Media: China's oil lines were US military control, if it be cut will collapse | energy oil and gas | | sea _ news

Japan "foreign scholar" January 14 articles, topic: analysis of China's energy security strategy in the foreseeable future, the United States naval supremacy that are hard to shake. In this context, China's strategic priority is to ensure the security of energy supply. China plans through us is difficult to control land lines, achieved with friendly supplier of oil and gas pipeline connection. If the scheme is successful, in a generation, China's New Silk Road--onshore pipelines and roads and railways – supplies fully to guarantee domestic supply of oil and gas resources.

At present, China is highly dependent on imports of oil and gas, mostly from the Persian Gulf and Africa. They mainly by United States naval control of shipping lanes for transport. If ocean energy is blocked off, paralysed or will cause China's economy to collapse and the army, China was reduced to a paper Dragon. The Pentagon firmly believes that China not open around United States under the control of the high seas in the world. Report submitted to Congress its 2016 finds that: "in view of the increasing energy demand in China, the new pipeline can only slightly ease China's reliance on maritime lifelines of ... ... It imported large amounts of petroleum and liquid natural gas ... ... Will make strategic sea lanes for China is becoming increasingly important. ”

The Pentagon's short-term, this assessment is right, but if Beijing continued dependence on energy imports by sea to develop United States long-term strategy toward China, it would be beneath carefully. Some analysts pointed out that by 2035, China's GDP will increase to us $43.7 trillion, is the European Union and the United States about 1.6 times of the forecast of about $27 trillion. China certainly have economic and financial capacity to support the development of land transportation routes, bypassing the grand plans of the current sea route. According to the United States energy information administration predicts that by 2035 Russia can meet the 85% of China's oil import demand, and demand for all natural gas imported in China. China and Russia more than more than 4,000 km-long land border, connecting Russia oil and gas fields and pipelines in Northeast China will be safe, the energy flow will not be United States cut off.

However, China should also seek to diversify energy supply. Iran is also an ideal choice of hedging, because Iran from the United States and Russia's side. While Iran and Pakistan border Southwest and Northwest China and adjacent to Pakistan. Therefore, building through Pakistan to Iran and connected to onshore oil and gas pipeline in China is wise.

United States should not underestimate China's ability to achieve energy security in the future. New Silk Road from Beijing to non-military means to respond to United States a programme for global hegemony at sea. When you create a new onshore oil and gas pipeline became fully operational, United States will not be able to cut Beijing's energy lifeline. At that time, China or not afraid to support military action to defend its core interests-to compel Taiwan unity, since Japan seized Diaoyu Islands as well as the implementation of sovereignty in the South China Sea section line. (Author Samier·Tata, Qiao Heng translation)

> Editors: Dong Zhang

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Energy oil and gas South China Sea

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日媒：中国石油线路被美军控制 若被切断将崩溃|能源|油气|南海_新闻资讯

　　日本“外交学者”网站1月14日文章，原题：解析中国的能源安全战略 在可预见的将来，美国的海上霸主地位很难被动摇。在此背景下，中国在战略上的头等大事是确保能源供应的安全。中国计划通过经由美军难以控制的陆上线路，与友好的油气供应国们实现管道连接。如该计划成功，在一代人时间里，中国的新丝绸之路——陆上管道及公路和铁路——将输送充足的油气资源来保障国内的供应。

　　当前，中国高度依赖进口石油和天然气，以来自波斯湾和非洲居多。它们主要通过美国海军控制的海上交通线进行运输。如果海运能源被封锁切断，或将造成中国经济崩溃和军队瘫痪，使中国沦为一条纸龙。五角大楼坚信，中国绕不开美国所控制的全球公海。其2016年提交给国会的报告认定：“鉴于中国能源需求不断增加，新输油管只能略微缓解中国对海上生命线的依赖度……其进口的石油和液化天然气量巨大……将使战略性海上交通线对中国日益重要。”

　　五角大楼的上述评估短期而言无疑是对的，但如果依据北京对海上能源进口持续依赖，制定美国对华长远大战略，那就有失审慎了。有分析指出，到2035年，中国的GDP将增至43.7万亿美元，是欧盟和美国预测的约27万亿美元的1.6倍左右。中国肯定有经济和金融能力支撑其发展陆地输送线路，绕过当前海上航线的宏大计划。据美国能源信息署的预测，到2035年俄罗斯可满足中国大约85%的石油进口需求量，以及中国全部的天然气进口需求量。中国与俄罗斯陆地边界长达4000多公里，因此连接俄罗斯石油和天然气田与中国东北的管道将是安全的，其能源流动不会被美国切断。

　　不过，中国也应努力寻求能源供应多样化。伊朗就是一个理想的对冲选择，因为伊朗不受美国和俄罗斯的左右。同时伊朗与巴基斯坦西南接壤，而中国西北与巴基斯坦相邻。因此，修建经由巴基斯坦将伊朗与中国相连的陆上油气管道就是明智之举。

　　美国不应低估中国在今后取得能源安全的能力。新丝绸之路是北京以非军事手段应对美国全球海上霸权的一种方案。当新建的陆上油气管道完全投入使用，美国将无法再切断北京的能源生命线。届时，中国或不再害怕用军事行动支持捍卫其核心利益——迫使台湾统一、从日本夺取钓鱼岛以及落实南海九段线内主权。（作者萨米尔·塔塔，乔恒译）

>责任编辑：张冬

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