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published in(发表于) 2016/3/15 17:25:45
China shanzhai is rampant, Apple and Google are afraid,

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中文

Cottage is rampant in China, Apple Google is afraid of Google, Apple Auto-IT information

Apple has yet to build cars. Google has been in the vehicle design, it is ready to manufacture small driverless cars will be outsourced to other companies. Some new car dealers have started selling vehicles such as Tesla, 2015 Tesla production of 50,000 cars. Meanwhile, the United States, the traditional auto industry manufacturing and sales of 17.5 million cars and trucks a year. Reality and there is a huge gap between the highly speculative vision for the future, such differences did not prevent authorities, technology and car-watchers made a guess: Apple and Google will be subversive of the auto industry.

Some experts believe that Google could be your development and design prototypes, and then with Chinese auto manufacturers, contract manufacturers in Asia (such as Foxconn, a subsidiary of Hon Hai precision industry) co-production. Given Apple a lot of iPhone and iPad manufacturing is done in China, some people speculated Apple would not in United States production cars, but in China.

Idea is tempting, but it ignores one important fact: Assembly of smartphones and cars are completely different. Tesla is one of the most technologically advanced car manufacturer, it must be out in the factories producing cars, they use expensive and huge robots bend steel and large mechanical devices, in which a factory is located in the North of the State of California. Look at other United States automobile manufacturers, their United States sales of most of the cars are in the United States domestic production. Detroit's big three, into the United States market in Japan and Germany car manufacturer, they choose in the United States Southern States the production car.

Some car production has moved to Mexico, in the past period of time, Mexico will portray itself as United States companies NAFTA (North American free trade agreement) manufacturing partners, invest in an automotive supply chain.

China orders

China is totally different. Ford, General Motors, Volkswagen and other carmakers are manufacturing cars in China and familiar brands, if they refused to establish joint ventures with Chinese partners, they will not be able to enter the Chinese market. This arrangement was a compromise: a foreign car maker if you want to get into the huge Chinese Auto market will have to share their research results.

Cooperation is not equal, Chinese carmakers are not willing to just become Western design assembly lines, which developed into a strong manufacturing base. In the production of the Buick at the same time, they also produce Chinese-brand cars and trucks.

Speaking of Apple and Google, if you want to produce cars in China, and it looks like they're transforming consumer product manufacturers for the automotive manufacturer. Theoretically it is possible: to change the design of the car, will be part of it as a networked consumer electronics technology to produce. But in fact, car makers may be catching up to the leaders, even the self-driving cars of innovation is no exception, Tesla already knows this.

Margins under pressure

Profit margin of the whole automobile industry 10%, lower in bad times, while Apple auto margins may reach 30%. If you think Apple and Google will sell electric drone technology to customers in China, China instead of Europe and get in the major markets, it's probably because you don't think of a number of other factors: China's big cities-jam, is a nightmare for driverless cars; in the development of China's road system is, it is better suited for truck and SUV.

Behind Apple and Google about the other car will continue in the United States making cars outside, because of cheaper labor in Asia, and they import cars from Asia. Apple has used the same strategy with great success, as cars are not likely to manufacture some conventional cars is possible, but to make a revolutionary car was completely impossible.


中国山寨猖獗,苹果谷歌也害怕 - 谷歌,苹果汽车 - IT资讯

苹果还没有制造汽车。谷歌已经在设计汽车,它准备将小型无人驾驶汽车的生产外包给其它企业。一些新兴汽车商已经开始销售汽车,比如特斯拉,2015年特斯拉生产了5万辆汽车。与此同时,单看美国,传统汽车产业每年要制造和销售1750万辆汽车和卡车。现实和高度投机的未来憧憬之间存在巨大的差距,这种差距没能阻止权威人士、科技和汽车观察家作出一个猜测:苹果谷歌将成为汽车产业的颠覆者。

一些专家认为,谷歌可能会自己开发和设计原型产品,然后与中国汽车制造商、亚洲合同制造商(比如鸿海精密旗下的富士康)合作生产。考虑到苹果大量的iPhone和iPad制造是在中国进行的,一些人理所当然地猜测苹果不会在美国生产汽车,而是在中国。

想法很诱人,但它忽视了一个重要的事实:组装智能手机和制造汽车是完全不同的。特斯拉是目前技术最先进的汽车制造商之一,它必须在巨大的工厂里生产汽车,这些工厂利用昂贵而庞大的机器人和大型机械设备来弯曲钢铁,其中的一座工厂位于北加利福尼亚州。再看看其它美国的汽车制商,它们在美国销售的汽车大多是在美国本土生产的。底特律三巨头,进入美国市场的日本和德国汽车制造商,它们都选择在美国南部各州生产汽车。

一些汽车产能已经转移到墨西哥,在过去的一段时间里,墨西哥将自己塑造成美国企业的NAFTA(北美自由贸易协定)制造合作伙伴,它投资打造了一条汽车供应链。

中国发号施令

中国完全不同。福特、通用汽车、大众及其它汽车制造商都在中国制造汽车,然后用人们熟悉的品牌销售,如果拒绝与中国合作伙伴建立合资公司,它们就无法进入中国市场。这样的安排无疑是一种妥协:外国汽车制造商如果想挤进庞大的中国汽车市场就必须分享自己的研发成果。

合作是不对等的,中国汽车制造商不甘心只是成为西方设计的组装线,它们想发展为强大的国家制造基地。在生产别克的同时,它们也生产中国品牌的汽车和卡车。

谈到苹果谷歌,如果要在中国生产汽车,看起来它们要将消费产品制造商转变为汽车制造商。从理论上说是可能的:改变汽车的设计,将它当成连网消费电子科技的一部分来生产。但从实际上看,汽车制造方可能会追赶上领先者,甚至连创新的自动驾驶汽车也不例外,特斯拉已经清楚这一点了。

利润率承受压力

整个汽车产业的利润率就10%左右,在糟糕的年代更低,而苹果汽车的利润率可能会达到30%。如果你认为苹果谷歌会将全电动无人驾驶技术出售给中国客户,让中国而不是欧美成为自己的主要市场,那可能是因为你忽略了一些其它的因素:中国大城市堵车严重,对无人驾驶汽车而言简直是噩梦;中国的道路系统正在发展中,它更适合卡车和SUV。

抛开苹果谷歌不谈,其它汽车商会继续在美国之外制造汽车,因为亚洲的劳动力便宜,然后它们会从亚洲进口汽车。苹果已经用同样的策略取得了巨大的成功,至于汽车却不太可能;制造一些传统汽车是可能的,但要制造颠覆性汽车却完全不可能。






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