Once Sade in Korea did not rule out China and Korea "disown" Lotte | | Thad | relations between China and South Korea _ news

Once Sade into Korea, China does not exclude South Korea "break"

On 27th, Lotte Group Board of Directors decided that the deployment of Thad. South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported that if the two sides formally signed, will soon begin design and construction, Sade deployment can be completed in 5-7 months.

Situation on the peninsula is stirring again.

　Site selection

Why should I have to choose the deployment of Thad?

Last July, the South Korean Defence Ministry announced that Sade will be deployed in southeastern GyeongSang-bukdo Star State. But after the selection was announced for the first time, South Korea poll, opposition to this, but not long, and farmers there have been mass protests.

, The South in late August last year, the Government announced a survey of three other places. Eventually, they selected the Star State is also located in the County, and the site only dozens of kilometers of golf for the first time, on the grounds that "higher ground".

Official said, more than 200 kilometers from Seoul, you can override the South Korean capital. But the island uncle, real consideration is: first, in the realization of what they called "try not to stimulate China's" at the same time, covered two bases in the South of the US military in South Korea; second, the area is home to conservative forces in South Korea, Park Geun-Hye's hometown is nearby, is the base of conservatives and the far right. Deployment here, not only in the far right without too much opposition against Sadr who have nothing to say.

And yet another must mention is the Lotte group itself.

　　Weight

As the world's top 500, one of South Korea's five major group, Lotte in South Korea, there is great interest in China. But they are under a number of "stress".

First of all, according to Korean media reports, while the Lotte duty-free shop is Asia's largest duty-free chain, but in order to get more privileges of duty-free shops, Lotte Cui Shunshi was involved in the case, under threat from authorities in South Korea's pressure.

May has two a news everyone are no note to: last year July, Lotte founder of female for involved "huge funds and misappropriated company money" was arrested; 2 months Hou, is in new of location determine in this a golf field zhihou soon, and has Han media message said, due to "suspected corruption heavily and violation trust responsibility", Seoul central place prosecutorial office on Lotte President, and group founder of child Xin Dongbin application arrested makes.

Secondly, although large amounts of objects, but they are not "pure" South Korean companies, but in Japan Japanese Han Qiao, returning after the development of real people in charge are mostly Japanese. Why the South Korean Government could take land deployment of Thad of Samsung, LG, Lotte pick? So, not only is military pressure, even Japan may play a significant role in this.

Similarly, in case of escalation of the situation on the peninsula, South Korean conservative forces within the country, the public also have pressure on the Lotto, it rose to "patriotic" level. A few days ago, South Korean domestic media have been discussing a question: If Lotte agreed to hand over the land, this "patriotic losses", should have some compensation?

So, in beat, under advice from countries such as China, Rakuten will still make such a decision, as they say, "is a South Korean company after all."

　Tai Chi

About Sade to Lotte's influence is significant. Not to mention the reaction of public opinion in China, on purely intuitive feeling in South Korea, where many of the Lotte duty-free shop, flow has been dramatically reduced. Previously in the duty-free shops, Chinese tourists don't see commodities, direct card payment at purchase above can get in line, but if you want it, you can feel free to visit.

Lotte's as its advertised as "innocent"?

Non-. Both South Korean authorities and the Lotto, has realized that China says what words mean to them, still holding the risk and chance, wants to play a "Tai Chi" is about.

How do they calculate it? South Korea's military said, golf is the problem of enterprise, China's anger should not be a business outlet; Lotte said, I didn't want to get involved in Foreign Affairs and politics, but as you can see under so much pressure from all sides, my decision is also compelling, do not tell me about it. If China Decides to "sanction" Lotte will open international image on your market.

But this is only in the fuzzy focus. China's concern is the fight against Sadr into South Korea, but South Korea's approach, is constantly trying to make China not found dialog object, cannot be found to combat opponents, playing a "big move".

　　Pushing hands

Sade can know the process of advancing and main driving force is in South Korea.

First of all, this decision was made by Park Geun-Hye; duties of Park Geun-Hye scandal was suspended during the period between assignments, the South Korean military, the United States is pushing. Their plan, are taking advantage of political instability when quickly decided the matter, even though new general elections in the future, and scores of votes that candidates cannot use this, "bail out" win, South Korea also sought into US-Japan missile defense network in Southeast Asia.

And continued negotiations in China, South Korea in national Governments, the United States, firms such as answered or put off, but not found in China "enemy" where China talk to who could not be found. Lotte has even selected the Japanese-backed companies can also transfer some power to Japan.

This thing is now the only leeway is for her impeachment. If the impeachment passed the March general election, can also make, after all, the entire deployment construction some time. Recently, South Korea also have a voice in the discussion, whether it was worth because Sadr raised such a big diplomatic conflicts with China? Should discuss the future relations between China and South Korea with China to live there are smarter ways? New Government may be thinking of diplomatic and political gains and losses. But for now, the unpredictability of the impeachment was greater than ever.

　　Cycle

Sade into South Korea to accelerate again, of course, is very reluctant to see the situation in China.

The North Korean nuclear issue, China and North Korea, China and South Korea, China and the United States on the peninsula ... ... It can be said that is the first time China faced North and South Korea at the same time need to be "double down" situation. If the old peninsula is "press the calabash gourd", now gourd and gourd, is even gourds. If the 2016 "Black Swan" events are frequent, the peninsula was now almost Swan Lake.

One cause of this situation is, of course, "negative cycle". North Korea believes that US-South Korean military threat is nuclear weapons cause; South Korea believes that nuclear weapons are you, is the reason why I like on the international, almost a chicken and egg problem.

Similarly, South Korea believes that relations between China and North Korea severed, is South Korea's biggest help solving the core issue of the problem is that the North Korean Government collapsed; North Korea believes that nuclear weapons are all programmes to address security, plan to resolve the relations of the United States is to solve diplomatic problems, these are all wrong. So North Korea sanctions, China State media has recently published is not called upon to swear, Korea on Thad pulled back.

Despite the differences, but both were in fact evolved into double-although the United States was the root cause of China's containment is Thad deployment, but North Korea's nuclear test, gave South Korean conservatives to expedite the deployment of the largest ammunition.

Regardless of which side must make the gesture of cutting the vicious circle. Otherwise look as if a fight it can't solve. But in fact, nobody really wants to play on both sides.

　　Dislocation

In this regard, the island Uncle has a word: North and South Korea are not clear in international politics, positioned on a peninsula where.

Like North Korea, do you think a nuclear weapon can be "nuclear power" yet? Nuclear power is to have the territory, population, international prestige and a sense of history, is called nuclear power. Not the North Korean media said, "Chinese look down on North Korea's nuclear weapons" is outside South Korea describes it as a threat, a threat no other countries in the world. To be honest, the day North Korea move nuclear weapons almost destroyed that day.

South Korea then? Without American involvement, can be unified? Feel the backing of the United States and China against it? China concern would do it, insisted on going and destined to, generally does not end so well.

On the surface, South Korea introduced Sade stung China's nerve, but the root cause, is America's containment to China. This will form a demonstration effect, like neighboring countries go along with us, is a Chinese hard points. Such as Japan, China, Taiwan, the Philippines, has been linked with news of the deployment of Thad. Therefore, China needs to let the neighbors see, where his determination.

　　Strategy

The island uncle, next to the peninsula, and China's South-North policy needs adjustment-if there is no diplomatic objective, the DPRK will use economic and cultural means to suppress; South Korea, then to put pressure on the political, military, security means. We used to be the other way around. Now that does not seem very effective, it is necessary to do before doing enough.

Don't forget Russia. Sade into South Korea, equivalent to the United States anti-missile system to form a pincer around potential, Russia's only strategy in Northeast Asia security breach was sealed.

Therefore, Sade's most Russian military. Possible options, one is the Sakhalin, and second, the four Northern Islands "militarization", as well as China and Russia border near the ocean and on land to enhance monitoring of South Korea. And Eastern Europe like: deployment of Sade-like systems of Poland and Romania, Russia they were short-range missiles. Therefore, the security issues in Northeast Asia, China could be due to linkage with Russia on military, deal with the United States, Japan and South Korea the ABM network.

Study on inter-Korean issues for so long, island Uncle would say if Sadr really deploy South Korea, relations between China and South Korea would face "disowned" the possibility. Even if the next Government wants to restore relations between China and South Korea, Sade is also around snag. In any case, South Korea wants to head a cast, this time attempting to get away, let China to swallow the bitter fruit of security, China is absolutely intolerable matter.

Oh, there's more, March US troops play, really has the potential to put Sade system flown to South Korea. As for experimental use will leave, you need to pay close attention.

Separate working alone situation to respond to changes on the Korean peninsula, China, is the country growing up alone. Only without a care, no hesitation, no tail worries, could really grow. The rise of great powers, cannot count on the cooperation of other countries, nor fantasy will cooperate with other countries, does not give you is the greatest comfort.

Shun evil potential of all the test of character, out of the fetters of shaped bepuzzlement and back is going to be easier if broken bamboo. One of China's big test will break through the Korean peninsula dilemma.

Paper/friends of Sanjiang, son of Mowgli

Source:

>: Tang Li Weishan

Article keywords:
Thad Lotte relations between China and South Korea

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一旦萨德入韩 中国不排除与韩“断绝关系”|萨德|乐天|中国和韩国关系_新闻资讯

　　一旦萨德入韩，中国不排除与韩“断绝关系”

　　27日，乐天集团董事局决定，为部署萨德供地。韩联社报道称，若双方正式签约，会很快开始设计和施工，在5-7个月内即可完成萨德部署。

　　半岛局势再次被搅动。

　　选址

　　为什么一定要选这块地部署萨德？

　　去年7月，韩国中国国防部宣布，将把萨德部署在韩国东南部的庆尚北道星州郡。但第一次选址公布之后，韩国民调显示，反对声此消彼长，就连瓜农都爆发了大规模抗议游行。

　　之后，韩国政府在去年8月底宣布对另外三个地方进行考察评估。最终，他们选中了这块同样位于星州郡、与第一次选址仅距几十公里的高尔夫球场，理由是“地势较高”。

　　官方的说法是，这里距离首尔二百多公里，可以覆盖韩国首都。但在岛叔看来，真正的考虑是：第一，在实现他们所谓“尽量不刺激中国”的同时，覆盖驻韩美军的两个在韩基地；第二，此地是韩国保守势力的大本营，朴槿惠的老家就在附近，是保守势力、极右势力的基本盘。部署在此，不仅在极右势力内部不会有太多反对声，反对萨德的人也没什么能说的。

　　还有一个原因不可不提，就是乐天集团本身。

　　重压

　　作为世界五百强、韩国五大集团之一，乐天在韩国、在中国都有巨大的利益所在。但他们最近正在承受着几方面的“压力”。

　　首先，据韩媒报道，虽然乐天免税店是亚洲最大免税店连锁，但为了拿到免税店的更多特权，乐天牵涉进了崔顺实案件，承受着来自韩国当局方面的威胁压力。

　　可能有两个新闻大家都没有注意到：去年7月，乐天创始人之女因涉“巨额资金并挪用公司钱财”被拘捕；2个月后，也就是在新的选址确定在这一高尔夫球场之后不久，又有韩媒消息称，由于“涉嫌贪污巨资和违反信托责任”，首尔中央地方检察厅对乐天会长、集团创始人之子辛东彬申请逮捕令。

　　其次，虽然乐天体量巨大，但他们并非“血统纯正”的韩国企业，而是日籍韩侨在日本创建、之后回国发展的，实际掌管人大部分都是日本籍。为什么韩国政府不去选三星、LG的土地部署萨德，偏偏选乐天的？所以，不仅是军方压力，甚至日本也可能在此中起了巨大作用。

　　同样，在半岛局势升级的情况下，韩国国内的保守势力、民意同样也对乐天产生压力，把这件事上升到了“爱国”层面。前几天，韩国国内的媒体已经在讨论一个问题：如果乐天同意交出土地，这种“爱国损失”，是不是应该有一些补偿？

　　所以，在中国等国的敲打、规劝之下，乐天才会依然做出这样的决定，如他们所言，“毕竟还是一家韩国企业”。

　　太极

　　萨德一事对乐天的影响是显著的。且不说中国民间舆论的反应，单纯从直观体感上看，在韩国的许多乐天免税店，人流已经急剧减少。以前在这些免税店，中国游客基本上看不到商品，直接拿张卡在上面选购就可以去排队缴费了，但现如果你愿意的话，可以在里面随便逛。

　　乐天真的如其标榜般“无辜”吗？

　　非也。无论是韩国当局还是乐天，都没有意识到中国对他们说的话到底是什么意思，还抱着冒险与侥幸心理，想施展一下“打太极”的本事。

　　他们是怎么盘算的呢？韩国军方说，高尔夫土地是企业的问题，中国的怒火不应对着一个企业发泄；乐天说，我本来不想卷入外交和政治漩涡，但你也看到承受着这么多各方压力，我的决定也是迫不得已，不要对我怎么样啊。如果中国决定“制裁”乐天，会对你们的市场开放等国际形象不利啊。

　　但这其实是在把焦点问题模糊化。中国的关切在于打击萨德入韩，但韩国的做法，则是不断试图让中国找不到对话对象、找不到打击的对手，玩了一手“乾坤大挪移”。

　　推手

　　看看萨德推进的进程就可以知道，主要的推手还是在韩国国内。

　　首先，这一决定是朴槿惠作出的；在朴槿惠爆出丑闻被暂停行使职责的这段空档期内，韩国军方、美国则在不断推进。他们的打算，是趁政局不稳定之时，迅速决定此事，未来即使新的大选，也使候选人无法利用此事得票得分，“以乱脱困”，乱中取胜；韩国还主动寻求编入美日在东南亚的反导网。

　　而在中国的不断交涉中，韩国无论以国内政府、美国因素、企业因素等作为回答或搪塞，都不过是让中国找不到“敌人”在哪儿，让中国找不到跟谁谈。甚至选乐天这样有日本背景的企业，也可以把力量往日本方面转移一些。

　　此事现在唯一的回旋余地，就是针对朴槿惠的弹劾案。如果弹劾顺利通过，3月份举行大选的话，还可以做做文章，毕竟整个部署施工还要一定时间。最近韩国国内也有声音在讨论，是不是值得因为萨德跟中国引发如此大的外交冲突？是不是应该跟中国商量未来中国和韩国关系走向，活着有更智慧的方法？新政府可能会思考外交和政治的得失。但目前来看，弹劾案的不可预测性也比以前大了。

　　循环

　　萨德入韩再次加速，当然是中国非常不愿意看到的局面。

　　朝核问题、中国和朝鲜、中国和韩国、半岛上的中国和美国关系……可以说，是中国第一次面临需要对朝韩同时进行“双重打压”的局面。如果以前的半岛是“按下葫芦起了瓢”，现在则是葫芦和瓢都起来了，甚至都是葫芦。如果说2016年“黑天鹅”事件频发的话，那么半岛现在几乎就是天鹅湖了。

　　这种局面的一个形成原因，当然是“负面循环”。朝鲜认为，美韩搞军事威胁，就是搞核武器的动因；韩国认为，你搞核武器，就是我在国际上围追堵截的原因，几乎成为鸡生蛋和蛋生鸡的问题。

　　同样，韩国认为，中国和朝鲜关系断掉，就是对韩国最大帮助，解决半岛问题的核心问题就是朝鲜政府垮台；朝鲜认为，核武器就是解决安全的所有方案，解决对美国关系就是解决外交问题的方案，凡阻碍这些的全是错的。所以近日朝鲜官媒就中国制裁发表不点名咒骂，韩国则在萨德上拉不回来。

　　尽管分歧如此，但两方却在事实上演成了双簧——虽然美国对中国的遏制是萨德部署的根本原因，但朝鲜的核实验，则给了韩国保守派加速部署的最大口实。

　　无论哪一方，都得做出切段恶性循环的姿态。否则看上去，好像不打一仗这事儿就没法解决似的。但其实，双方没谁真正想打。

　　错位

　　对此，岛叔有一句话概括：朝韩都不清楚自己在国际政治、在半岛上的定位在哪里。

　　比如朝鲜，你以为有了核武器就能是“核大国”了吗？核国家是要有领土、人口、国际威望、历史感，才叫核大国。不是朝鲜媒体说的那样“中国看不上朝鲜的核武器”，是除了韩国把它当威胁在描述之外，世界上没有别的国家认为有威胁。说实话，朝鲜敢动核武器的那一天，几乎就是被灭的那一天了。

　　韩国呢？没有美国介入的话，能够统一吗？觉得有美国撑腰就可以和中国对抗了么？中国担忧的事情偏要做、偏要去以卵击石的话，下场一般都不会太好。

　　表面上看，韩国引入萨德刺痛了中国的神经，但根本原因，是美国对中国的遏制策略。这会形成某种示范效应，好像周边国家地区跟着美国走，就是一个能让中国难受的点。比如日本、中国台湾、菲律宾，都曾传出要部署萨德的消息。所以，中国有必要让周边国家看到，自己的决心在哪里。

　　策略

　　在岛叔看来，接下来对半岛，中国的南北策略需要经历调整——如果没有实现外交目的的话，对朝，就要多用经济文化手段打压；对韩，则要在政治、军事安全手段上施以压力。以前我们是反过来的。现在既然看来效果不彰，就有必要做以前做得不够的。

　　别忘了俄罗斯。萨德入韩，相当于美国反导系统对其形成了夹击包围之势，俄罗斯在东北亚的唯一战略安全突破口被封死。

　　因此，俄罗斯应对萨德的方案大多也是军事的。可能的方案，一是库页岛，二是北方四岛的“军事化”，以及在中国和俄罗斯朝边境附近的海洋和陆地上加强对韩国的监测。这和东欧很像：在部署类似萨德系统的波兰和罗马尼亚，俄罗斯把短程导弹对准了他们。所以，在东北亚的安全问题上，中国可以适当地在军事上与俄罗斯联动，应对美日韩反导网。

　　研究朝韩问题这么久，岛叔想说，如果萨德真的部署韩国，中国和韩国关系将面临“断绝关系”的可能性。即使下一届政府想重拾中国和韩国关系，萨德也是绕不过的坎儿。无论如何，这次韩国再想把头一蒙、企图蒙混过关，让中国吞下安全苦果，是中国绝对不能容忍的事。

　　哦，还有，3月份的韩美军演，真的有可能把萨德系统空运至韩。至于模拟实验使用后会否留下，则需密切关注。

　　中国单独应对朝鲜半岛变局的孤军奋战局面到来，是成长大国的孤独。只有没有了牵挂，没有了犹豫，没有了头尾的担忧，才能真正地成长。大国的崛起，不能指望别国的配合，也不用幻想别国会配合，不给你添乱就是最大的安慰。

　　形恶势顺是所有考验的特征，走出的形的困惑与羁绊，后面的势将如破竹之易。中国巨大考验的这一关，将从冲破朝鲜半岛困境起。

　　文/三江汇友、公子无忌

　　来源：

>责任编辑：李伟山

文章关键词：
萨德 乐天 中国和韩国关系

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