Luo Yuan: Trump took office gives us momentum and opportunities | | Trump China and the United States _ news

Trump on January 20 as the United States the 45th President. China and the United States opened a new round of turmoil between periods, period, period.

As the Trump is a previous United States presidential personalities "individual politician" the, anti-establishment, anti-tradition, anti-globalization, erratic play, therefore, China and the United States will enter into a period of turmoil, had reached some consensus may need to reinvent. Complain, blame each other, prejudice, misunderstanding and even hostility will increase. However, at this stage, the two sides still remain in the "mouth" instead of "firecracker" stage.

Because Trump is no governing experience "facing politicians", so he and his team face the complex and volatile international and domestic affairs when there is a constant familiar process of adaptation, including breaking several somersaults, touch the wall several times, long exposure. Know which can be touched and which cannot be touched. China and the United States among the top also has a mutual observation, mutual understanding of the process and see what cooperation between the parties, what is the greatest common divisor, there is what the cards. Meanwhile, can also understand each other's strengths, weaknesses, and available places. At this stage, Trump team may make some substantive act of provocation, release some balloons, in trade issues, for example, in Taiwan on the issue, in the South China Sea issue, testing China's bottom line in the Diaoyu Islands issue and the degree of reaction and efforts. We want to be prepared.

Due to extremely strong temperament Trump is a businessman, "businessman politician", so he was smart and, on balance, he will be able to take the weight of the right, choose the lighter of two cons scales. If his lust, regardless of cost and cost to China last spring, then suffered a loss of absolutely not solely China. Now, China and the United States both sides are "prosperity and harmed" stakeholders, China is the United States's largest trading partner, United States is China's second largest trading partner, and as of 2016, China and the United States totaled 519.6 billion dollars. China and the United States services trade more than $100 billion, the United States to China to keep surplus. Meanwhile, two-way investment has racked up more than $170 billion. China and the United States trade benefits to both peoples. 2015 bilateral trade and two-way investment for the United States generated about 2.6 million jobs for American economic growth contributed US $216 billion, equivalent to 1.2% of us gross domestic product. China's merchandise exports to the United States, the United States price level reduces the 1%-1.5%. 2015 typical United States average annual household income of $56,500, China and the United States trade can do to help families save $850 a year or more. Amount of body weight to China, China, China's power, as the businessman-turned-Trump should be clear.

After such a game later, China and the United States will go into two paths, or repair, enter normal state relationship status; or continue to fall into confrontation. The latter, the people of the two countries, or even for the people of the world, will be a curse rather than a blessing.

To trump the ruling after China and the United States can be summarized in two sentences, the first sentence is, both opportunities and challenges, challenges than opportunities; the second sentence is, challenges and opportunities coexist, opportunities outweigh the challenges. Trump era, our strategic opportunity period would face a tough challenge in certain areas will be lost, we must think from the worst, be ready, adapting to changes. Opportunity cannot be eternal, "loss of opportunity" does not mean "loss of chance", Trump has no executive experience, this is the "opportunity", he is likely to give us the opportunity to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, if not kechengzhixi, we can also create opportunities. Don't expect Trump to China how good, how bad do not expect China should pay more attention to how much he can give me opportunities for development. Now, Trump business itself to "gamble", then we can keep his wits, believe that the wisdom of the Chinese people will not lose to an opponent.

All in all, in the face of changing the Trump era, we're biding our time and maintain a strategic force, just four words: self-possessed, calm response to strong bones, on the campaign. "On the campaign" and "on the go" difference is that more active and promising business people rather than business people. You make you of "unilateral doctrine", I make I of "multilateral doctrine"; you make you of "United States first", I make I of "human fate community"; you make you of "seclusion", I make I of "area way"; you make you of "beggar-thy-neighbour", I make I of "neighbourhood, and amicable, and rich o"; you make you of "United States governance", I make I of "global governance"; you make you of "not rules", I make I of "comply with and perfect world political economic new order". In comparison, conception height, width, eye distance gain size, immediately visible. As long as we maintain full strategic confidence, we can create a new strategic opportunity period in favour of me. (The author for the Military Academy of Sciences, Member of the academic Committee of the country's top think-tanks invited Luo Yuan)

> Editors: Dong Zhang

Article keywords:
Trump, China and United States

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罗援：特朗普上台给我们提供了造势而上的机会|特朗普|中国和美国_新闻资讯

　　特朗普于1月20日正式担任美国第45届总统。中国和美国之间开启了新一轮的动荡期，观察期，磨合期。

　　由于特朗普是一个与前几任美国总统性格迥异的“个性政客”，反建制，反传统，反全球化，不按常理出牌，因此，中国和美国关系将进入一个动荡期，以前达成的一些共识可能需要推倒重来。相互之间的抱怨、责难、成见、误解，甚至敌意将会增大。但是，这一阶段，双方大致还是停留在打“嘴仗”而不是打“炮仗”的阶段。

　　由于特朗普是一个毫无执政阅历的“素面政客”，因此，他和他的团队面对复杂多变的国际国内事务时要有一个不断熟悉、适应的过程，包括摔几个跟头，碰几回墙，长长见识。知道哪些是可以触动的，哪些是绝对不能触动的。中国和美国高层之间也有一个相互观察、相互了解的过程，看看双方之间有什么合作面，有什么最大公约数，有什么底牌。同时，也可以了解对方有什么长处、短处和可利用之处。在这一阶段，特朗普团队可能会做出一些实质性的挑衅行动，释放出一些气球，比如在贸易问题上，在台湾问题上，在南海问题上，在钓鱼岛问题上试探中国的底线和反应程度与力度。我们要有所准备。

　　由于特朗普又是一个商人禀性极强的“商人政客”，因此，他精于计算，在权衡利弊之后，他会两利相权取其重，两弊相衡取其轻。如果，他利令智昏，不计成本和代价一味地向中国发难，那么遭到损失的绝对不单单是中国。现在，中国和美国双方已经是“一荣俱荣，一损俱损”的利益攸关方，中国是美国第一大贸易伙伴国，美国是中国第二大贸易伙伴国，截止2016年中国和美国贸易额达到5196亿美元。中国和美国服务贸易额超过1000亿美元，美方对华保持顺差。同时，双向投资已累计超过1700亿美元。中国和美国贸易为两国人民带来福祉。2015年美中双边贸易和双向投资为美国创造了约260万个就业岗位，为美经济增长贡献了2160亿美元，相当于美国内生产总值的1.2%。中国商品出口到美国，使美国物价水平降低了1-1.5个百分点。2015年典型的美国家庭年平均收入为5.65万美元，中国和美国贸易可帮助这些家庭一年节省850美元以上。中国的分量、中国的体量、中国的力量，做为商人出身的特朗普应该清楚。

　　经过这么一番博弈之后，中国和美国关系将进入两个路径，或者修复，进入正常的国家关系状态；或者继续下滑，进入对立状态。后者，对两国人民，甚至对世界人民来说，都只能是祸而不是福。

　　对于特朗普执政后的中国和美国关系可以用两句话来概括，第一句话是，机遇与挑战并存，挑战大于机遇；第二句话是，挑战与机会并存，机会大于挑战。特朗普时代，我们的战略机遇期将面临严峻的挑战，在某些领域将会丧失，我们必须从最坏处着想，予有准备，以变应变。机遇期不可能是永恒的，丧失“机遇”并不等于丧失“机会”，特朗普没有执政经验，这就是“机会”，他很可能给我们提供趋利避害的机会，如果没有可乘之隙，我们还可以创造机会。不要指望特朗普对中国有多好，也不要指望他对中国有多坏，要关注他能给我多少发展的机会。既然，特朗普把国运当做生意来“赌”，那我们就可以跟他斗智斗勇，相信中国人的智慧不会输于对手。

　　总之，面对多变的特朗普时代，我们要以不变应万变，保持战略定力，就是四句话：冷静观察，沉着应对；强筋健骨，造势而上。“造势而上”与“顺势而上”的区别在于，前者更积极有为，制人而不制于人。你搞你的“单边主义”，我搞我的“多边主义”；你搞你的“美国第一”，我搞我的“人类命运共同体”；你搞你的“闭关锁国”，我搞我的“一带一路”；你搞你的“以邻为壑”，我搞我的“睦邻、安邻、富邻”；你搞你的“美国治理”，我搞我的“全球治理”；你搞你的“不循规蹈矩”，我搞我的“遵守并完善世界政治经济新秩序”。两者相比，立意高低，心胸宽窄，眼光远近，获利大小，立马可见。只要我们保持充分的战略自信，我们就可以营造新的有利于我的战略机遇期。（作者为军事科学院国家高端智库学术委员会特约委员 罗援）

>责任编辑：张冬

文章关键词：
特朗普 中国和美国

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