机的普及还很遥远；谷歌还仅仅是一家初创企业。
即便能够上网，也仅仅是收发电子邮件或提供一些基本信息服务。视频网站YouTube刚刚诞生五年时间，人们还不知道电子商务是一个可行的商业模式。许多人还不认为亚马逊能够生存下去。社会化媒体还尚未普及。
从那时开始，科学技术的进展令人难以置信。展望未来15年，科技的发展变化会更加让人匪夷所思。过去15年，技术的发展主要限于虚拟世界；而到2030年，我们将看到技术对物理世界产生的变革。
1.新的计算机架构
1965年戈登·摩尔（Gordon Moore）提出了著名的摩尔定律，预测芯片处理速度每18个月便会翻番。50年来，工程师们在不断力践着芯片行业的这条发展定律。然而现在，摩尔定律行将终结，人们还在试图通过3D堆叠以及FPGA芯片技术延续定律的生命周期，但其效果有限。如若从根本上延续芯片行业的发展速度，我们需要开发新的计算机架构。
其中之一是量子计算，使用量子力学中的重叠以及缠结效应，开发出性能百万倍于现在的计算机芯片；其二是开发模仿人脑的神经学芯片，其运行处理速度将比现有的计算机快上数十亿倍。
这两种新型计算机实现商业化还需要数年时间，但目前已经有相应的工作原型。最早在十年之内，我们就可以看到这些新架构将完全改变电脑行业。
2.基因组学
2003年人类基因组首次被解码，其相关开支超过30亿美元。到2030年，人类基因组测序技术将日趋完善，成本也将低于100美元。
目前，我们已经将基因组学应用于癌症治疗等医疗领域，通过患者的基因构成来治疗乳腺癌等病症。到2030年，基因组学将与免疫疗法相结合，通过激发人类自身免疫来抗击癌症，使得癌症成为可治愈的疾病。
此外，名为CRISPR的基因组技术，能够让工程师对基因实现精确编组，在细胞工厂中合成各种功能的有机体。譬如在细菌和微生物中插入合适的基因组，甚至能够让其生成塑料等物质。
3.纳米技术
早在1959年，物理学家理查德·费曼（Richard Feynman）提出了纳米技术的概念——在原子级别实现材料生产——当时这听起来无疑是科幻小说。而现在这已经成为现实，诸如石墨烯以及量子点为人类打开了新材料的大门。
未来纳米技术的应用更是不胜枚举。但目前在分子水平上实现新材料依旧处于起步阶段。但到2030年，我们能够以今天下载软件一样普及的方式下载新型物理材料的新设计。
此外，根据费曼的设想，相关技术还将产生纳米级药物。医生将通过比人类头发宽度更小的设备对单个病变细胞进行治疗，使得医疗效果更为有效。
到2030年，纳米机器人将能够直接进入血液寻找病变细胞、病原体或对特定细胞进行修复。
4.储能技术
在过去的40年中，储能技术在不断进步。1970年，锂离子电池面世，相应的储能密度以及成本都在不断上升，看看你的笔记本电脑，电池甚至占到了重量和体积的90%。进入智能手机时代以来，移动设备的革命化推动了电池技术向体积更小成本更低的方向发展。然而正如芯片行业的摩尔定律一样，目前锂离子电池已经接近了技术饿理论极限。研究人员正在努力寻求替代技术，美国Argonne National Laboratory实验室的研究人员正在着手打造新一代电池技术，其容量将是现有锂离子电池的五倍，同时成本仅仅是现有的五分之一。
5.机器人技术
机器人技术是另一个快速发展的技术领域。在过去，几乎所有的机器人都被应用于重工业，为保证安全其往往远离人类作业。而现在，无论是在战场还是在工厂，机器人开始与人类并肩工作。
到2030年，机器人将会在日常生活中发挥更大作用。新一代机器人将采用纳米材料，重量更轻，也更为坚固；配置性能强大的神经学芯片，运行先进的深度学习算法，能够以自然的方式与人类互动。
过去的15年，很大程度上由数字技术的发展来定义。而未来的15年，将是各种技术的深度融合。
性能更为强大的计算机架构将为人类在基因组以及分子级别的工作创造条件，最终开发出智能机器。新的能源，以及新的储能技术，将使得这些技术更为使用、安全、高效。
2016年，我们已经掌控了信息化的虚拟世界。而到2030年，我们将开始掌控物理世界。