Future of mankind depends on China instead of the United States

China has a population of human one-fifth, which guarantees the country not mediocrity, should not be overlooked. XI Jinping pointed out in his speech at the opening ceremony of the Forum in Davos, 2017, emerging market countries and developing countries on the global economic growth rate has reached 80%. Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis, China's economic growth to average annual growth rate of the world economy in more than 30%. This shows that the Chinese dream--the common aspirations of the Chinese people, will have an extraordinary impact on a global scale. British Economist Luo Siyi said: "human benefit of others depends on according to the economic vitality of the peaceful rise of China, rather than pre-emptive war causes global risks in the United States. This is the interests of humanity and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation linked to the deeper causes. "At the same time, he also said:" the achievements of China's economic reform is an extraordinary wisdom of ".

One

With the development of China, today's world is undergoing one of the greatest turning points in human history. The rise of China is not only a fact, but also a test of theories of economic development. In the period of Chinese economic reforms, Western institutions to provide the vast majority of opinion, should Western policy in China, including full privatisation-the policy is Russia and Eastern European countries included in the 1989 economic strategy, and led to the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.

China's economic reforms began in 1978, the Chinese learned from his deep political experience "governing a great country is like cooking a small fish," the truth, emphasizing the progressive and the two-track system, rejected the theory of shock therapy, in the criticism of the international academic community to break out even miracles, to rise in the. And the use of shock therapy in Russia has suffered since the industrial revolution of the world countries experiencing the worst economic collapse in times of peace. China's success, could serve as a litmus test of economic theory. China's great economic practice reflects the brilliance of the economic theory. China considered the practical application of economic policy issues, foreign theory of selectively applied, because the premise is different, its certainly different.

2008 international financial crisis that swept the world, Western countries do not have a country as well as China to ride out the storm, but still adamant, arguing that China's priority is to take the cause of Soviet disaster theory! A result, China has insisted on going its own way, strutting across the crisis, achieved rapid economic development: 7 years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, China's economy grew by 79.9%, while the economic growth in the United States only in 8.2%, Germany, Japan, 0.7%. During this period, an average annual growth rate of China's economy was 11.4%, compared with an average annual growth rate of the US economy is 1.1%, German 0.7%, Japan, 0.1%. China's economic growth rate was almost 10 times of the United States, Germany 16 times, Japan 114 times. It can be said that China's economic performance during this period was overwhelming. While the G7 economies to the United States Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said, "a long period of stagnation". The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Executive Ms Christine Lagarde called it "the new mediocrity."

The historical truth is that advocated by Western countries to tackle the financial crisis, domestic policies are not accepted by China, no harm to China. While Western countries have implemented their own belief that they can rescue the wonderful, but swallowed the bitter fruit of hindering their economic development significantly accelerated the pace of China's economy catch up with the United States.

China's success and the failure of the West, resulting in 2008 year peacetime history occurred shortly after changes in the balance of economic power in the world's greatest! China and American phase more, economic structure Zhijian of differences obviously: China economic in international trade open aspects far WINS American; China of investment level, that accounted for its economic of share, far above American; except financial and currency policy, China also can using national directly investment of way change its investment level, and American refused to national investment, only rely on Yu macroeconomic management--almost completely is financial and currency policy. In order to monitor their level of investment, in addition to the private sector, also has a large State-owned enterprises in China, and the United States at the conscious level, refusing to set up a State-owned enterprise. To sum up, China's economic structure has no problem, problem is the West's economic structure. "The coming collapse of China" remarks were made by Western "economic fantasies" fabricated.

Its excellent performance in China in the past 40 years, even beyond the early economic reform, Deng Xiaoping made the ambitious growth forecasts: Deng Xiaoping's first target was from 1981 to 2000, China's economy will grow to 400%--actual economic growth reached 623%. The second goal was from 2000 to 2050, China's GDP to grow 400%--from 1981 to 2050 GDP growth to 1600%. In fact, 2014, China's economy has more than 2200%--over the 1981 38 years before the Deng Xiaoping's goal has been realized!

World Bank statistics show Chinese population of the living expenses of less than 1.25 dollars a day from 1981 to 835 million by 2008, reduced to 173 million in 2009, further reduced from 157 million. That is to say, in 28 years, there were 678 million people out of extreme poverty, a decline of 81.2%! Meanwhile, other parts of the world except for China increased the number of people living in extreme poverty by 50 million.

Human rights is the United States and other Western countries, interference in the internal affairs of an important tool. The funny thing is, even in the areas where the most smug, on the comparative analysis of key data, are not as lofty as himself. American commentators have weilian·bulumu pointed out that United States "World War II" human rights record since undignified: America had people throwing bombs to more than 30 countries. The United States had attempted to overthrow more than more than 50 foreign Governments, even though most of these Governments are elected. The United States has tried to assassinate more than more than 50 foreign leaders. By comparison, China's human rights record is the best in the world: China has led 700 million people out of poverty--more than the EU and Latin America combined, almost twice the population of the United States. Social security coverage had reached 820 million people, health care coverage for up to 1 billion people. China's contribution to world poverty reduction rate of 100%. 1950 to 2016, China in the context of their level of development and people's living standards are not high, today provided grants of more than 400 billion yuan. China brings true prosperity, no country in the world comparable to those achieved with China.

Two

To spread the "China threat theory", Western China is sometimes compared to 1914 "a war" before the German, which is made up of the lack of historical knowledge. Why Germany 1914 to wage wars of aggression? Because the rulers of Germany has reached the peak of their strength in the past, military has begin to weakens significantly, finance has also started tight, military position is weakening, not beyond more hands are going to be the enemy of the United States and Russia, can only one basket.

China's current situation and contrary to Germany in 1914. Compared with the powerful economic rival, China's economic strength is not weak, and is the world's most dynamic economies. China's military position than the United States, but enhanced its military strength, is the rapid progress in comprehensive power up an opportune time to improve. Moreover, the last more than 10 years to clamor about "pre-emptive wars", is not a head of State is now created, but in Germany in 1914, patterns of aggression, some even in a terrible rumor trick cooked up invasion story, no return on the large numbers of teenagers cheat, these same practices and the practices of the German fascist. "Who plays Germany's belligerent role", is it not evident!

In recent years, American of some publications often will appeared was creepy of title, such as is coming of China war: in what place started, how won victory compete for hegemony: China and American East control right of race,, these are reflected has American "new conservatism" thought uphold against views, manufacturing "China threat on the", also, some official without hide to big on special on anti-China speech and advocates, has in diplomatic policy developed sector produced effect, worth we alert.

Us politicians to go around saying "the United States is the greatest country in the world" and "America is the greatest nation in the history of the Earth" sort of argument, its inner meaning, always reminds people involuntarily have been gathering dust for more than 70 years "German" and "Aryan Nation" "militaristic" such words. The mainstream media in the United States, such as the New York Times, also tried to cater to China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the United States, for its foreign policy might include hard to concoct the "China threat theory." In fact, deliberately strengthening the United States ' so-called "leadership" hegemonic thinking, is one of the root causes of tension in the world.

(Author: former Deputy Governor, Bank of China and the people's University ninth senior researcher at the finance Research Institute)

(Editors: Liu Cheng UN649)
2017-04-07 14:51:31
Surging news

人类未来取决于中国 而非美国

　　中国拥有人类五分之一的人口，这就注定这个国家不能平庸，不容忽视。习近平主席在2017年达沃斯论坛开幕式上的讲话中指出，新兴市场国家和发展中国家对全球经济增长的贡献率已达到80%。国际金融危机爆发以来，中国经济增长对世界经济增长的贡献率年均在30%以上。由此可见，实现中国梦——这样的中国人民的普通愿望，将在全球范围内产生异乎寻常的影响。英国经济学者罗思义认为：“人类其他人能否获取利益取决于依据经济活力和平崛起的中国，而非先发制人发动战争导致全球陷入风险的美国。这是人类的利益和中华民族的伟大复兴联系在一起的更深层次原因。”同时，他还认为：“中国经济改革的实践成果是非凡智慧的结晶”。

　　一

　　伴随着中国的发展，当今的世界正在经历人类历史上最伟大的转折点之一。中国的崛起不仅是一个事实，也是对经济发展理论的一种检验。在中国经济改革时期，西方机构提供的绝大多数的意见是，中国应套用西方的政策，包括全面私有化——该政策被俄罗斯和东欧国家纳入1989年后的国家经济战略，并导致了1991年的苏联解体。

　　中国的经济改革始于1978年末，中国人从自己的政治经历中深刻体会到“治大国若烹小鲜”的道理，强调渐进式和双轨制的方式，排斥了休克疗法理论，在国际学术界此起彼伏的批评声中连创奇迹，实现了崛起。而采用休克疗法的俄罗斯却遭遇了自工业革命以来世界大国在和平时期经历的最严重的经济崩溃。中国的成功，可以作为经济理论的试金石。中国的伟大经济实践折射出辉煌的经济理论。中国在考虑经济政策的实际应用问题时，对外国理论有选择地应用，因为前提条件不同，其结果必然大相径庭。

　　2008年那场席卷全球的国际金融危机，西方国家没有一国能像中国一样顺利地渡过难关，却仍固执己见，认为中国的当务之急是采取造成苏联解体灾难的理论方法！结果是，中国坚持走自己的道路，昂首阔步跨过危机，取得了跨越式的经济发展：在金融危机爆发后的7年中，中国经济增长了79.9%，而同期美国的经济增长只有8.2%、德国5.0%、日本0.7%。在此期间，中国经济的年均增长率为11.4%，相比之下，美国经济的年均增长率为1.1%，德国0.7%，日本0.1%。中国的经济增速几乎是美国的10倍、德国的16倍、日本的114倍。可以说，中国经济在这段时期的出色表现是压倒性的。而G7经济体则进入了美国财政部秘书长拉里·萨默斯所说的“长期停滞”的态势。国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德女士称其为“新平庸”。

　　历史的真相是，西方国家所倡导的应对金融危机的国内政策不被中国接受，没有损害到中国。而西方国家普遍实施了他们自以为能够救难的妙着，却吞下了阻碍自身经济发展的苦果，显著加快了中国经济规模赶超美国的步伐。

　　中国的成功与西方国家的失败，导致2008年后出现了和平时期历史上短期内世界经济力量平衡的最伟大的巨变！中国和美国相较，经济结构之间的差异明显： 中国经济在国际贸易开放方面远胜美国；中国的投资水平，即占其经济的比重，远高于美国；除了财政和货币政策，中国还可以利用国家直接投资的方式改变其投资水平，而美国拒绝国家投资，仅依赖于宏观经济管理——几乎完全是财政和货币政策。为了监管其投资水平，除私营部门外，中国还拥有庞大的国有企业，而美国在意识层面拒绝设立国有企业。综上，中国的经济结构没有问题，有问题的是西方的经济结构。“中国经济即将崩溃”的言论是由西方“经济幻想”派捏造出来的。

　　中国近40年来的出色表现，甚至超出了邓小平在经济改革初期做出的雄心勃勃的经济增长预测： 邓小平的第一个预定目标是从1981年到2000年间，中国的经济规模将增长至400%——实际的经济增长达到623%。第二个目标是从2000年到2050年间，中国的GDP再增长400%——即从1981年到2050年实现GDP增长至1600%。事实上，中国2014年的经济规模已经较1981年增长超过2200%——邓小平的目标已经提前38年实现了！

　　世界银行统计数据显示，中国每天生活支出低于1.25美元的人口从1981年的8.35亿，到2008年减少到1.73亿，2009年进一步减至1.57亿。即是说，在28年中，有6.78亿中国人摆脱了极端贫困，降幅达81.2%！而同期，除中国以外的世界其他地区的极端贫困人口数量增加了5000万。

　　人权问题是美国等西方国家干涉他国内部事务时的一个重要手段。可笑的是，即使在这个他们最为自鸣得意的领域，在关键数据的对比分析上，也并不像自己标榜的那么崇高。美国时事评论员威廉·布鲁姆指出，美国自“二战”以来的人权记录极不光彩：美国曾向30多个国家的人民投掷过炸弹。美国曾企图推翻50多个外国政府，尽管这些政府大多是民选的。美国曾企图暗杀50多位外国领导人。对比来看，中国的人权记录显然是世界上最好的：中国已带领7亿人摆脱贫困——超过欧盟和拉美大陆人口总和，几乎是美国人口的两倍。中国社保覆盖人群已达8.2亿人，医保覆盖人群则达10亿人。中国对世界减贫贡献率达100%。1950年到2016年，中国在自身发展水平和人民生活水平不高的情况下，累计对外提供援款4000多亿元人民币。就中国给人类带来的这些真正的福祉而言，世界上还没有哪个国家取得的成就能与中国相媲美。

　　二

　　为散布“中国威胁论”，西方人有时将中国比作1914年“一战”前的德国，这是缺乏历史知识的编造。德国为什么选择1914年发动侵略战争？因为当时的德国执政者感到他们实力顶峰已过去，军力已明显开始变弱，财政也开始吃紧，军事地位不断弱化，再不动手就要被敌方的美国和俄国超越更多，只能孤注一掷。

　　中国当前的形势与1914年的德国恰恰相反。与强大的经济对手美国相比，中国的经济实力并不弱，并且是当今世界最具活力的经济体。中国的军事地位不如美国，但军事实力在日益增强，正是综合实力蓬勃向上迅速提高的大好时机。况且，近十几年来甚嚣尘上的“先发制人战争”，也并不是某国首脑现在的独创，而是德国在1914年提出的侵略战争模式，有的国家甚至以谣言惑众的伎俩编造出兵理由，将大批热血青年骗上不归路，这些做法与当年德国法西斯的做法如出一辙。到底“谁在扮演德国的好战角色”，岂非昭然若揭了！

　　近年来，美国的某些出版物经常会出现令人毛骨悚然的标题，诸如《即将到来的中国战争：在什么地方打响，怎样赢得胜利》《争夺霸权：中国和美国东亚控制权之争》等，这些都体现了美国“新保守主义”思潮秉持对抗观，制造“中国威胁论”，此外，一些高官毫不掩饰地大谈特谈反华言论和主张，已经在外交政策制定部门产生影响，值得我们警惕。

　　美国政界人士到处宣称“美国是世界上最伟大的国家”“美国人是地球史上最伟大的民族”之类的论调，其内在含义，总能让世人不由自主地想起已经尘封70多年的“德国”“雅利安民族”“军国主义”这类词汇。美国的一些主流媒体，如《纽约时报》，也极力迎合美国中国外交部门，为其对外政策鼓噪，卖力地炮制“中国威胁论”。其实，蓄意强化美国的所谓“领导地位”的霸权思维，才是全球局势紧张的根源之一。

　　（作者：中国银行前副行长、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院高级研究员）

(责任编辑：刘盛钱 UN649)
2017-04-07 14:51:31
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