Media: predicting North Korean collapse possible premature | | Jong | crash _ North Korea news
Original title: [solved] predicted North Korea's collapse, may be premature
Kim Jong-Nam's death, North Korea once again become explosive topic.
Who killed Kim Jong Nam? Public opinion asserted. But in fact, the stranger behind the assassination and details, may be sensitive in some countries, like the MH370, sinking into the national archives, national contest between chips.
Of course, with the assassination comes, and curious onlookers in this country to the North. It's hard to imagine that remained outside the country in the world, unique because of the closed rule, insist until now.
North Korea will collapse? The problem has plagued the world for more than 20 years.
History
The 90 's of the last century, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Socialist camp, occupied the ideological competition of the species in the West.
In 1994, Kim Il-Sung's death. Without the assistance of the Soviet Union, combined with the severe impact of natural disasters, North Korea's economy is in collapse, there have been starved and transboundary phenomena of North Korean defectors. Ordinary people, the political elite is no exception. Senior North Korean officials to flee south Korea, former Korean workers ' Party Secretary Hwang Jang Yop 1997 fled South Korea the most sensation. The power gap left after the death of Kim Il-Sung, elite and the population fled, and a number of attempted coup d ' état, which have made North Korea the edge of collapse.
At that time, the most popular theory of Francis Fukuyama's the end of history. South Korea generally judged that North Korea is likely to follow in other socialist countries, or some sort of transformation, or ultimately to collapse. United States command in South Korea in 1996 the first raised the topic, followed by circles in South Korea since 1997, carried out a large number of North Korean collapse and drastic changes in Korean studies.
If this line of thinking on, beginning in 2017, North Korea's collapse can be upgraded, especially given Trump its hard-line policy toward North Korea statement after taking office. Scholars have noted with concern to predict in 2017, the Korean peninsula is likely to accomplish great things.
Script
You don't say, for a North Korean collapse, some researchers it is also designing a road map.
In 1996, when he was Foreign Affairs Chief of the USFK command luobote·kelinsi the development of a North Korean collapse seven stage plays. The first phase, North Korea into resource depletion. Second stage was unable to maintain infrastructure; the third stage, spontaneous flourishing of economic activities independently; phase IV, the Suppression of the fifth stage, resistance; the sixth stage, institutional Division; the seventh stage, regime change.
South Korean scholar Xu Zhenying that North Korea's future are mainly two choices, one is a soft landing, including maintaining the status quo and reform; the other is a hard landing, which collapsed. He said North Korea is difficult to maintain the status quo, either in a power struggle and eventually collapse under the action of a military coup, either active or passive through reform reform of reunification with South Korea.
In addition to academics, between the United States Government also enacted a "sand table". For example, was first developed in the Republic of Korea Kim Dae-Jung Government's "5029".
Initial concept plan 5029 include: coups and riots caused by the civil war, beyond the control of weapons of mass destruction regime; a large number of refugees in North; large-scale natural disasters occurred; the South Korean hostage crisis. Then the plan under the Lee Myung-bak government rise to the true meaning of the battle plan. However, relative to the large-scale war, Alliance is most concerned about at present is nuclear missiles, and North Korea may launch local provocation, they have developed "response to North Korea's provocative plan" and "5015".
However, the prophecy predicted that so far North Korea despite the crisis, but it does not necessarily mean that crashes. We analyze the next.
Intervention
If there is no external intervention, the particularity of the system makes it difficult for North Korean collapse. It comes down to the "six pillars":
First, the family of hereditary system, succession and stability;
Second, the subject thought established leader-centric power structures;
Thirdly, exclusion and rejection of any opening to the North Korean system of capitalist-style reforms;
Finally, the Korean peninsula divided and American troops based in South Korea to strengthen the legitimacy of the Korean nation;
Finally, market awareness of the North Korean people is not high, the level of social organization in a slack State;
Last, absolute control of the army leadership.
So, can shake the regime's strength comes mainly from the outside.
If North Korea really has collapsed, the Korea-us Alliance will interfere?
The United Nations Charter, no country should interfere in other countries ' internal affairs of any country by force or threat of force to solve the problem. As long as North Korea does not attack militarily, the Korea-us Alliance is the lack of intervention in internal affairs of North Korea status. However, the so-called internal affairs without interference is not absolute. If a country has a severe humanitarian disaster, especially when the massacre or the bloody crackdown, is likely to take the international community for humanitarian intervention, fulfilling the responsibility to protect. Of course, do not rule out the United Nations behind the United States, but as the war in Iraq as the price of unilateral action, the United States could not have been carefully weighed.
If North Korea implosion led to a large number of refugees crossing and neighboring countries will have the right to take measures. North Korean refugees mainly involves China, Russia and Japan and South Korea four State, where the pressure is particularly great in China. Taking into account the same nationalism on the Korean peninsula, there will be a large part of the people crossing the line 38 or by boat into South Korea, which led to the automatic insertion of the Korea-us.
When North Korea into anarchy when Korea also to eliminate the threat of weapons of mass destruction, military intervention in the name of preventing the proliferation of weapons, but this requires the prior authorization of the United Nations. Or, when the North Korean nuclear technology to break through the Korea-us bottom line, Korean American to maintain the relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council as a pre-emptive attack against local and destroy North Korean nuclear facilities or control of nuclear weapons. From North Korea's nuclear and missile tests more frequent, caused by nuclear and missile possibilities of ROK-US military involvement is growing.
Due to the constraints of international law, and only in the event of a large-scale military conflict, ROK-us may be waiting in occupation of Korea, controlling North Korea. In the past several years, between North and South Korea have numerous misfires and the incidence of armed conflict, if the United States took the opportunity to launch the exercise of defence of self-defence, the situation in North Korea is very dangerous.
Of course, Mr analysis of all in the framework of the United Nations to take military action, need a premise, that is, the consent of the Council, including China. But, Congress agreed in the United States and South Korea at the gates "ignition"?
Counter
Shortly before the articles mentioned on the island, Trump came to power shortly after North Korea fired a missile, was a very friendly "gift". For now, cool the disputes in the South China Sea, Islands, the Taiwan issue will not be much out of place, and the North Korean nuclear issue may become the biggest variable between China and the United States, is likely to become the Trump of Asia Pacific Policy Center.
The death of Kim Jong Nam, the Korea-us will rely on more hard-line. If the event is widely considered to be the North Korean Government to the ROK-US action against North Korea could be the next step to get broad support from international public opinion.
Of course, if such developments in the situation on the peninsula, and China is very negative. China, then, how can we best protect national interests?
First, China and the basic starting point should be to safeguard its core interests and support a nuclear-free, the Government of North Korea to reform and open, rather than continue to support a nuclear country. North Korea's repeated nuclear tests are close to a bottom line of tolerance by the international community, and undermine China's security interests. China's Government must wake up to North Korea, "revolution" under the guidance of the thought of it is difficult to form a symbiotic relationship of cooperation and the international community.
Second, China and the focus should be to stop the Korea-us Alliance in a blitzkrieg manner occupy and control over North Korean territory. Drastic changes in South Korea's "urgent integration" strategy, China should take into account that if appear unified Korea, relations between China and South Korea change and allowed South Korea-led reunification process of the Korean peninsula is likely to bring unpleasant results of geopolitical.
Third, China's ultimate goal is to ensure that North Korea's resolve to achieve lasting peace on the Korean peninsula. China and the United States needs to form a resolution on North Korea in the UN Security Council, establishing the United Nations body for Korean peninsula Affairs, giving guidance and assistance to urgent humanitarian challenges, promoting the normalization of North Korea's reform and opening up and foreign relations.
North Korea may not be perfect, but we do when the decision must not be concluded that the inevitable collapse of a regime of irrationality as evidence, ought to infer, based on likes and dislikes to decide policy, and that propaganda is routine, not the strategy should have attitude. North Korea has its own political logic when dealing with willfulness. Of course, we also need to warn you to concerned parties ahead, if the situation on the peninsula is really to the point of force requirements, China should not be afraid to intervene militarily in the Korean peninsula, safeguard China's core interests.
This, of course, who wants to see results.
Text/Liang Lichang
(Shandong University invited fellow at the Center on the relationship between China and South Korea, Korea University)
Source: Knight island
>: Tang Li Weishan
Article keywords:North Korea's Kim Jong Nam, crash
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媒体：预言朝鲜崩溃 可能为时尚早|朝鲜|金正男|崩溃_新闻资讯
原标题：[解局]预言朝鲜崩溃，可能为时尚早
金正男的死，让朝鲜再次成为爆款话题。
到底谁杀了金正男？舆论言之凿凿。但事实上，这出离奇刺杀案的幕后主使和细节，可能成为一些国家的高度机密，像MH370一样，沉入国家档案，成为国家间较量中的筹码。
当然，伴随刺杀事件而来的，还有对朝鲜这个国家的猎奇围观。很难想象，这个一直游离在世界之外的国家，因为封闭而独特的统治术，一直坚持到现在。
朝鲜会崩溃吗？这个问题困扰了世界二十多年。
历史
上世纪90年代，随着苏东剧变和社会主义阵营的崩溃，西方占据了意识形态竞争的上峰。
1994年，金日成去世。没有了苏联的援助，加上自然灾害的严重影响，朝鲜的国民经济处在崩溃边缘，出现了饿死人和越境逃离朝鲜的现象。普通民众如此，政治精英也概莫能外。一些朝鲜高级官员也亡命韩国，其中前朝鲜劳动党书记黄长烨1997年出逃韩国最为轰动。金日成去世后留下的权力空白，精英与民众的出逃，以及若干起未遂政变，这些都加剧了朝鲜陷入崩溃的边缘。
当时，最流行福山的《历史终结论》。韩国学界普遍判断，朝鲜很可能步其他社会主义国家的后尘，要么实现某种体制转型，要么最终走向崩溃。驻韩美军司令部1996年率先提出这一命题，随后，韩国学界从1997年开始开展了大量的朝鲜崩溃和朝鲜剧变研究。
如果按照这个思路研究下去，2017年开始，朝鲜崩溃论完全可以升级了，尤其是考虑到特朗普上台后其强硬的对朝政策发言。有学者不无忧虑地预言，2017年朝鲜半岛很可能会出大事。
剧本
你别说，对于朝鲜崩溃，有些研究者还煞有其事地设计了路线图。
1996年，时任驻韩美军司令部外交事务负责人罗伯特·柯林斯制定了朝鲜崩溃七阶段剧本。第一阶段，朝鲜陷入资源枯竭。第二阶段是无法维持基础设施；第三阶段，独立自发的经济活动勃兴；第四阶段，镇压；第五阶段，抵抗；第六阶段，体制分裂；第七阶段，政权更迭。
韩国学者徐镇英认为，朝鲜的未来出路主要有两大选择，一个是实现软着陆，包括维持现状和实施改革；另一个就是硬着陆，也就是崩溃。他说，朝鲜很难以维持现状，要么在权力斗争和军事政变的作用下最终走向崩溃，要么主动通过改革或被动改革与韩国实现统一。
除了学者，韩美之间也制定过政府间的一个“沙盘”。比如，最早制定于韩国金大中政府时期的“5029计划”。
最初的5029概念计划主要包括：政变和民众暴动引起的内战；朝鲜政权无法控制大规模杀伤性武器；大批难民脱北；发生大规模自然灾害；韩国人质危机等。后来这份计划在李明博政府时期上升为真正意义的作战计划。不过，相对于发生大规模战争，当前韩美同盟最为关注的还是朝核导弹问题，以及朝鲜可能发起的局部挑衅，他们为此制定了“应对朝鲜局地挑衅计划”和“5015计划”。
不过，预言归预言，就目前来看，朝鲜虽然存在各种危机，但不一定就等于崩溃。我们来分析下。
介入
如果没有外力介入，体制的特殊性让朝鲜很难崩溃。可以归结为“六点支柱”：
第一，家族世袭体制，代际传承稳定；
第二，主体思想确立了以领袖为中心的权力结构；
第三，朝鲜体制排斥对外开放和拒绝任何资本主义式的改革措施；
第四，朝鲜半岛的分裂和驻韩美军强化了朝鲜民族主义的正当性；
第五，朝鲜民众的市场意识不高，社会组织化程度处于涣散状态；
第六，军队领导权的绝对控制。
所以，能够撼动朝鲜政权的的力量主要来自于外部。
假如朝鲜真的出现了崩溃事态，韩美同盟将如何介入呢？
联合国宪章规定，任何国家不得干涉其他国家的内政，任何国家都不得以武力或者武力相威胁来解决问题。只要朝鲜没有在军事上进行攻击，韩美同盟就缺少干预朝鲜内政的名分。不过，所谓内政不干涉也不是绝对的。如果一个国家内部发生了严重的人道主义灾难，尤其是大屠杀或者血腥镇压的时候，国际社会很可能采取人道主义介入，履行保护的责任。当然，也不排除美国甩开联合国，但像伊拉克战争一样的单边行动所付出的代价，美国不可能不仔细掂量。
如果朝鲜内部崩溃导致大量难民越境，周边国家将有权利采取措施。朝鲜难民主要是涉及到中国和日本俄韩四国，其中，中国压力尤其大。考虑到朝鲜半岛的同一民族性，会有很大一部分民众跨越三八线或者乘船进入韩国，从而引起韩美的自动介入。
当朝鲜陷入无政府状态之时，韩美还可以以消除大规模杀伤性武器威胁，防止武器扩散为名进行军事干预，但是，这需要联合国的事先授权。或者，当朝鲜的核导技术突破韩美底线时，韩美以维护联合国安理会有关决议为名采取先发制人的局部攻击，摧毁朝鲜的核设施或者控制核武器。从目前朝鲜越发频繁的核试验和导弹试验来看，由核武器和导弹引起的韩美军事介入的可能性越来越大。
由于国际法的制约，只有在发生大规模军事冲突的情况下，韩美才可能伺机占领朝鲜，控制朝鲜。在过去的几十年里，韩朝之间发生了无数次的擦枪走火事件和武装冲突事件，如果韩美借机发难行使国防自卫权，朝鲜局势将非常危险。
当然，刚才分析的所有在联合国框架下采取的武力行动，都需要一个前提，那就是包括中国在内的安理会的同意。但，中国会同意美韩在家门口“点火”吗？
反制
前不久岛上的文章就提到过，特朗普上台不久，朝鲜就发射了个导弹，是个极不友好的“见面礼”。从目前来看，南海争端在降温，钓鱼岛、台湾问题尚不会有太大出格的地方，而朝核问题可能成为中国和美国两国间最大的变数，很有可能成为特朗普亚太政策的重心。
这次金正男之死，韩美必然借势对朝更加强硬。如果事件被广泛认定是朝鲜当局所为，韩美下一步打击朝鲜的行动可能会得到国际舆论的广泛支持。
当然，如果半岛局势如此发展下去，于中国很是不利。那么，中国如何介入才能更好地维护国家利益呢？
第一，中国介入的根本出发点应是捍卫本国核心利益，应该支持一个无核、改革和开放的朝鲜政府，而不是继续支持一个拥核国家。朝鲜一而再的核试验已经接近国际社会容忍的底线，也损害了中国的安全利益。中国政府也要清醒认识到，朝鲜在“主体革命”思想的指导下很难和国际社会形成合作共生的关系。
第二，中国介入的着力点应是遏制韩美同盟以闪击战的方式占领和控制朝鲜全部领土。对韩国利用剧变实施的“急统”战略，中国应该考虑到，如果朝鲜半岛出现统一韩国，中国和韩国关系会发生什么变化，默许韩国主导朝鲜半岛统一进程很可能带来不如意的地缘政治结果。
第三，中国介入的最终目标是确保朝鲜问题的共同解决，实现朝鲜半岛持久和平。中国和美国需要在联合国安理会形成一个朝鲜问题决议，成立联合国朝鲜半岛事务机构，对亟需解决的人道主义挑战给予指导和帮助，推动朝鲜改革开放和对外关系正常化。
朝鲜虽然不完美，但我们在做决策判断的时候，绝不能把不合理性当做断定一个政权必然崩溃的证据，用应然来推断必然，以好恶来决定政策，那是舆论宣传的套路，不是战略对策研究应有的态度。朝鲜有其独特的政治运行逻辑，打交道时不能一厢情愿。当然，我们也有必要向有关各方把丑话说在前头，如果半岛局势真的到了需武力解决的地步，中国也不应忌惮军事介入朝鲜半岛局势，维护国家核心利益。
当然，这是谁都不想见到的结果。
文/梁立昌
（山东大学中国和韩国关系研究中心特邀研究员，韩国高丽大学博士）
来源：侠客岛
>责任编辑：李伟山
文章关键词： 朝鲜 金正男 崩溃
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