Media: it is recommended that the United States is considering joining of advocating "along the way" | | | trade _ the relationship between China and the US News

XI Jinping itinerary of the upcoming visit to the United States. To tell the truth, heads of both China and the United States achieved so quickly access speed is beyond many people's expectations.

A lot of people expected, through this dialogue, China and the United States to get rid of "self competition" held optimism for achieving healthy competition and cooperation. After all, since Trump came to power, on potential trade friction, trade protection all over the world have concerns.

　Concept

How to evaluate the protectionist rhetoric of Trump and his team members?

In fact, as long as the system has read Trump's experiences, writings, lectures, and so on, rather than just staring at the words, you can understand, as a business businessmen from several countries around the world, Trump felt about the benefits of globalization far deeper than professional politicians; he is not sustainable in the current globalization model, rather than globalization per se.

After all, America's fiscal and trade "twin deficits" is so great, and continued rapid expansion, the economic model, this model of globalization cannot be perpetuated by any means; overhaul reform is imperative.

Chairman Mao said, relations between big powers, to look good, but also delicious. Trade relations between China and the United States "tasty" part.

Hundreds of millions of dollars a year in trade, increase two-way investment, trade leads directly to China's millions of jobs, "made in China" to restrain inflation the irreplaceable role of the United States ... ... Businesses all over the world, in China several Trump registered trademarks applied for more than 50 once, how could see them?

What's more, Trump hope to rebuild the economy, especially in rebuilding the American economy, but he faces the external economic environment, the world economy has entered a stage of depression for a long period, and will continue for quite some time if China "confrontation", will only make his goals overall in vain.

Meanwhile, this year's series against China trade dispute, so it can't be counted on to trump the Government--although there is no doubt that China is the biggest victim of trade protectionism.

According to statistics from China's Ministry of Commerce, in 2016, America launched anti-dumping investigations against China 11, anti-subsidy investigation of 9, trade remedy investigations launched total 20, initiating an investigation caseload jumped 81.1% over the previous year; involving 3.7 billion dollars, an increase of 131%. A few days ago, US Department of Commerce to China stainless steel plate anti-dumping and countervailing duty "double reverse" investigation and make a final cut, final rates high, called "Metamorphosis".

But what is clear is, these disputes were initiated by the Obama administration, each trade disputes from the sponsor to award usually for one or two years, so can count on to trump the Government's trade dispute with China, also needs some time to appear.

In addition, although since the election about the China trade, Trump made a series of pungent remarks, but these remarks are in fact no more than was the Clinton stimulus, while Clinton also greatly promote the economic and trade relations with China after he took office. Don't forget many years ago, Trump had a book called the art of trading (The Art of the Deal), which advertises an "art" is in the negotiations "head start", or even "the more sensational the better", in order to seize the initiative in the negotiations. To him such "language arts", it doesn't have to be a surprise at first glance, can calm observation and analysis.

　　Potential

March 31, us time, Trump signed two presidential decrees, and asked departments to identify the roots of America's huge trade deficit and plans to target State "unfair trade" to impose punitive tariffs. The same day, the US trade representative's Office issued annual report on trade barriers, criticizing China's excess capacity and export "distort the global market". These messages, caused uproar in the press.

But the fact that China stole American jobs and work, large deficits in the United States suffer is itself untenable.

Stephen Roach, a senior researcher at Yale University study shows that there is the trade deficit between the United States and 101 countries. Studies have found that China's trade surplus with the United States, about 40% was created by American companies operating in China, while 20% was created by other foreign companies operating in China. Even export trade industry, the profits of Chinese enterprises, there are also quite a few American companies took. United States-China Business Council business climate survey released October 2016, US-funded enterprises in China made a profit of 90%.

Also cannot ignore is that when you publish the news, Navarro, Director of the White House National Trade Committee, China's Commerce Minister, rose insisted, the new Executive order would address the American trade deficit with China, but "is not aimed at China."

This suggests that, the United States on the eve of Mr XI's visit had a bad shout, but also its relations with China "but not broken".

In fact, Trump claims, essentially an empire in the aftermath of over-expansion, voluntarily contracting to anchoring our fundamentals and solid foundation. He was in an aggressive offensive tactics, strategic back precisely because of his basic goal was to revive the American economy, solid economic fundamentals of the United States, so he brings not only to China's economic and trade disputes increased uncertainty, there is vast potential commercial space.

　　Share

Take a step back and say, even large-scale economic disputes between China and the United States, uncle is not very worried about its destruction of the island. This is because, to China's economy and influential economic target, China has developed from simple "catch up" into both "prevention is catching up."

In other words, if occurred no can save of international of, and worldwide of economic trade fell, we without futile to pursuit national growth and himself of history records longitudinal compared, as long as can guarantee himself of growth performance, and other, and especially main competition opponents horizontal compared relative better, we in international economic system in the of status on will rose, and by accounted for share on will expanded, on still conducive to we "prevention was overtaking".

This means, we don't have to pursue their own absolute growth of the economy, as long as the pursuit of economic growth from victory in the competition.

The subprime crisis is a clear example. Last time subprime mortgage crisis significantly boosted China's share of trade in the world economy: in 2007, China's real GDP accounted for 10.8% of the world by 2015, China's real GDP accounted for 17.3% of the world. Although the decline in global trade in recent years, China's economic slowdown, but China trade global shares remain in the promotion.

　　Win-win

Is that China and the United States to get rid of "self competition", achieve positive competition and cooperation, because it is to avoid internecine, the best choice of a third country and a third, also in Trump's idea.

"Self competition" of the concept. "Self competition" refers to is that the competing country leadership, knowing that certain policy measures will fundamentally damage its own interests, but to something in the international political struggle "moral high ground", and racing to take policy measures of this kind, eventually leading to all the major powers are riding a tiger.

From months in which China and the United States and developments in the international environment, China and the United States get rid of "self competition" hopes are rising of the predicament.

From the United States, Trump, in his first speech to Congress after his inauguration, suggested that infrastructure investment in the next ten years to reach 1 trillion dollars. This $1 trillion out of thin air into the Government's accounts? Obviously not. According to the United States Department of transportation data, surface transport infrastructure investment shortfall amounted to only US $900 billion, and that not all Trump projects.

In front of the huge funding gap, Trump's construction plan is likely to fail. They fall through, this will be the major setback of Trump personal, will also become the Trump opening promises to voters. Make voters happy what are the consequences? Self-evidently.

So, $1 trillion come from? In fact, in the period of the Obama administration, the Government has made efforts to attract foreign investment in the United States, China's infrastructure construction. In terms of infrastructure, compared to the United States and China in terms of capital, technology and experience is superior. According to Bureau of statistics data, in 2016, China in the first ten months, investment in infrastructure has reached $1.4 trillion. What concept? 10 months, China completed the construction of Trump 10 goals.

In addition, in 2015, China and the United States bilateral trade and investment, or about 2.6 million jobs were created for the United States to help every American family an average of 850 trillion in spending. It is obvious that Chinese investment and infrastructure experience is vital to us.

In view of this, uncle suggested that the United States consider the island joined China's "along the way". Reason one, adding "along the way", the United States can attract investment from China and, secondly, "along the way" along with resources of many countries, the United States can take, "along the way" into national investment, opening up new markets.

Pacific wide enough powers hold China and the United States. In the internal "identity politics", foreign policy values underscore the Obama era, learned that good intentions raised during the President's visit to the United States will remain at the paper. Today, faced with the reality, Trump also should keep their eyes open, will select their benefits from it.

After all, as the two largest economies in the world, the total population of the two countries nearly 1/4 per cent of the world population, economic output around the world 1/3 the two countries, bilateral trade volume in the world 1/5; cooperation relations between China and the United States if health is for global well-being. Seems to trump the Government, in the face of "no conflict, not confrontation" in China, win-win cooperation is the best policy.

Text/Mei Xinyu, researcher at the Chinese Academy of international trade and economic cooperation

Partial data from the China and globalization think tank (CCG) report

China and the United States broad prospects for cooperation in the field of infrastructure, providing new opportunities for relations between China and the United States

>: Tang Li Weishan

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Trade relations between China and the United States

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媒体:建议美国考虑加入中国倡导的“一带一路”|一带一路|中国和美国关系|贸易_新闻资讯

　　习近平主席即将开启访问美国的行程。说实话，中国和美国双方这么快就实现元首访问，速度应该是超出了很多人的预期。

　　很多人期望，通过这次对话，可以对中国和美国两国摆脱“自伤性竞争”，实现良性竞争与合作抱着乐观态度。毕竟，自特朗普上台以来，全世界都对潜在的贸易摩擦、贸易保护等抱有担忧。

　　理念

　　如何评价特朗普及其团队成员的贸易保护主义言论？

　　其实，只要认真系统阅读了特朗普的经历、著作、演讲等等，而不是只盯着片言只语，就能够明白，作为一个生意遍布全球多个国家的商人，特朗普对全球化利益的感受远比专业政客深刻；他反的是不可持续的现行全球化模式，而不是全球化本身。

　　毕竟，美国财政和贸易的“孪生赤字”如此巨大，而且还在继续快速膨胀，这种经济模式、这种全球化模式无论如何是不可能永久延续下去的；动大手术改革调整，势在必行。

　　毛主席说过，大国关系，要好看，更要好吃。经贸，正是让中国和美国关系分外“好吃”的那一部分。

　　一年数千亿美元的贸易，与日俱增的双向投资，对华经贸直接带来的数以百万计就业， “中国制造”对抑制美国通货膨胀的不可替代的作用……生意遍布全球多国、在中国一次性申请了50多个商标注册的特朗普，怎么可能看不到这些？

　　更何况，特朗普希望重建美国经济，特别是重建美国实体经济，但他面临的外部经济环境，则是世界经济已步入长周期萧条阶段，而且还会延续相当一段时期；如果与中国全面“对抗”，只会使他的目标全盘落空。

　　同时，今年以来的一系列对华不利贸易争端裁决，目前看，还不能算到特朗普政府头上——虽然毫无疑问，中国是贸易保护主义的最大受害国。

　　据中国商务部统计，2016年全年，美国对华发起反倾销调查11起，反补贴调查9起，合计发起贸易救济调查20起，发起调查案件数量比上年猛增81.1%；涉案金额37亿美元，同比增长131%。前些日子，美国商务部还对中国不锈钢板材反倾销和反补贴“双反”调查作出终裁，最终裁定的税率之高，堪称“变态”。

　　但需要明确的是，这些争端都是奥巴马政府执政时期发起的，每项贸易争端从发起到裁决通常要一两年，所以，能够算到特朗普政府头上的对华贸易争端，还需要过一段时间才能出现。

　　此外，尽管从竞选以来，围绕对华经贸，特朗普发表了一系列刺激性言论，但这些言论其实并不比当年的克林顿刺激多少，而克林顿也在就任总统后极大推进了对华经贸关系。不要忘了，多年前特朗普就出过一本书，名曰《交易的艺术》（The Art of the Deal），其中宣扬的一项“艺术”，就是在谈判中“先声夺人”，甚至“越耸人听闻越好”，以求抢占谈判主动权。对他这类“语言艺术”，其实不必一惊一乍，可以冷静观察分析。

　　潜力

　　美国时间3月31日，特朗普签署两份总统令，要求有关部门查明美国巨额贸易逆差根源，并计划向对象国的“不公平贸易”征收惩罚性关税。同日，美国贸易代表办公室发表年度贸易壁垒报告，批评中国的产能过剩、大量出口“扭曲全球市场”。这几条消息，在舆论界引发一阵骚动。

　　但事实上，中国抢了美国的饭碗和工作、大量逆差让美国吃亏等说法，本身就站不住脚。

　　耶鲁大学高级研究员史蒂芬·罗奇研究显示，美国与101个国家之间都存在贸易逆差。更有研究发现，中国对美贸易顺差中，大约40%是由在华经营的美国公司创造的，另有20%是其他在华经营的外资公司创造的。即便是出口创汇的外贸行业，中国企业的产品利润中，也有相当一部分被美国企业拿走了。美中贸易中国委员会2016年10月发布的中国商业环境调查报告显示，90%的美资企业在中国实现了盈利。

　　同样不能忽视的是，发布上述消息时，白宫国家贸易委员会主任纳瓦罗、中国商务部长罗斯都坚称，新行政命令将解决美国对华贸易赤字问题，但“不是针对中国”。

　　这表明，美方虽然在习主席到访前夕咋呼得厉害，其实也希望对华关系“斗而不破”。

　　其实，特朗普的主张，本质上是一个帝国在过度扩张之后，主动收缩以求固本培元、夯实基础。他是在以咄咄逼人的进攻性战术，开展战略性退缩；也正因为他的根本目标是重振美国实体经济，夯实美国经济基础，所以，他上台给中国经贸带来的不仅仅是争端风险上升的不确定性，更有广大的潜在商业空间。

　　份额

　　退一步说，即使中国和美国发生大规模经济争端，岛叔也并不十分担心其杀伤力。这是因为，以中国经济当前的体量和江湖地位，中国经济的目标，已经从此前单纯的“赶超”转向兼顾“防范被赶超”。

　　换句话说，如果发生无可挽回的国际性的、世界性的经济贸易下滑，我们不必徒劳地追求本国增长率与自己的历史纪录纵向比较，只要能够保证自己的增长实绩，与别国、特别是主要竞争对手横向比较相对较好，我们在国际经济体系中的地位就会上升、所占份额就会扩大，就仍然有利于我们“防范被赶超”。

　　这就意味着，我们不用追求自身经济的绝对增长，只要追求经济的相对增长便可从竞争中获胜。

　　次贷危机就是一个明显的例子。上次次贷危机，显著提升了中国经济贸易在全世界的份额：2007年，中国实际GDP占全世界10.8%；到2015年，中国实际GDP已占全世界17.3%。虽然近两年全球贸易下滑、中国经济减速，但中国贸易占全球份额依然在提升。

　　共赢

　　之所以主张中国和美国两国摆脱“自伤性竞争”、实现良性竞争与合作，是因为这是两国避免两败俱伤、第三国渔翁得利的最优选择，也符合特朗普的理念。

　　先来说一下“自伤性竞争”这个概念。“自伤性竞争”指的是，相互竞争的大国领导层，虽然明知某些政策措施会从根本上损害本国利益，但为了在国际政治斗争中占据某种“道义制高点”，而竞相采取这类政策措施，最终导致所有大国都骑虎难下。

　　从这几个月中国和美国两国和国际环境发展变化来看，中国和美国共同摆脱“自伤性竞争”困局的希望正在上升。

　　从美国国内看，特朗普在就职后的首次国会演讲中就提出，未来十年内基础设施投资规模达到一万亿美元。这一万亿美元会凭空掉进政府的账户吗？显然不能。根据美国交通部数据，仅地表交通基建投资缺口就达9000亿美元，而这还不是特朗普基建计划的全部。

　　在庞大的资金缺口面前，特朗普的基建计划很可能落空。一旦落空，这将是特朗普个人的重大挫败，也会变成特朗普开给选民的空头支票。让选民空欢喜的后果是什么？不言而喻。

　　那么，一万亿美元从哪来？其实，在奥巴马执政时期，政府就已努力吸引中国在内的外国投资参与美国的基础设施建设。而在基础设施建设上，相比于美国，中国在资本、技术和经验上都更胜一筹。根据中国统计局数据，中国在2016年的前十个月，基础设施投资就已达1.4万亿美元。什么概念？中国10个月就完成了特朗普10年的基建目标。

　　另外，2015年中国和美国双边贸易投资，也为美国创造了约260万个就业岗位，帮助每个美国家庭平均减少850美元开支。显而易见，中国投资和基建经验对美国来说至关重要。

　　鉴于此，岛叔倒是建议美国考虑加入中国倡导的“一带一路”。理由其一，加入“一带一路”，美国可吸引来自中国的投资；二来，“一带一路”沿线有众多国家资源，美国完全可以借“一带一路”引入沿线国家投资、开拓新市场。

　　太平洋足够宽广，容得下中国和美国两个大国。在对内大搞“身份政治”、对外战略以价值观划线的奥巴马时代，习主席访美时提出的这一良好意愿只能停留在纸上。如今，面对现实，特朗普也该擦亮眼睛，择其益者而从之。

　　毕竟，作为世界上两个最大的经济体，两国人口总和占世界人口近1/4，两国经济总量约占世界1/3，双边贸易额占世界1/5；中国和美国的合作关系如果稳定健康，对全球都是福祉。对特朗普政府来说，面对“不冲突，不对抗”的中国，合作共赢才是上策。

　　文/梅新育，中国商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院研究员

　　部分数据资料来自中国与全球化智库（CCG）报告

　　《中国和美国基础设施领域合作前景广阔，为中国和美国关系提供新机遇》

>责任编辑：李伟山

文章关键词：
一带一路 中国和美国关系 贸易

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