United States finance professors: Uber valuation overvalued, real value of $ 28 billion-Uber, car-IT information
According to foreign media reports, take a taxi Uber's current valuation has more than 80% market value of standard and poor's 500-stock index. A Professor of finance at New York University points out that when people go into the open market, Uber's market value will have no room to grow.
New York University's Stern School of business specializing in valuation studies of asiwosi·damodalan (Aswath Damodaran) points out that Uber ran into obstacles hampering the development of many upstart companies: profits.
"The damage is very simple, but it is very difficult to make money by destroying. Car-sharing companies should be able to show support for the proposition, "Mr Damodaran pointed out in a recent blog post. "In ride sharing select continue to grow at the same time, companies that provide such services has yet to find a way to share revenues into profits ride. In support of the judgment, I have a large collection on car-sharing company information. Almost all of these companies are private companies. ”
In the analysis of some data, Mr Damodaran think Uber real value should be $ 28 billion, a valuation less than Uber latest financing valuation of $ 62.5 billion at the half. Following Mr Damodaran thinks the Uber business prospects did not in fact as expected, cause for optimism.
First: growth continues, but revenue concerns
Mr Damodaran that Uber and car-sharing industry will continue to grow at the same time, although the pace has slowed, but he fears that revenue will continue to keep up. Taking into account the Uber recently has sold the business to the Chinese company's biggest competitor in China drops China market situation particularly concerns Mr Damodaran. Although the decision to withdraw from the Chinese market to make Uber price wars to avoid deteriorating, but it will also reduce the Uber future potential revenue.
Uber operate out of other markets, the companies often provide substantial discounts and other special promotions. In the view of Mr Damodaran, it also means that Uber's business model is facing challenges. "I think a large part of Uber pointed out that maintaining revenue-related, rather than make the revenue continues to grow," he said. "In fact, looked Uber's business model is flawed, because it was also won by similar companies in a short period of rapid development. Because there is no moat protected, this business model to allow car sharing companies in cases that are not converted to profit revenue, gained rapid development. ”
The second: "Rite time"
Mr Damodaran believes that all the young company at some point will have its own "Rite time". At this stage, investors ' focus of attention will shift from growth to a profitable business model. According to the views of Mr Damodaran, car sharing industry has entered a "Rite time". "Experienced investor attention and ride-sharing usage (such as service number, number of passengers, the driver of the city) after these basic data, investors started to ride sharing company some problems involving these companies how to put this data into profits. Uber said earlier that the company was profitable in some markets. ”
Third: the operation is more expensive
At present, Uber and other ride-sharing platform does not need to treat drivers as employees, but all that could change. In addition, the car-sharing company is facing a series of regulatory hurdles, leads to their operating costs. "Seattle requirements Uber Lyft establishment of the drivers ' Association decision, may be other cities to follow, which will lead to increased spending on these two companies. As far as enforcement, the city continue to be obstacles in the way to the car-sharing company. ”
Part IV: the challenge for large companies or
Including Apple, Alphabet or Yilong·masike (Elon Musk) of many big companies, including tesilai, have hinted they will go by bus to share markets, this will also lead to problems for Uber.
"In fighting violations of taxi and car service companies in the car-sharing company has won a victory in the first stage. Second phase will be to distinguish between winners and losers of the car-sharing company, it is certainly never dull, "Mr Damodaran said.
美国金融教授：Uber估值被高估，实际价值280亿美元 - Uber,专车 - IT资讯
据外媒报道，打车应用Uber当前的估值已超过了80%标准普尔500指数成分股的市值。纽约大学的一名金融学教授就指出，当进入公开市场时，Uber的市值将没有任何增长的空间。
纽约大学斯特恩商学院专门从事股票估值研究的阿斯沃思·达莫达兰（Aswath Damodaran）教授指出，Uber撞上了阻碍许多新贵企业发展的障碍：利润。
“破坏很简单，但是想要通过破坏赚钱则非常困难。乘车分享公司应当能够展示出对命题的支持，”达莫达兰在最近发表的博客文章中指出。“在乘车分享这种选择继续增长的同时，提供此类服务的公司却仍未找到把乘车分享收入转化为利润的方式。为支持这样的判断，我收集了众多关于乘车分享公司的信息。几乎所有的此类公司均为私有公司。”
在分析了一些数据之后，达莫达兰认为Uber的真实价值应当为280亿美元，这一估值尚不足Uber最新一轮融资时625亿美元估值的一半。以下是达莫达兰认为Uber业务前景事实上并未像想象中乐观的原因。
第一：增长继续，但营收令人担忧
在达莫达兰认为Uber和乘车分享产业仍将继续增长的同时，尽管步伐有所放缓，但他担心营收能否继续跟上。考虑到Uber最近把中国业务出售给了该公司在中国最大的竞争对手滴滴出行，中国市场的情况特别令达莫达兰感到担忧。虽然退出中国市场的决定能够让Uber避免不断恶化的价格战，但它也将减少Uber未来的潜在营收。
在Uber开展业务的其它市场，该公司经常会为乘客提供大幅折扣以及其它特别推广活动。在达莫达兰看来，这也意味着Uber的业务模式面临着挑战。“我认为Uber的很大一部分指出与维持营收相关，而不是让营收持续增长，”他说。“事实上，看上去Uber的业务模式是存有缺陷的，因为它在短时期内让同类公司也获得了快速发展。因为没有护城河保护，这种业务模式准许乘车分享公司在未把营收转换为利润的情况下，获得了快速的发展。”
第二：“成年礼时刻”
达莫达兰认为，所有的年轻公司在某一时刻都将会迎来自己的“成年礼时刻”。在这个阶段，投资人关注的重点将会从增长转移至能够盈利的业务模式。依据达莫达兰的观点，乘车分享行业目前就已进入“成年礼时刻”。“在经历了投资人关注与乘车分享使用情况（如服务城市、乘客数量、司机数量）这些基础数据之后，投资人当前已开始向乘车分享公司提出一些难题，涉及到这些公司如何把此类数据转换为利润。Uber此前表示，该公司已在部分市场实现盈利。”
第三：运营更昂贵
目前，Uber和其他乘车分享平台不需要把司机看作是公司员工，但这一切可能会改变。除此之外，乘车分享公司面临着一系列的监管障碍，导致他们的运营成本上升。“西雅图要求Uber与Lyft成立司机公会的决定，可能被其他城市效仿，这将导致上述两家公司支出的增加。就执法层面而言，城市继续在向乘车分享公司设置障碍。”
第四：大公司或发起挑战
包括苹果、Alphabet还是伊隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）的特斯来在内的许多大公司，都已暗示将会进入乘车分享市场，这也将给Uber带来一些问题。
“在破坏出租车与汽车服务公司的战斗中，乘车分享公司已赢得了第一阶段的胜利。第二阶段将把乘车分享公司的赢家和输家区分开来，这肯定不会无聊，”达莫达兰表示。