China as Thad grips with the United States to learn from Russian experience | Thad | | us-Russian relations _ the relationship between China and the US News

In opposition, Sade system arrived in South Korea's first batch of equipment is, therefore, blocked road to Sadr deployed is becoming more difficult.

Island girl's circle of friends at once fry pan, rage against, boycott of Lotte, rejected us-South Korea Korean drama ... ... We side vented anger, while not forgetting the building to the Government to make suggestions.

Rather, we think, after Russia and the United States on the anti-missile system game, you may be able to provide China with some experience.

　　Tricks

It is well known that game between Russia and the United States on deploying the missile defense system is this--

In 2007, the Bush Administration went to Poland and the Czech Republic, saying it was to protect the United States and allies from Iran in the East and North Africa "rogue States" (Rogue State) missile threats, to build missile defense bases in the two countries. Poland and the Czech Republic is located in Central and Eastern Europe, also belong to the Soviet bloc during the cold war, today's doorway was the deployment of the US anti-missile system, Russia is naturally can't stand. How should we do?

> Four geo-as shown in the figure, apparently Poland Czech Republic closer to Russia

At that time, Putin in attending the G8 Conference interview with Western media, first accused a US threat to Russia's national security and help us to design a programme again. Putin said that Turkey is a NATO ally of the United States, Iran nearly enough, there is the Iraq near Iran's new little brother, rather than on their missile defense systems there. Radar station by the way I also help you figure it out, do not have to go to the Czech Republic, I lend you rent gaibeilai radar station in Azerbaijan Russia United States, necessary, I also can help you rise to upgrade.

　　When Putin press conference video

Look, this resort to Putin, either intentional or accidental, the United States had nothing to say, then, Bush failed to get on the floor of the missile defense system, and its successor is announced in 2009 to cancel the plan.

One comes to Europe, Asia and the United States, non-military deployment in many countries on four continents and a US-Russian conflict of interests between the two powers, has been Putin's great "laughing, a forest of Scull to ashes." Time provoked some netizens have illusions about China in China can "retreated from millions of soldiers".

However, it's not just your pencil so easy.

>

　　The truth

Read carefully combed since 2007 after foreign media reports and official information, we find that in the real world, the end is the beginning of the story, just a supporting role for a-May 2016, the Obama administration launched the European missile defense system in Romania, and announced that the second phase of the project will be completed in 2018 in Poland. Ten years later, the Russian threat, the United States was willing.

> Romanian air bases, the United States launched the missile defense system, from left to right: NATO Secretary General, Prime Minister of Romania, United States Deputy Secretary of Defense

In fact, American business for the European missile defense project more than a decade, Russia with Vladimir Putin not only "talk" a means of countering that.

Back in 2002, the United States has already begun with Poland and other European countries to discuss the deployment of a missile defense system, and in 2007, was selected by Poland and the Czech Republic for formal consultations with the United States. At that time, in addition to Russia, Poland, the Czech people in the two countries are also strongly opposed. Poll of the year, Poland 57% of the national opposition to the project, only 21% support; Czech is 67% of a negative vote, and supported by the 15%.

Faced with such a dilemma, the United States and Poland, the Czech Government has decided to split up to do mass work with Russia. Sent by the then US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the Chinese delegation led by Defense Secretary Robert Gates mission to Russia, Poland and the Czech Republic in their respective countries against the influence of the opposition, to appease people. Predictable results, both sides are lost.

Poland and the Czech Republic domestic opposition groups such as the rock, even the phenomenon of hunger strikes, Governments face increasing pressure. With regard to negotiations with Russia's mission, feeling more uncomfortable. Vladimir Putin at his residence outside Moscow to meet with them, and keep us all waiting for a full 40 minutes to appear. Not only that, Putin rejected Condoleezza Rice, among others all alternatives, including even the United States invited Russia to participate in the design and deployment of the missile defense system proposed.

In Putin's view, unless the Exchange deployment, can not help but talk about. Putin's comments infuriated rice on the spot, the two sides broke up. Russian officials immediately following it, to quit the US-Russian arms control agreement to coerce the United States on the one hand, on the one hand to missiles to threaten other countries in Europe.

> 2007 New York Times coverage of Condoleezza Rice, who visited Russia

Around the Bush administration hit a nail, happens to be when the values change in Government, so the matter was temporarily put on hold. Then Obama took power, certainly not for the former sort out this mess, start is the better choice for him. This lies the United States in 2009 announced the cancellation of the project, which is said to be mistaken for the ending of the story earlier.

Things become even more complicated in the future. By 2013, the US Government repeatedly on deploying missile defense systems in Europe. Cause this happens, is the changeable international situation turbulent relations with Russia.

In 2011, the United States and Russia have clashed in the civil war in Syria and Libya, each side, from the United Nations Security Council has been to the Middle East. But it is always within the controllable range, in March 2013, Obama also stopped by once again promoting the deployment of a missile defense system.

> 2013 New York Times article

2013 New York Times article

However, the sudden deterioration of the thing at the end of 2013.

Civil unrest broke out in Ukraine, that the territory of Crimea in 2014, in the form of a referendum to join the Russian Federation. The opposite of Russia's total came to the United States and the European Union, G8 deletion. In Europe and America, is equivalent to Crimea was taken by Russia, this blow to their considerable.

For Europe, a deep sense of insecurity has been rooted in the heart. Eyeing next to a military power of Russia, who didn't know whether he would be the next Ukraine. More serious is that as their umbrella, the United States, has failed to deter Russia away from Crimea, if one day it's your turn, the United States also has the ability to save them from Russian hands?

For the United States, the sense of rushing. In addition to the shocked outrage from Russia's tough yet, also concerns the matter to their own NATO leader and the impact of global hegemony. They know that Europe's "little brother" has its distrust, the Asia-Pacific allies are also eyeing the development, if they do not quickly make up their lost credibility (credit) from the NATO system to San Francisco (San Francisco System), painstaking efforts for many years after World War II the United States system of global alliances will all one day collapse. Meanwhile, the United States has been established to maintain "international police" image would be damaged, the last difficult to retain its dominance in the world.

So, Poland's opposition also small, America's determination to counter Russia more determined. Even though Russia has strongly opposed, even saying they will neutralize (neutralize) power of the missile defense system, a bomb aimed at European countries, the United States began the deployment of the system in Romania and Poland.

> Research Institute said the missile defense system could not intercept Russian intercontinental ballistic missile

In fact, regardless of Russian opposition, no matter how many years, the United States would eventually promote the deployment of the European missile defense system, considered nothing more than timing. Because this is the United States national missile defence project (National Missile Defense, NMD for short) is an integral part of the.

As early as the 50 's of the last century, the United States began deploying anti-missile systems to defend against conventional and nuclear deterrence of the Soviet Union. Decades, in addition to missile defense in their native California and Alaska were placed, anti-missile system already in the United States around the world--such as Japanese and Australian warships equipped with the aegis ballistic missile defense system, such as Turkey and the Netherlands United States radar, of course, there is the arrival of South Korea's air defence systems Thad.

Obviously, to advance to the national security strategy of the United States has a very clear demand and schedule, they can be dormant, you can detour, can temporarily retreat, but will use every opportunity to hold the global layout. In Romania and Poland, they have chosen the Ukrainian crisis this time node; in South Korea, and opted for instability on the peninsula, South Korea's domestic political instability of the time. So, it's determination to safeguard its strategic interests in the world won't change, timing is also steady.

In a sense, Putin's "going back to either intentional or accidental," no problem, hit back at the power of words is limited, ultimately make it such a deployment delays, is Russia's own military strength is enough to make us hesitate to weigh. Even if the United States truly landed after the Eastern European anti-missile system, Russia's retaliatory measures also explicitly determined, signaling a clear unambiguous, avoiding the "test-response-continue to trial-expand" overflow and erode. Including the most recent, post of Vice Chairman of the Committee of the Russian Federation said that in order to deal with Sadr, Russia will consider deploying missiles and ground units.

Therefore, the strength is the hard truth.

Wen/Li Ming yi

Source: overseas network

> Editor: Ni Zi Jiang

Article keywords:
Thad relations between China and the United States US-Russia relations

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中国因为萨德与美国过招 可汲取俄罗斯的经验|萨德|中国和美国关系|美俄关系_新闻资讯

　　在一片反对声中，萨德系统的第一批装备还是运抵了韩国，由此，阻击萨德部署之路可谓是变得更为艰难。

　　岛妹的朋友圈也一下子炸了锅，怒斥美韩的、抵制乐天的、拒绝韩剧的……大家一边宣泄着心中的愤懑，一边不忘给政府建言献策。

　　我们倒是觉得，此前俄美在反导系统博弈，或许可以为中国提供一些借鉴的经验。

　　招数

　　众所周知，俄美关于导弹防御系统部署的博弈是这样的——

　　2007年，小布什政府跑到波兰和捷克，说是为了保护美国和盟友不受伊朗等中东北非“流氓国家”（Rogue State）的导弹威胁，要在这两个国家建设导弹防御基地。波兰和捷克两国位于中东欧，在冷战时期也都同属苏联阵营，现如今自家门口被部署了美国的反导系统，俄罗斯自然是不能忍的。怎么办呢？

>　　四国地缘如图所示，明显波兰捷克离俄罗斯更近

　　当年，普京在参加G8会议接受西方媒体采访时，首先指责了美国此举威胁到俄罗斯的国家安全，继而帮美国重新设计了一套方案。普京表示，土耳其既是美国的北约盟友，又离伊朗近得很，还有伊拉克这个毗邻伊朗的美国新晋小弟，不如把导弹防御系统放在他们那里。顺便雷达站我也帮你搞定，不必去找捷克，我直接把俄罗斯在阿塞拜疆租的盖贝莱雷达站借给你美国，需要的话我还可以帮你们升升级。

　　普京当年的记者会视频

　　看上去，普京的这一招，怼得美国无话可说，于是，小布什任上就没能让这个导弹防御系统落地，而其继任者奥巴马更是在2009年宣布取消了这一计划。

　　一个涉及到欧、亚、美、非四大洲诸多国家的军事部署，一场美俄两个大国之间的利益冲突，就这样被普京大帝“谈笑间，樯橹灰飞烟灭”。一时间惹得国内一些网民也不禁幻想起中国也能“一言退百万兵”。

　　不过，事情也不只是动动嘴那么简单。

>

　　真相

　　仔细翻阅梳理2007年至今的外媒报道和官方资料之后，我们发现，现实世界里，故事的终点就是起点，只不过配角换了一个而已——2016年5月，奥巴马政府在罗马尼亚启动了欧洲导弹防御系统，并且宣布，该项目的二期将于2018年在波兰落成。十年之后，任俄罗斯怎么威胁，美国还是达成所愿。

>　　罗马尼亚空军基地，美国导弹防御系统启动仪式，从左至右：北约秘书长、罗马尼亚总理、美国中国国防部副部长

　　其实，美国经营了这个欧洲导弹防御项目不只十年，俄罗斯也不只用了普京“嘴皮子”那一种反制手段。

　　早在2002年，美国就已经开始同包括波兰在内的欧洲国家们商量部署导弹防御系统一事，而后在2007年，被选中的波兰和捷克与美国进行了正式的协商。当时，除了俄罗斯，波兰、捷克两国民众也强烈反对过。当年的民调显示，波兰57%的国民反对该项目，只有21%的人支持；捷克更是有67%的反对票，支持的人不过15%。

　　面对如此窘境，美国和波兰、捷克两国政府决定分头去做群众和俄罗斯的工作。美国派出由时任国务卿赖斯和中国国防部长盖茨率领的代表团出使俄罗斯，波兰和捷克在各自国内对抗反对派影响力，安抚民众。结果可想而知，两边皆落空。

　　波兰和捷克国内的反对人群心如磐石，甚至出现了绝食抗议的现象，两国政府面对的压力越来越大。至于跟俄罗斯谈判的美国使团，滋味就更加难受了。普京在自己莫斯科郊外的寓所会见他们，足足让美国众人等了40分钟才出现。不仅如此，普京否定了赖斯等人提出的全部替代方案，甚至包括美国邀请俄罗斯参与设计和部署该导弹防御系统的提议。

　　在普京看来，除非换地部署，要不免谈。普京的表态当场激怒了赖斯，双方不欢而散。俄罗斯的官员们紧跟其上，一方面以退出美俄军控协议来要挟美国，一方面以将导弹瞄准欧洲来威胁其他参与国家。

>　　2007年纽约时报对赖斯等人访俄的报道

　　小布什政府在各地都碰了钉子，恰巧又值政府换届之时，于是此事就被暂且搁置了。而后上台的奥巴马，自然不会替前任收拾这烂摊子，另起炉灶对他来说才是更好的选择。这就出现了2009年美国宣布取消该项目的举动，也就是前文所说被误以为的故事结尾。

　　往后的事情就变得更加复杂。截止到2013年，美国政府在部署欧洲导弹防御系统上多次反复。导致这种情况出现的，正是风云变幻的国际局势下动荡的美俄关系。

　　2011年，美国与俄罗斯先后在叙利亚和利比亚内战上起了冲突，双方各挺一边，从联合国安理会一直斗到中东战场。但总归是尚在可控范围之内，2013年3月，奥巴马还喊停了被再次推动的导弹防御系统部署。

>　　2013年纽约时报的文章

　　2013年纽约时报的文章

　　不过，事情在2013年底突然恶化。

　　乌克兰内乱爆发，以至于其领土克里米亚在2014年以公投的形式加入了俄罗斯联邦。俄罗斯彻底走到了美国和欧盟的对立面，被G8集团除名。在欧美看来，克里米亚相当于是被俄罗斯夺走的，这对他们的打击相当大。

　　对于欧洲各国来说，深深的不安全感已经被根植在心。一个军事强大的俄罗斯在旁虎视眈眈，谁都不知道自己会否成为下一个乌克兰。更严重的是，作为他们保护伞的美国，竟然没能阻止俄罗斯抢走克里米亚，若是有一天轮到自己，美国还有能力从俄罗斯手上救下他们吗？

　　对于美国来说，危机感扑面而来。除了震惊愤怒于俄罗斯的强硬决绝，更是担忧此事对自己北约盟主和全球霸主的影响。美国知道，欧洲的“小弟”们已经对其产生了不信任感，那些亚太盟友们也都在紧盯事态的发展，倘若不赶紧补上自己丢失的信誉度（credit），从北约到旧金山体系（San Francisco System），美国二战后苦心经营多年的全球结盟体系终有一天会全线垮掉。同时，美国一直建立维持的“国际警察”形象也会受到损害，最后难以保有其世界霸主地位。

　　于是，波兰国内反对的声音也小了，美国反制俄罗斯的决心也更坚定了。这次纵使俄罗斯一再强烈反对，甚至说他们会中和（neutralize）该导弹防御系统的力量，将核弹对准欧洲国家们，美国依然在罗马尼亚和波兰展开了该系统的部署。

>研究机构称此前导弹防御系统无法拦截俄罗斯洲际导弹

　　其实，无论俄罗斯如何反对，无论花上多少年时间，美国最终一定会推动欧洲导弹防御系统的部署，考虑的无非是时机问题。因为，这是美国国家导弹防御项目（National Missile Defense，简称NMD）的一个组成部分。

　　早在上个世纪50年代，美国就开始部署反导系统以抵御苏联的常规武器和核武器威慑。几十年来，除了在自己本土的加利福尼亚和阿拉斯加进行了导弹防御安置，美国的反导系统早已遍布全球——比如日本和澳大利亚战舰装备的宙斯盾弹道导弹防御系统，再比如土耳其和荷兰的美国雷达；当然，还有这次到货韩国的高空防御系统萨德。

　　可见，美国对推进自己的国家安全战略部署有非常明确的诉求和时间表的，他们可以蛰伏，可以迂回，可以暂时退避，但终究会利用一切可能的时机来抓紧全球布局。在罗马尼亚和波兰部署，他们选择了乌克兰危机这一时间节点；在韩国推进，则选择了半岛局势动荡、韩国国内政局不稳的时机。所以，其在全球维护自身战略利益的决心是不会变的，时机把握上也是稳准狠的。

　　某种意义上讲，普京的“回怼”没有问题，但言语回击的力量毕竟有限，归根结底使之这种部署延宕的，是俄罗斯自身的军事实力足以让美国踌躇掂量。即使美国真正把反导系统落地东欧之后，俄罗斯的反制措施亦明确果决，信号明确不模糊，避免了“试探-反应-继续试探-扩大”的外溢和蚕食。包括最近，俄罗斯联邦委员会国防委员会副主席就表示，为了应对萨德，俄罗斯将考虑部署导弹和地面分队。

　　所以，实力才是硬道理。

　　文/百里明颐

　　来源：海外网

>责任编辑：倪子牮

文章关键词：
萨德 中国和美国关系 美俄关系

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