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published in(发表于) 2016/3/8 8:40:04
Views: networking, smartphones will eventually die out

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Views: networking, smartphones will eventually die-mobile Internet, Internet of things-IT information

Since intelligent phone swept zhihou, increasingly more of life content was plug into has this block 5 inch around of screen in the, phone change has life, also change has whole industry chain of money logic, so, swarm of manufacturer all Chung to has this industry, are dream with change world, way sent a pen windfall, but with industry chain of development, most of Terminal manufacturer only realized that here of money bad earned, Apple a alone big, occupy whole industry chain 92% of profit, Samsung followed subsequently, barely keep profit, While other manufacturers seem to only ever call, maybe they can make money by other channels, but in terms of hardware, they should lose in a mess.

Now, phone hardware design has into bottleneck period, tough as Apple also didn't can in 2015 launched let people front a bright of products, other manufacturer of design change, also more is stunt is greater than practical, like increasingly thin of phone, thin have like A4 paper as; border increasingly narrow, narrow have capacity down a only Ant of feet, or simple to in hardware parameter Shang upgrade, still on ten nuclear, and eight nuclear of; GalaxyS6 of display surface design is said to have get has many best phone design award, But as a consumer, I always wonder, surface design is what benefits does a twisted face will charm you? Face hardware cannot profit of embarrassing, many manufacturer also has a dream in support himself live down, they hopes with future in software Shang of breakthrough, like many phone are pre-installed has large route unknown of software, slightly forced sex to requirements user using, to this get income, also some manufacturer, not by phone itself money, instead in Accessories, and recycling aspects gets profit, anyway, around with existing of phone form also is has large gold can dug.

The mobile shape will eventually disappear?

May, we hard imagine now swept global of intelligent phone will disappeared, this was is Arabian nights, but technology of run law this on so, once emerging things appeared has, old of things on only threw to Museum in , like human first of communications way is war in the of beacon signals, can now who also can't in battlefield Shang set fire to has; history Shang, Motorola of mobile once upon a time had into has identity status of symbol, United Kingdom Prime Minister Churchill in second times world war in the, Mobile in his hand directing military operations, becoming one of the most classic picture on the history of human communication, feature phones appeared to make the cell phone completely die out the way perish the BP machines have the same renowned, but now they consistently lost to Apple, in short, from the perspective of communication rules the law of historical development future, any form of communication most 終 'll disappear!

Phone form, will disappeared, this is a sentence nonsense, actually, universe in the no what is eternal of, but is in this when on "phone disappeared of thing", while is for phone hardware of innovation early into bottleneck period, everyone are crescendo Dim, and Ninja nausea said himself of phone on fast beyond iPhone has; on the increasingly more of Terminal form began invasion mobile Internet, is to those bitter forced of manufacturer are mention a woke up: hard Rob to of market, may is Apple, and Samsung began to abandon the field, God knows, their laboratory there is nothing new in stuff?

In fact, feature phone can rapidly replace fixed-line, is that it makes human communication out of the shackles of telephone lines, and the popularity of smartphones, it is because of human communication from the shackles of cable, in General, they are free of human nature fresh terminal platforms, and only in this way will become the mainstream of the times. Now, popular of intelligent phone also does not perfect, although we has can mobile to call, and mobile to Internet, but still to worried phone of power, specific regional of signal problem, also has processing speed and so on, that is, next mainstream of Terminal form, must is can improved even eradication these problem of, while and cannot too your, like intelligent car as mobile terminal, certainly without worried power problem, has has energy zhihou, signal received, and application upgrade and so on are not problem, this is why Apple, and Google have launched a vehicle-mounted system, and paying high prices for traditional automotive manufacturers, it seems, only 5-inch Smartphone is simply cannot afford these big ambitions, and once there is a new, better use of the Terminal, Smartphone form has disappeared which is understandable!

All things networking, how much farther is it?

Intelligent phone is so swept, has is big part reasons is it of integrated, as begins by said, increasingly more of life content was hard plug into has this 5 inch around of screen among, but while also means with, phone are became crowded, reaction became not so sensitive, and integrated has always been is to sacrifice "professional" for cost of, so, phone is has battery problem, and signal problem and processor problem, so, Dang phone capacity reached not breakthrough of limit Shi, Will and will go a article by integrated to professional of road , like professional of calls, and professional of photography, and professional of game and social and so on, certainly has, this dispersion not return, more not put those has eliminated of things again wipe a wipe continues to with, but a new of mode, with compared fashion of Word is called "everything networking", also that Dang all are can networking Shi, phone form natural on disappeared has !

To achieve interconnection of all things in the world seem to still have a long way to go, but the context is clear, even science-fiction film of Director in this direction is clear. First, everything networking zhiqian need found new of interactive way, including people and equipment Zhijian, and equipment and equipment Zhijian, also was to equipment to people Zhijian, especially people and equipment Zhijian more is has broad of exploration space, initially of when, we relies on keyboard and Dos Exchange, black of page, complex of instruction only professionals to operation; later appeared has mouse and Windows, computer moments became general consumers also can play have turned of commodity, human with machine of Exchange reached peak, Really changed the world.

Mobile Internet times, human and machine of exchange more simple, in iOS and Android platform Shang as long as will "touch" of people on can Internet, in can foreseen of future, in everything Internet of times, we will to found more natural, and more simple of interactive way, including language, and gestures, and even eyes and ideas are has may was equipment perception, also only has such of interactive speed, everything networking is has real of meaning! Communication between devices and devices will become more frequent and rapid, automatic chip such as aircraft engines, signals can be transmitted directly to the management platform, report their condition, and an intelligent management platform is able to adjust the command. Second, everything networking times need more reliable, and more efficient, and more security of communications way, now two Taiwan phone exchange, also need traditional of base station do forward, this in is big degree Shang waste has communications efficiency and bandwidth, future of interactive way must is end on end Exchange, like two a phone directly dialogue, or phone and computer, and TV, and bathtub, and curtains directly dialogue, any can installation chip of objects are will became information processing platform, in auxiliary to big data, and cloud computing, and induction device, means, let everything are became intelligent of, Become an extension of natural persons effective.

Phone form disappeared has, commercial mode also will followed has turned upside down of changes, that times in, data will will became commercial of blood and cell, so, has powerful data processing capacity of enterprise will earned many money, even will appeared new of economic President, also of, industry pattern also will restructuring, Apple of hardware profit will will diluted, no people willing to for a disappeared of things pay; Samsung has may pulled one back a city, they of full industry chain will will in everything Internet times play huge role, as China phone manufacturer, May always sell a bunch without your cell phone into the phone.


观点:万网联网兴起,智能手机终将消亡 - 移动互联网,物联网 - IT资讯

自从智能手机风靡之后,越来越多的生活内容被塞进了这块5寸左右的屏幕中,手机改变了生活,也改变了整个产业链的赚钱逻辑,于是,一窝蜂的制造商全部涌到了这个行业,都梦想着改变世界,顺便发一笔横财,但随着产业链的发展,大多数的终端制造商才意识到这里的钱不好赚,苹果一家独大,占据整个产业链92%的利润,三星紧随其后,勉强保持盈利,而其他一些制造商则似乎只能永远吆喝着,或许他们可以靠其他渠道赚钱,但在硬件方面,他们应该亏得一塌糊涂。

现在,手机硬件设计已经进入瓶颈期,强悍如苹果也没能在2015年推出让人眼前一亮的产品,其他制造商的设计变更,也多是噱头大于实用,比如越来越薄的手机,薄得如同A4纸一样;边框越来越窄,窄得容不下一只蚂蚁的脚,或者单纯地在硬件参数上提升,动不动就十核、八核的;GalaxyS6的显示屏曲面设计据说获得了很多最佳手机设计奖,但作为普通消费者,笔者始终想不明白,曲面设计究竟有什么好处,难道一个扭曲的脸会更有韵味吗?面对硬件无法盈利的尴尬,众多制造商还有一个梦在支撑自己活下去,他们希冀着未来在软件上的突破,比如很多手机都预装了大量来路不明的软件,略带强迫性地要求用户使用,以此获得收入,还有一些制造商,不靠手机本身赚钱,转而在配件、回收方面获取利润,总之,围绕着现有的手机形态还是有大量金矿可挖。

手机形态,终将消失?

或许,我们很难想象如今风靡全球的智能手机会消失,这简直是天方夜谭,但科技的运行规律本就如此,一旦新兴事物出现了,旧的东西就只能扔到博物馆里,比如人类最早的通信方式就是战争中的烽火狼烟,可如今谁也不敢在战场上放火了;近代史上,摩托罗拉的大哥大曾几何时竟成了身份地位的象征,英国首相丘吉尔在第二次世界大战中,手拿大哥大指挥军队作战,成为人类通信历史上最经典的画面之一,功能手机的出现让这个大哥大彻底消亡,顺便消亡的还有同样名噪一时的BP机,而如今它们又统一地输给了苹果,总之,从通信历史发展規律來看,任何的通信形态最終都會消失!

手机形态,终将消失,这是一句废话,事实上,宇宙中没有什么是永恒的,但之所以在这个时候谈”手机消失的事儿”,一方面是因手机硬件的创新早就步入瓶颈期,大家都意兴阑珊、忍者恶心说自己的手机就快超越iPhone了;另一方面越来越多的终端形态开始入侵移动互联网,正在给那些苦逼的制造商们提个醒:辛辛苦苦抢夺来的市场,可能正是苹果三星们开始放弃的领域,鬼才知道,他们的实验室里有什么新奇的玩意呢?

其实,功能手机能迅速取代固定电话,正在于它让人类通信摆脱了电话线的束缚,而智能手机的风靡,则是因人类通信摆脱了网线的束缚,总得来说,它们都是解放人类天性的新鲜终端平台,也只有这样才会成为时代主流。现在,流行的智能手机也并不完美,虽然我们已经能移动地打电话、移动地上网,但依旧要担心手机的电量,特定区域的信号问题,还有处理速度等等,也就是说,下一个主流的终端形态,一定是能改善甚至消灭这些问题的,同时又不能太贵,比如智能汽车作为移动终端,肯定不用担心电量问题,有了能量之后,信号接收、应用升级等等都不是问题,这就是为什么苹果Google都推出了车载系统,且花大价钱与传统汽车厂商合作,看起来,只有5寸的智能手机是根本承受不了这些巨头之野心的,而一旦有了新的、更好用的终端,智能手机形态消失也就是情理之中的事儿了!

万物联网,还有多远?

智能手机之所以如此风靡,有很大一部分原因在于它的综合性,如开篇所述,越来越多的生活内容被硬塞进了这个5寸左右的屏幕之中,但同时也意味着,手机正变得拥挤不堪,反应变得不那么灵敏,而且综合性向来是以牺牲”专业”为代价的,于是,手机才有了电池问题、信号问题以及处理器问题,所以,手机容量达到不可突破的极限时,势必又会走一条由综合到专业的路,比如专业的通话、专业的照相、专业的游戏和社交等等,当然了,这种分散性不是回归,更不是把那些已经淘汰的东西重新擦一擦继续用,而是一种全新的模式,用比较时髦的词儿就是叫”万物联网”,也即当一切都能联网时,手机形态自然就消失了

世界要实现万物联网似乎还有很长的路要走,但整体的脉络已然清晰,这个方向甚至连科幻电影的导演都清楚了。首先,万物联网之前需要找到新的交互方式,包括人与设备之间、设备与设备之间,还有人到设备到人之间,特别是人与设备之间更是有着广阔的探索空间,最初的时候,我们依靠键盘和Dos交流,黑乎乎的页面,复杂的指令只有专业人员才能操作;后来出现了鼠标和windows,电脑瞬间成为普通消费者也能玩得转的日用品,人类同机器的交流达到顶峰,真正意义上地改变了世界。

移动互联网时代,人类与机器的交流更加简单,在iOS和Android平台上只要会“触摸”的人就能上网,在可预见的未来,在万物互联网的时代,我们势必要找到更自然、更简单的交互方式,包括语言、手势、甚至眼神和意念都有可能被设备感知,也只有具备这样的交互速度,万物联网才有了真正的意义!设备与设备之间的沟通也会更加频繁和迅速,比如飞机的发动机自动芯片,可以直接传送信号给管理平台,报告自己的运行状态,而一个智能的管理平台是能自主发出调整命令的。其次,万物联网时代需要更可靠、更高效、更安全的通信方式,现在两台手机交流,还需要传统的基站做转发,这在很大程度上浪费了通信效率和带宽,未来的交互方式一定是端对端交流,比如两个手机直接对话,或者手机和电脑、电视、浴缸、窗帘直接对话,任何能安装芯片的物体都将成为信息处理平台,在辅以大数据、云计算、感应器等手段,让万物都变得智能化,成为自然人的有效延伸。

手机形态消失了,商业模式也会跟着有天翻地覆的变化,那个时代里,数据将会成为商业的血液和细胞,所以,拥有强大数据处理能力的企业会赚很多钱,甚至会出现新的经济总统,同样的,产业格局也会重组,苹果的硬件利润将会稀释,没有人愿意为一个消失的东西埋单;三星有可能扳回一城,他们的全产业链将会在万物互联网时代发挥巨大作用,至于中国手机制造商,可能又会把一堆永远卖出不的手机砸在手机






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