Expert: China in 2025 will be entering the ranks of high-income countries | | | financial experts _ higher income news
Continued growth into the ranks of high-income countries, and still fall into the "middle-income trap" balk? Growth in household income, not only related to personal life and national development. "The ' middle income trap ', we'll step over, the key is how to achieve better development after crossing. "Ma Xiaohe, Vice President of China Institute of macroeconomics, the former researcher thinks so. On May 7, new supplies from the Chinese Economic Research Institute, China's new supply-side economics 50 people Forum, daily economic news, after each think tank, assisted by CITIC publishing group "the Chinese economy really question kan--' China ' seminar", Ma Xiaohe is more concerned about in what way China crossed the "middle-income trap".
In the daily economic news (hereinafter referred to as NBD) reporter in an interview, said Ma Xiaohe, across the traps rely solely on the economy, "one leg" is difficult, also needs restructuring and transformation of social structure and political restructuring to form the "three pillars" of power.
2025 is expected to cross high income threshold
NBD: "middle-income trap" discussed for nearly a decade, now why would you want to continue the discussion?
Ma Xiaohe: a "middle-income trap" is a long-term task. Minorities across the "middle-income trap" in most of the country experienced more than 20 years or even 30 years. There are States in middle stage also failed to come out, has hovered in the middle stages.
After 1996, the low into upper-middle-income phase in China, experienced a period of about 14 years, it went on the more income the greater the difficulty. The author some say China has no trap, also suggested that China was in "middle-income trap" edge, and one theory is that China is in the "middle-income trap" situation. My conclusion is that China is currently in the "middle-income trap" area in the middle.
NBD: according to current levels of economic growth, China estimated time to cross the trap?
Ma Xiaohe: in 2014 the World Bank GDP per capita in the high-income countries as defined by the initial threshold is $12736 optimistic forecasts to 2020, China's per capita GDP is expected to reach us $12000. So we even in 2020 to $12,000, should also not be allowed out of the "middle-income trap", because it failed to meet the standards high income countries.
Meanwhile, across the "middle-income trap" standards are dynamic, the Bank from 1987 until 2014, the adjustments to the above criteria. I've done calculations, 1990~ 2014 for intervals, threshold average about 2.16% per cent in high-income countries. Thus, by 2025, the World Bank standards high income is projected to be $16,000.
According to different levels of growth estimates, by 2025, per capita GDP, China optimistic estimates of the programme is us $16810, benchmarking is $15640 more pessimistic scenario is $13900. Assuming that 2025 the World Bank threshold is $16115 in high-income countries, China is estimated at between 2024-2025 threshold this threshold.
Across the trap needed economic restructuring
NBD: China's current economic slowdown would affect China "middle-income trap"?
Ma Xiaohe: from the long cycle, economic growth is an inevitable trend of the economy, concerns focus on the growth to a decline in what way, and what are the reasons for the decline.
Compared with low-income countries, low-end industries in our comparative advantage is disappearing, and compared with high-income countries, our high-end industry has no comparative advantage in innovation. If the kinetic energy lost, the new Kinetic wasn't able to catch up on, so it needs attention. If the short term growth too fast, such as quickly dropped to 2%~3% from double-digit growth level, which also want to pay attention to. From now on, China's overall economic growth steady rate of 6.5%~7%, which speed across the "middle-income trap" is also optimistic. Key is to increase the quality, of course.
NBD: old and new converts kinetic energy to advance the economic goal of structural reform on the supply side to span across the "middle-income trap"? Across the "traps" and economic structure and industrial structure have anything to do with it?
Ma Xiaohe: analysis of other economies can get across the "middle-income trap" both positive and negative cases.
Brazil into "medium income trap" time compared long, main reasons is Brazil industrialization strategy select not appropriate, heavy chemical industry priority development, also appeared has long-term inflation, and excessive urbanization, disadvantages; and from success across "medium income trap" of Japan, and Korea view, they while is achieved has needs structure success into, established has to consumption for led of social, II is industry structure also from past of in the low-end to technology intensive, and capital intensive, and high added value output led development of transformation.
China's current economic status are in the upper middle income country levels, but levels of industrial structure in a lower-middle-income countries, is an industrial structure of supply exceeding demand. The industrial structure is the biggest issue, behind traditional kinetic energy is lost, and new industry growth still in the incubation period, old and new can two completely continuous. Across the "middle-income trap" does need investment and consumption structure and industrial structure transformation.
Distributive justice help to cross the trap
NBD: the contribution of consumption to economic growth in China in the first quarter of this year reached 77.2%. How do you view the current economy driven by consumption in China?
Ma Xiaohe: current consumption to the economic contribution has increased, important because investment contribution rate is falling. 2015 in 3000~ $12000 per capita income between the countries of the world, Chinese residents ' consumption as a share of GDP ratio is only 38%, were lower than the consumption level of Malaysia, Egypt and other countries, generally middle and upper income State residents ' consumption rate is above 50%. Investment than consumption crowding by the General Assembly.
NBD: how income distribution affects across the "middle-income trap"?
Ma Xiaohe: middle income group is the subject of innovation, are the subject of consumption, is also the subject of improving human capital, or social stability, this group expanded to span the "middle-income trap". Now, by 2025 China aims to achieve higher income threshold that needed attention after that threshold is crossed, how to achieve better development. Across the "middle-income trap" is not only GDP per capita growth, also need to be supported more equitable income distribution, form the olive-shaped social pattern, also requires reform of the economic structure and social structure transformation, and many other support. Japan, South Korea, across the middle phase, also reflects the timely formation of middle class, synchronous progress of urbanization, political restructuring and changes in the economic structure, social structure, characteristics.
>: Tang Liu Guangbo
Article keywords:Higher-income expert financial
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专家:中国将在2025年进入高收入国家行列|高收入|专家|财经_新闻资讯
是持续增长进入高收入国家行列，还是落入“中等收入陷阱”而逡巡不前？居民收入增长，不仅关乎个人生活，而且关乎国家发展。“‘中等收入陷阱’，我们早晚会跨过去，关键是跨过之后怎样实现更好的发展。”中国宏观经济研究院原副院长、研究员马晓河这样认为。5月7日，在由华夏新供给经济学研究院、中国新供给经济学50人论坛主办，每日经济新闻、每经智库、中信出版集团协办的“中国经济真问题——‘中国的坎’研讨会”上，马晓河更为关注中国以什么样的方式跨过“中等收入陷阱”。
在接受《每日经济新闻》（以下简称NBD）记者专访时，马晓河表示，跨越陷阱单靠经济“一条腿”是困难的，还需要需求结构转型、社会结构转型以及政治结构转型，以形成“三足鼎立”之势。
2025年有望跨过高收入门槛
NBD：“中等收入陷阱”讨论将近十年了，现在为什么还要继续讨论？
马晓河：“中等收入陷阱”是一个长期的课题。少数跨越“中等收入陷阱”的国家大多经历了20年甚至30年时间。有些国家陷入中等收入阶段到目前也没有走出来，一直徘徊在中等收入阶段。
1996以后，中国从中低收入进入到中上等收入阶段，经历了大约14年的时间，但越往前走收入增加的难度会越大。国内理论界有人说中国没有陷阱，也有人认为中国处在“中等收入陷阱”边缘，还有一种说法是中国正处于“中等收入陷阱”的困境中。我的研究结论是，中国当前正处于“中等收入陷阱”的中间区域。
NBD：按照当前的经济增长水平，中国估计什么时间能够跨越陷阱？
马晓河：2014年，世界银行划定的高收入国家人均GDP初始门槛是12736美元，乐观预计到2020年，中国人均GDP有望达到12000美元。所以说我们即使2020年达到1.2万美元，也不能算走出“中等收入陷阱”区域，因为还没能达到高等收入国家的标准。
同时，跨越“中等收入陷阱”的标准是动态的，世行从1987年到2014年连续多次调整上述标准。我做过测算，1990~ 2014年为区间，高收入国家门槛值年均大约上调2.16%。这样算来，到2025年，世行高收入标准预计将达到1.6万美元。
按不同增长水平测算，到2025年，中国人均GDP乐观方案估计是16810美元，基准方案是15640美元，较悲观的方案是13900美元。假设2025年世行高收入国家门槛是16115美元，那么中国估计在2024~2025年之间跨入这个门槛。
跨越陷阱需要经济结构转型
NBD：当前中国经济增速放缓会影响到中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”吗？
马晓河：从长周期来看，经济增速下降是一个经济体的必然趋势，重点需要关注的是增速以一种什么样的方式下降，以及下降的原因是什么。
与低收入国家相比，我们的中低端产业比较优势正在消失；而与高收入国家相比，我们的高端产业在创新上又没有比较优势。如果旧动能丧失了，新动能没能够及时补上，这样的话就需要引起注意了。如果短期内增速下降太快，比如从两位数增速快速下降到2%~3%的水平，这也要引起重视。从现在看，中国经济增速总体稳定在6.5%~7%的水平，这种速度对跨越“中等收入陷阱”还是乐观的。当然关键还是要看增长质量。
NBD：以推进经济新旧动能转换为目标之一的供给侧结构性改革是否有助于跨越“中等收入陷阱”？跨越“陷阱”和经济结构、产业结构有什么关系？
马晓河：分析其他经济体可以得到跨越“中等收入陷阱”正反两方面案例。
巴西陷入“中等收入陷阱”时间比较长，主要原因就是巴西工业化战略选择不恰当，重化工业优先发展，还出现了长期通胀、过度城市化等弊端；而从成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”的日本、韩国来看，它们一方面是实现了需求结构成功转化，建立了以消费为主导的社会，二是产业结构也从过去的中低端向技术密集、资本密集、高附加值产出主导发展的转型。
中国当前经济状态是处于中上等收入国家水平，但产业结构处于中下等收入国家水平，是一种供给超过需求的产业结构。这种产业结构最大问题是，落后的传统产出动能正在丧失，而新兴产业成长还在孕育期，新旧两个动能不能完全接续。跨越“中等收入陷阱”的确需要投资结构、消费结构、产业结构转型。
分配公平有助于跨越陷阱
NBD：今年一季度中国消费对经济增长的贡献率达到77.2%。您如何看当前中国消费对经济的推动作用？
马晓河：当前消费对经济贡献有所上升，重要原因是投资贡献率下降带来的。2015年在世界人均收入在3000~ 12000美元之间的国家中，中国居民消费占GDP的比率仅为38%，比马来西亚、埃及等国家的消费水平都低，一般中上等收入水平国家居民消费率在50%以上。投资占比大会对消费形成挤出效应。
NBD：收入分配是如何影响跨越“中等收入陷阱”的？
马晓河：中等收入群体是创新的主体，是消费的主体，也是人力资本提升的主体，还是社会的稳定主体，这一群体扩大有助于跨越“中等收入陷阱”。现在看来，到2025年中国跨入高等收入门槛的目标是能够实现的，需要关注的是跨过这道门槛之后，怎么样实现更好的发展。跨越“中等收入陷阱”不仅仅是人均GDP增长，还需要更公平的收入分配体系加以支撑，形成橄榄型的社会格局，还需要经济结构转型、社会结构转型等多方面改革的支撑。日本、韩国在跨越中等收入阶段时，也体现出及时形成中产阶级，城市化同步推进，以及政治结构转型与经济结构、社会结构相适应的特点。
>责任编辑：刘光博
文章关键词： 高收入 专家 财经
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