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published in(发表于) 2016/3/17 7:10:58
Apple and millet: fans, also lost fans,

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中文

Apple and millet: fans, lost fans-iPhone6s,iOS,iPhone6s Plus, millet 5-IT information

On February 24, on this special day, Lei released millet 5. Millet 5 to Xiao long 820 on the one hand had to abruptly "drag" for 19 months, waiting for Godot are millet, on the other hand this day was jobs ' 61 years old offering, thirdly, millet and Lei redefined "fever" and "black science".

Millet millet 5 briefing may be a release of successive products are sad, not to mention the selling point was scheduled for two hours show time only 1.5 hours to say, even more important is the selling point of the product presentation and Lei's live performance was disappointing:

1) not familiar with the speech, poor PPT link, and often read the teleprompter, positive feedback from rice field (applause) and less;

2) marketing beyond the product features, refined in order to spread the so-called "black science" only vendor attribute, or other functions that have been used;

3) millet products lead gradually less prominent, weaknesses highlighted, but millet does not want to, cannot open it.

From a product perspective, millet 5 like iPhone 6s gave the impression, pretty but not stunning, despite outstanding but not detached, although fans love, but the heat has been reduced, although lips do not say it bitterness in his heart. It can be said that millet and apples are in a different situation, but faced the same predicament, and is now difficult to solve this dilemma, direction in the front but the Minister qie is to not do it.

Brand core adhesion factors no longer

Lei in 2014, is expressed as "station on the air, pigs will fly", is that the external environment for the development of impact, and when the external environment changes businesses everything has changed. Newby genotype also in harmony with the environment in order to have a good performance, or else it will appear Orange Huaibei recognition situations.

Apple and millet is also facing external effects of environmental change, the original factor of success is no longer valid in the new environment, brand and gradually weaken adhesion, gradually Dim the aura of the brand.

Apple

Apple is very easy to understand, as the largest product manager and foresight at the helm after his death, core of the adhesion force of Apple's brand--innovation--will fade away, Apple feels no longer is the company that changed the world. Publication of the Bloomberg global poll says Bloomberg, investors that Apple losing innovation leadership 71%, 28% per cent of respondents said that Apple had lost creative leadership, only 23% respondents said Apple remained excellent company.

In the 4 years after his death, Apple rarely innovative product release, only Apple released brand new Watch did not meet the expected success, last year only 12 million ... .... Supply chain expert cook is gradually moving Apple into a successful for-profit business, but not an innovative company, Apple has lost the magic.

Millet

Brand core adhesion of millet stems from "value for money", but it cannot be called brand qualities of millet .

As the competitors know about millet patterns, the mobile phone industry into a ferocious price war, with prices for the market into the mainstream. Many of the traditional company model to grab the millet millet market and occupy the user's mind. Millet's "value for money" gradually starting from millet 4 less prominent, and millet 5 is rice called it disingenuous for. Smartphone replacement boom ended and compounded the situation.

Even more serious is the location of millet. Trout positioning system to tell us, "let the brand occupies a most advantageous place in the minds of consumers, so that the brand becomes a category or something representative of the brand. ”

Millet brand confusion in the product line extends the user brand recognition, the launch of red rice and millet from the price positioning of sink-cheap easy to use lower-priced, with the selling of cheap red rice, millet become users of red rice. And this user to locate a form, millet brand series of Note would be difficult to achieve a breakthrough.

Some industry analysts say, series of red rice in millet's sales accounted for as much as 70%-80%, in accordance with the terms of sale, brand has become a cheap red rice with millet, at the low end of the market only a bloody price wars and not brand premium. When the "value" can no longer become the core strengths of millet, millet brand adhesion factors gradually missing.

Once millet Troika can also use to describe their ecological, but Meizu flyme, Huawei's ease of upgrade, millet had to transfer the selling point to talk about feelings and design. Is not to say that feelings and couldn't speak, but this is not the current strengths of millet, millet of fragmented marketing and product characteristics for marketing and marketing, millet back into even copying Apple and Samsung in a war of words.

Once you lose the adhesion of the brand, regardless of the Apple aura or millet are beginning to fade, into a "non-special" normal commercial companies, and fans will abandon it, public opinion and the media will be packaged as a loser.

Fans also lost fans

In Internet background Xia, debris of of channel and information entrance led to user of attention is born divergent, and lack focused of, so has a focused concern enterprise of died loyalty powder is important, this is Apple, and millet can quickly reputation detonated of reasons, is Hammer technology why in T1 sales does not is good of case Xia still can in T2 Shang get favored of key, this all are is fans of role.

But you have democratic love reactive officials, although the son of the father does not love bad, brands cannot provide psychological satisfaction to fans, when brands can't continue to amaze fans of experience, may be the same person baiyexiaohe results.

For fans, want to get fans of all ages will continue to provide the expected product experience, Apple products are innovative and make experiences, millet is the most cost-effective and best mobile phone rings, but these two rings are gradually lost its appeal to fans.

First, the fans tolerated continuously upgrade

A few years ago a leading innovation and function enough to allow user's eyes lit up, but after a few years of user leading to the same now can feel completely free. That's why variety show third season ratings tended to be lower in the future, such as the voice of China, fourth quarter auditions selection criteria requires not only the voice of the singer of Monster, also have stories of cases still can not satisfy the audience's appetite.

More fans so crazy in love with the brand's audience base? Crazy not only tolerance but also higher, while retaining her love of deep responsibility to the cutting frame of mind, so that's what Chapman and John Lennon fired five shots, just because: "you've changed. "Moore effect works as well as in the field of digital products, user innovation (price) expectations exceed the actual performance of the product users will be disappointed and will leave after so many disappointments.

Second, the fan attention is limited, and fans need to be stimulated to be activated

Rise of new products is bound to want to carve up the part of the fans ' attention, fans will naturally into the arms of rivals, so fans need to constantly receive brand information brand events and media to get more discussion, and captured the attention of fans.

Theory about the human mind, there are five major flaws: limited brain capacity, dislike chaos, lack of security, already things are unlikely to change in the brain, often lose focus. So, the simplest approach is to occupy the first position in the minds of consumers, if not the first, it is best to become one of the top two, was to occupy the user's mind. Millet in 2015, shipments in the domestic market reached 70 million, finished only expectations 70% goal side confirmed fans of the mind was preempted by competing products, many rice noodles to black is also a side is all about.

Third, the fan dynamic balance between individuality and commonness is being broken

I have always thought that smart devices on the mobile phone as one of the most close to the body, is far better than clothing, accessory a man can better reflect the taste of the product. But with the increase of apples and rice shipments, has been reduced to the two Arcade, when everyone's "personality" became a faceless case, genuine "personality" fans will flee. Singapore, Hong Kong's wealthy have begun to stay away from iPhone try Samsung, while millet town youth faded the best mysteries of the domestic mobile phone, attractive to fans is also reduced.

In addition, iPhone 5C, Apple Watch sales, millet Note poor high-end system sales are the two companies had lost its appeal to some fans.

Between the performance of the heart and love to kill

Not forgetting the beginner's mind is one of many business leaders are often hung on the lip, in particular at the plight of enterprises, there was a lot of not forgetting the beginner's mind in search of entrepreneurs, lead author at one point suspected that it was a derogatory term, real did not forget to beginner's mind is not hanging on the mouth but in practice. Google writes the unofficial slogan of the site is the don't be evil, but there is little in public, Google's leaders said it was ' don't be evil.

Often on the lips may be exactly what he lacks, is the so-called lack of make up .

Apple's innovation weakness, millet earnings growth before the two companies will have to rethink product strategies and marketing strategies, and extends outward from the center of the market, enter unfamiliar markets, do the things I have and do not want to do.

Apple build a better Apple products of the era had a strong personal will. Even though critics see bad Apple's decisions or recommendations, jobs will usually insist on, he tells users follow me as well. Cook times Apple caters to needs of users, I will give you whatever you want, will feed you well. So Apple launched an era will not touch pen, small and flat, launched a series of cameras projecting 6s and 6, in order to increase sales sly launched local gold and rose gold shell replacement mechanisms, repeatedly entered the Chinese market for suppliers of public relations and government relations ... ...

Of course some policies are not bad, but Apple is making too many concessions to market share, but this concession was an era not by choice of things and paranoid Apple vitality.

Smartphone replacement boom in the past, market competition led to rice shipments growth rate than expected, millet dream, rates-high valuation is beginning to be criticized. Millet is the latest round of investments shows that millet valuations fall back to 240~280 billion dollars, down 40%, although millet for employees and early investors to lock in gains, reduced valuations, but 40% still shows decline millet valuations started dropping, dream, dream, due to reduced growth rates are not as good as expected.

From the company's strategy, in order to maintain the rapid development of millet and valuation, Lei choked in a red rice Note3 release to announce your return business beginner's mind, to create products let users move, rather than a deliberate pursuit of sales or market share. Red Note series to shorten development cycle, April 2014 millet started missing the internationalization plan of the patent, patent loose even in India suffered a lawsuit.

Product layout, millet from one year to push a product on February 24 launched 5 and 4S products, March 29 new products launches another red rice 3 enhanced, it is learnt that at the same time also will launch a notebook computer, unmanned aerial vehicles and electric cooker. Millet one day per month if you like Huawei, Samsung opened a new Conference, and even launched air conditioning in millet, millet lock I will not be surprised.

Seen from the mobile phone products, millet from 2000 following market access 2000 and 3000 Yuan market, in the absence of patents under global market, from mobile phone markets quickly into television, Purifier, router, pad, or even film and television markets, financial markets, UAV market, portable market. ... Wide layout in the ecosystem, it can be said that millet was tied up by business development, had to expand product lines and industrial chain.

+ Hardware for non-development mode of millet Internet companies, they could have fatal run, development of millet in this fast-moving chariot can't slow down, slow down if millet marketing cost position will rapidly collapse, ecological foundations for the existence of the millet will also be affected.

Millet, the plight of Apple more than sorry

While Apple, millet are facing the same situation, but not the same. Market capitalization, Apple is still worth about $ 570 billion company, still ranked first in the market, Apple is the company of higher profits have skyrocketed, even if the market value is Google short more than once again regained the top spot the next day. Millet valued at 45 billion from a year ago to the present valuations falling 40%, valuation is an investor and market to current and future prospects of judge feedback .

Behind Apple and millet market competition environment, forecasts of future prospects is very different.

Industry competition ability

As the sole owner of the iOS system, regardless of system or hardware design, brand marketing, high quality of Apple in the short term there is no alternative. Open Android system underlying the unfriendly and insecurity led to almost all Android brand in the near future be able to compete with Apple, the only way to compete with the Apple brand, only Samsung, Samsung not to challenge Apple's height.

Playing millet are much harsher, 2015 global smart phone shipments for 1.43 billion, Android, 82%, 518 million units in shipments of domestic mobile phone market, listing new models amounted to 1496, millet millet 2015 67.5 million shipments, Huawei has 62.2 million austerity, Vivo and oppo are more than 33 million sales.

Millet of success derived from for general user of high price positioning, through reputation marketing and online reservation of way save has channel costs and marketing cost, but with other phone brand marketing way of followed up, supply chain and price system of again integration, millet of price and marketing advantage has does not so obviously, especially in 2016 millet March line Xia channel, millet of home transformation for sales channel, stationed in 1200 home suning stores, plus operators channel, are again will millet of price advantage loss out. And offline channels is millet's new profit channel was designed to expand shipments to support valuations millet is needed to verify.

Supplier bargaining power

Apple's success in addition to change in a world of innovative products, excellence in supply chain management is also important. Good supply chain management is key to Apple want to maximize profit, according to the CanaccordGenuity, 17.2% 2015 Apple dominated the Smartphone market revenues accounted for 54% of the whole industry, but profit 91% per cent of the industry as a whole, profit margins in the global market after ICBC, ranking second in the world.

Apple's supply chain management for four consecutive years the Gartner's global supply chain top 25 list, after he joined in 1998 Apple is good performance with supply chain management becoming Apple's new CEO, Apple under typical asset-light business model, almost all the key technologies and production processes were developed working with suppliers.

Apple's supply chain management is not only by large shipments, buying up capacity and high profit guarantee profits, improve their bargaining power, while plant funds support engineer residency solve technical problems with the new technology of rapid commercial to help supply chain through technologies of commercial profit from other manufacturers, build a community of interests of vendors and Apple. This is why the iPhone's price has been rising, while the average price of Android phones is declining.

2010~2015 Apple and Android phones average unit price change

The purchase of materials specified by demanding that suppliers from the Apple, through buyouts capacity, as well as supporting existing vendor competitors to keep Apple on the vendor's control. Therefore, Lei in millet was first established in search of vendor support, had no choice but to say suppliers their only concept of Apple and non-Apple.

And millet on the supplier's control is several orders of magnitude worse than Apple, millet was established only 6 years on the one hand, in supply chain management is not enough. Other is suppliers of rice shipments, and supplier profit margin was not enough to get attention, gain greater bargaining power .

So millet 5 only had to bitter, mycophenolate mofetil Dragon 820 has 19 months time, so millet early only had to make futures marketing; so millet in new released Shi had to avoid Apple, to avoid Fuji Kang of assembled line excessive tilt Apple and effect millet of capacity; so millet in with mediatek checks and balances Qualcomm failed Hou, had to risked was Qualcomm sanctions of dangerous consider millet core of development; so Apple can integration global range within of industry chain, and millet on industry chain of integration also limited a domain.

Than Apple, but it is also the best millet

Now all phone new launches, statements will on Apple, not took iPhone 6 and 6s for compared seems on cannot reflected himself products of special, but iPhone is a constantly Diego generation of products, impossible guarantee each function are leading opponents, also impossible guarantee each paragraph products are perfect, so only created has those constantly by obscenity reached has climax and expects let fans reached climax of phone brand.

Millet? Now millet is probably the best millet, millet has many problems, millet growth facing down, millet offline channels to expand or drag on earnings ... ... However, this is not exactly in the development of millet will experience it? High growth is not sustainable.

When the industry turned the blue sea, growth will certainly drop, and to sustain growth will experience a product line extension and product prices increase when products become arcade brand naturally attractive to users as decline, wanted to show the personality of the user will leave.

Millet company in supply chain and voice on the channel is not enough, but for a brand that was founded 6 years, millet is gradually strengthening their own short Board, make up the traditional mobile phone brand takes 20 years to build the operational experience. The high ratio of millet is not the ratio of performance and price, but the hardware configuration and price ratio, competitors copy speed and overtaking easier than software and systems, so fading millet price ... ...

It can be said that in order to ensure high-speed operation, millet was forced to channel, supply chain, product placement, product selling points on the adjustment, adjust the speed on the outside really looks like this pace is faster, or in order to maintain the operation of millet Lei had to speed up the layout, but isn't that the charm of the Internet do? Fast and efficient integration of industry chain and accelerate the transformation of the industrial chain .

Of course, strode easily pull the egg with millet, millet helm Lei as Senior Internet entrepreneur and angel investor on millet development vision and the layout is not available in traditional mobile phone brand. Lack of traditional millet based industry supply chain, lack of Internet marketing and traditional mobile phone brand gene, millet and traditional mobile phone brands will integrate, when millet one day in the integration of the whole industry chain and the designed height of traditional mobile phone brand, millet mode to be the true beauty of the outbreak.


苹果小米:成也粉丝,败也粉丝 - iPhone6s,iOS,iPhone6s Plus,小米5 - IT资讯

2月24号,在这个特别的日子里,雷军发布了小米5。一方面是小米5为了等骁龙820不得不硬生生“拖”了19个月,可谓是小米苦苦等待的戈多,另一方面这天还是乔布斯的61岁生祭,第三方面是小米和雷军的重新定义了“发烧”和“黑科技”。

小米5发布会可能是小米历代产品最难过的一次发布会,且不说原定两个小时的卖点展示时长只用了一个半小时就说完了,更重要的是产品的卖点呈现和雷军的现场表现让人失望:

1)对演说内容不熟悉,PPT衔接不畅,且经常看提词器,米粉现场的积极反馈(鼓掌)较少;

2)营销超脱于产品功能,为了传播而提炼的所谓“黑科技”不过是供应商特性或他人已采用的功能;

3)小米产品的领先优势逐渐不那么突出,软肋凸显,但小米并不想、也不能坦诚这一点。

但从产品上来看,小米5像极了iPhone 6s给人的印象,尽管漂亮但不再惊艳,尽管杰出但不再超脱,尽管仍是粉丝的挚爱但热度已减,尽管嘴上不说但心里都苦。可以说,小米苹果尽管处于不同的境遇,却面临着同样的困局,而这个困局都是当下难以解决的,方向在前方但臣妾就是做不到啊。

品牌附着力核心因素不再

雷军曾在2014年表述为“站在风口上,猪都会飞”,是说外部环境对于企业发展的影响,而当外部环境发生变化时企业的一切都变了。再牛逼的基因型也得配合环境才能有牛逼的表现型,否则就会出现橘生淮北则为枳的情形。

苹果小米同样面临着外部环境变化带来的影响,原有的成功因子在新的环境下不再有效,品牌的附着力和吸引力逐渐弱化,品牌的光环逐渐暗淡。

苹果

苹果很容易理解,作为最大的产品经理和最具前瞻力的掌舵人乔布斯去世后,苹果的品牌附着力的核心——创新——就逐渐淡去了,苹果给人的感觉不再是那个改变世界的企业。此前彭博社刊发《彭博全球调查》称,71%的投资者认为苹果失去了创新领导力,28%的受访者认为苹果已永远失去创新领导力,只有23%受访者表示苹果仍是优秀公司。

在乔布斯去世后的4年时间里,苹果鲜有创新产品的发布,唯一全新发布的Apple Watch也并未达到预期的成功,去年销量仅1200万只.......供应链专家库克正逐步把苹果打造为一个成功的高速运转的盈利性商业公司,唯独不是创新型公司,苹果失去了魔力。

小米

小米的品牌附着力核心源于“性价比”,但这已经不能称之为小米的品牌特质

随着竞争对手对小米模式的了解,手机行业进入激烈的价格战,用价格换市场成为主流。众多传统厂商用小米的模式来抢占小米的市场和占领用户的心智。小米的”性价比”从小米4开始就逐渐地不那么突出,而小米5更是被米粉称之为缺乏诚意之作。智能手机换机潮的结束又加剧了这一态势。

更为严重的是小米的定位问题。特劳特定位体系告诉我们,“让品牌在消费者的心智中占据最有利的位置,使品牌成为某个类别或某种特性的代表品牌。”

小米品牌在产品线延伸中混淆了用户的品牌认知,红米的推出让小米从性价比的定位下沉为便宜好用的低价手机,随着低价红米的畅销,小米变成了用户心中的红米。而这种用户定位一形成,小米品牌向上的Note系列就很难有所突破。

有业内分析称,红米系列在小米的销量占比高达70%—80%,按照销量来讲,小米品牌已经成了低价的红米,在低端市场只有血腥的价格战而没有品牌溢价。当“性价比”不再能成为小米的核心优势,小米的品牌附着力因素就逐渐缺失了。

曾经小米还能用三驾马车来形容自己的生态,但随着魅族flyme,华为的系统易用性的提升,小米只好将产品卖点转移到讲情怀和设计。并不是说情怀和设计不能讲,但这并非目前小米的强项,小米的营销是和产品特性割裂的为营销而营销,甚至还让小米再度陷入了抄袭苹果三星的口水战中。

一旦失去了品牌的附着力,无论苹果还是小米都开始褪去光环,变成一家“非特别”的常规的商业公司,此时粉丝会将它抛弃,舆论和媒体也会将其包装为失败者。

成也粉丝败也粉丝

在互联网背景下,碎片化的渠道和资讯入口导致用户的注意力是天生发散、缺乏聚焦的,所以有一批聚焦关注企业的死忠粉尤为重要,这也是苹果小米能够迅速口碑引爆的原因,也是锤子科技为什么在T1销量并不算好的情形下仍然能够在T2上获得青睐的关键,这一切都是粉丝的作用。

但虽有明主不爱无功之臣,虽有慈父不爱无益之子,当品牌不能为粉丝提供心理的满足感时,当品牌不能持续为粉丝带来惊喜的体验时,可能就会出现成也萧何败也萧何的结果。

对于粉丝来讲,想要获得粉丝的青睐就要持续不断的提供超预期的产品体验,苹果产品是创新和逼格的体验,小米则是性价比和最好国产手机的光环,然而这两大光环都在逐渐的失去对粉丝的吸引力。

第一,粉丝的耐受性会不断提升

几年前的某个创新和功能领先足以让用户两眼放光,但几年后的现在用户对同样的领先可能完全无感。这也是为什么综艺节目三季往后收视都往往会走低,比如中国好声音,在第四季海选的甄选标准不仅需要歌手的声音要妖,同时还要有故事性的情况下仍然满足不了观众的胃口。

更何况粉丝这样一个疯狂爱着品牌的受众群呢?这群疯狂的人不仅耐受性更高,同时还保有爱之深责之切的心态,所以才会有查普曼对约翰·列侬开了五枪,只是因为:“你变了。”对于摩尔效应起作用的数码产品领域来说也是一样,用户对创新(性价比)的期望超过产品的实际表现时用户就会失望,多次失望后就会离开。

第二,粉丝的注意力是有限的,粉丝需要不断的被刺激才能被激活

新产品的崛起势必要瓜分一部分粉丝的注意力,自然会有粉丝投入竞争对手的怀抱,所以粉丝需要不断的接收到品牌的信息,通过品牌事件及媒体传播获得更多的话题讨论,进而俘获粉丝的注意力。

定位理论讲人类的头脑有五大缺陷:脑容量有限,厌恶混乱,缺乏安全感,已经装到大脑里的事情不会轻易改变,经常会丧失焦点。所以,最简单的办法,就是占据消费者头脑中第一的位置,如果不是第一,最好也能成为两强之一,就是要占领用户的心智。小米在2015年国内市场的出货量达到7000万,只完成了预期的70%的目标,也侧面印证了粉丝心智被竞品抢占的事实,众多米粉转黑也是一个侧面的体现。

第三,粉丝个性与共性的动态平衡正在被打破

我一直认为手机作为一个最贴近人体的智能设备,是远比服装、配饰更能体现一个人品味的产品。但随着苹果小米出货量的增大,二者已经沦为街机,当人人有“个性”就变成了没有个性的情形下,真正有“个性”的粉丝就会逃离。新加坡、香港的富裕人群就已经开始远离iPhone开始尝试三星,而小米则在小镇青年中褪去了最好国产手机的神秘面纱,对粉丝的吸引力也在降低。

此外,iPhone 5c、Apple Watch销量不佳,小米Note高端系统销量不畅都说明两家公司已经失去了对部分粉丝的吸引力。

本心与业绩间的相爱相杀

不忘初心是众多的企业领导者常常挂在口边的,特别是处于困局的企业,在搜索引擎检索时有一大把不忘初心的企业家,导致笔者一度怀疑这是一个贬义词,真正的不忘初心并不是挂在嘴上而是在实践上。谷歌的不作恶是写入网站的非正式口号,但鲜有谷歌领导人在公开场合表示已经不作恶。

常常挂在嘴边的可能正是他所缺乏的,正所谓缺啥补啥

苹果创新的乏力,小米业绩增长放缓让两家公司不得不重新审视之前的产品策略和市场策略,从市场的中心向外延伸,进入自己并不熟悉的市场,做自己曾经并不愿做的事。

乔布斯时代的苹果对于打造更好的苹果产品更有着强烈的个人意愿。即使有批评者看衰苹果公司的决策或者提出建议,乔布斯通常会坚持己见,他告诉用户follow me就好。而库克时代的苹果则迎合用户需求,你要什么我就给你什么,一定把你喂好。所以苹果推出了乔布斯时代一定不会出触控笔、小型平板,推出了相机凸出的6和6s系列,为了提升销量狡黠的推出土豪金、玫瑰金的换壳机制,多次进入中国市场进行供应商公关和政府公关……

当然某些策略不是说不好,而是苹果为了市场份额做了太多的让步,而这个让步是乔布斯时代所不会取舍的东西,也是偏执的苹果的生命力所在。

智能手机换机潮的过去,市场竞争的加剧导致小米的出货量增速不如预期,所以小米的以市梦率为方式的偏高估值也开始被诟病。小米最新一轮投资案显示,小米估值跌回240~280亿美金,跌掉40%,尽管是小米为了员工和投资者提前锁定收益而降低了估值,但40%的跌幅仍然说明小米估值开始跌落,发展速度的下降造成市梦率的梦并不如预期那般美好。

从公司战略上,为了维持小米的高速发展和估值,雷军在红米Note3发布会上哽咽,宣布回归创业初心,打造让用户感动的产品,而非刻意追求销量或市场份额。红米Note系列产品缩短研发周期,2014年4月小米在专利缺失的情况下启动国际化计划,即使在专利宽松的印度也遭遇了诉讼。

从产品布局上,小米从一年主推一款产品到2月24日同时推出5和4s两款产品,而3月29日的新国货发布会再推出红米3增强版,据悉同时还将推出笔记本电脑,无人机和电饭锅。某一天小米如果像华为三星每月开一次新品发布会,甚至推出小米空调,小米门锁笔者都不会觉得诧异。

手机产品上看,小米从2000元以下市场进入2000及3000元市场,在专利缺失的情况下布局全球市场,从手机市场迅速进入电视,净化器,路由器,pad,甚至影视市场,金融市场,无人机市场,笔记本电脑市场.....产品在生态圈内广泛布局,可以说,小米正在被业务发展捆绑,不得不拓展产品线和产业链。

而对于非小米发展模式的互联网+硬件公司来说,他们完全可以不用夺命狂奔,而小米在这台高速运转的发展战车上不可能慢下来,如果慢下来小米营销带来的性价比定位会迅速瓦解,小米生态赖以存在的根基也会受到影响。

小米,处于比苹果更难过的困境

尽管苹果小米都面临同样的困境,但两者又不一样。从市值上,苹果仍然是市值5700亿美元的公司,仍然高居市值第一,苹果仍然是盈利节节走高的公司,即使市值被谷歌短期超过但第二天就再度夺回了第一的位置。小米从一年前估值450亿到现在估值跌去40%,估值是投资者和市场对公司当前和未来前景最直接判断的反馈

背后是对苹果小米的市场竞争环境、未来发展前景的迥然不同的预测。

行业竞争能力

作为iOS系统的唯一拥有者,无论在系统底层还是硬件设计、品牌营销层面,苹果的高品质在短期内仍无可替代。开放安卓系统带来的底层的不友好和不安全导致几乎所有安卓品牌在短期内仍无法与苹果抗衡,唯一能与苹果品牌抗衡的只有三星,但三星还达不到挑战苹果的高度。

小米的竞争环境则严苛得多,2015年全球智能手机出货量为14.3亿部,安卓占82%,国内手机市场出货量达到5.18亿部,上市新机型共计1496款,小米2015年小米6750万出货量,华为6220万紧缩其后,vivo和oppo也都超过3300万销量。

小米的成功源自针对普通用户的高性价比定位,通过口碑营销和在线预订的方式节省了渠道费用和营销成本,但随着其他手机品牌营销方式的跟进,供应链和价格体系的重新整合,小米的性价比和营销优势已经并不那么明显,特别是在2016小米进军线下渠道,小米之家转型为销售渠道,进驻1200家苏宁门店,外加运营商渠道,都再度将小米的性价比优势损耗殆尽。而线下渠道拓展是小米的盈利新渠道还是为了扩大出货量支撑估值还需要小米来验证。

供应商的议价能力

苹果的成功除了有改变世界级的创新产品,卓越的供应链管理同样举足轻重。良好的供应链管理也是苹果攫取最大化利润的法宝,CanaccordGenuity的数据显示,2015年苹果销量占据智能手机市场的17.2%,营收占了整个产业的54%,但利润占整个行业的91%,利润率在全球市场仅次于工商银行,排名世界第二。

苹果的供应链管理连续四年荣居Gartner的全球供应链25强榜首,库克1998年加入苹果后正是凭借供应链管理上的良好表现成为苹果新任CEO,苹果典型的轻资产经营模式下几乎所有的关键技术和生产工艺都是与供应商合作开发。

苹果的供应链管理不仅是通过庞大的出货量、买断产能和高利润保证供应商的利润,提高自己的议价能力,同时通过建厂资金支持和工程师派驻解决技术问题以实现新技术的快速商用,帮助供应链通过技术商用后的其他厂商合作获取利润,打造供应商与苹果的利益共同体。这也是为什么苹果手机的单价一直持续上涨,而Android手机的均价则不断下滑。

2010~2015苹果和安卓手机平均单价变化

通过要求供应商从苹果指定的厂商购买材料,通过买断产能,以及扶持现有供应商竞争对手来保证苹果对供应商的管控。所以,雷军曾在小米成立之初在寻求供应商支持时曾无奈地表示,供应商眼里只有苹果和非苹果的概念。

小米对供应商的管控则比苹果差了几个量级,一方面是小米成立仅6年,在供应链的管理上还不足。另一方面是小米出货量以及供应商利润率并不足以得到供应商的重视、获得更大的议价能力

所以小米5才不得不苦等骁龙820了19个月时间,所以小米初期才不得不搞期货营销;所以小米在新品发布时不得不避开苹果,以避免富士康的组装生产线过度倾斜苹果而影响小米的产能;所以小米在用联发科制衡高通失败后,不得不冒着被高通制裁的危险考虑小米芯的研发;所以苹果可以整合全球范围内的产业链,而小米对产业链的整合还局限一域。

比不上苹果,但这仍然是最好的小米

现在所有手机新品发布会,言必谈苹果,不拿iPhone 6和6s作对比好像就不能体现自己产品的特别,但iPhone也是一个不断迭代的产品,不可能保证每个功能都领先对手,也不可能保证每款产品都完美无缺,所以才造就了那些不断靠意淫达到了高潮并期望让粉丝达到高潮的手机品牌。

小米呢?现在的小米可能才是最好的小米小米有诸多的问题,小米增速面临下降,小米线下渠道拓展或拖累盈利......然而这不正是小米发展过程中必然会经历的吗?高速增长不可持续。

当行业变成蓝海,业绩增长必然下降,而为了维持增长必然会经历产品线的延伸和产品价格的增长;当产品成为街机,品牌对用户的吸引力自然也会随之下降,想要表现个性的用户会离开。

小米品牌的确在供应链和渠道上的话语权不够,但对于一个成立6年的品牌来说,小米无疑逐渐在加强自己的短板,补齐传统手机品牌需要20年才能建立的运作经验。小米的高性价比并不是性能和价格的比值,而是硬件配置和价格的比值,竞争对手的复制速度和赶超比软件和系统更加容易,所以小米的性价比逐渐褪色......

可以说,为了保证高速运转,小米是不得不在渠道、供应链、产品布局、产品卖点上做调整,这样的调整速度在外界看起来的确是步子快了一些,或者说为了维持小米的运转雷军不得不加快布局,然而这不正是互联网的魅力所在吗?快速,高效的整合产业链,加速产业链的转型

当然,小米这样迈着大步很容易扯着蛋,但小米掌舵人雷军作为互联网资深创业者和天使投资人,对小米发展的远见和布局无疑是传统手机品牌所不具备的。小米缺乏传统行业供应链的基础,传统手机品牌缺乏互联网的营销和基因,小米和传统手机品牌必然会进行融合,当某一天小米在整合全产业链和设计上达到传统手机品牌的高度时,小米模式才会爆发真正的魅力。






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