Jobs ′ 9 predictions for 20 years ago, have now come true – jobs, Tesla, Amazon-IT information

In 1996, it is still a research project at Stanford University, the most advanced PC systems are Windows 95, Amazon also sells books and small startups. Jobs returned to Apple. In this year, he told Wired magazine in an interview. Although the iMac, iPod and iPhone is only many years later, but he accurately foresaw the development direction of the computer industry. See below accurately foresee what jobs.

Steve′s main prediction is that the Internet will be everywhere. Of course, many people have predicted this, but his prediction even suggests that today′s mobile first world of the Internet. "Internet dial tone will be everywhere. Everything any common interest. ”

Another prediction: e-commerce is the most important activity on the network. When jobs was asked who are the biggest beneficiaries of the network, he said that beneficiaries will be people selling things. "This is e-commerce. People will no longer be shopping around. They will buy things on the Web! ”

Amazon founder Bezos clearly hear Steve, even though his company at the time was a small start-up company that specializes in books. 20 years after that in 2015, Amazon′s net sales reached $ 105 billion. Even large retail chains such as Wal-Mart are now struggling to keep up with the pace and had to shut down a lot of window dressing.

In this interview, Steve Jobs claimed that e-commerce "will come in two years", electronic commerce will be huge in terms of size. "The third thing is e-commerce, it is harder than complicated Web publishing system. Network because you have to be bound to your order management system. I think we still have two years to wait for it to appear. However, it will be huge in terms of size. "However, some e-commerce sites failed to form a climate. For example, the Pets.com site because of too little revenue and had to quit the industry in 2000.

Jobs said that if the "network account for all transactions in goods and services in the country of 10%, then it will become a phenomenon. "According to the United States statistics, e-commerce now has 7.5% per cent of all retail sales.

Jobs also predicts that the Internet will become a powerful tool for bypassing the middleman. In the past 20 years, technology startup′s main mode of operation is to bypass middlemen and directly to consumers. "The network will become a merchant selling goods directly to consumers or information dissemination channels. It will bypass all the middlemen. In fact, our society has too much intermediaries. They slowed the pace of sales of goods, improved commodity prices. Internet will wipe them out. "Mr jobs said. Now, a lot of startups are trying to bypass the middleman. For example, Casper company sales pad directly to consumers; Warby Parker company direct sales of glasses to the people that need it; like Kickstarter company provides direct investment in the production of their creative products.

He warned that "ignoring the change of large companies will be punished. "" Enterprises will face big changes every few decades, one of the networks will be one of the big changes. Over the next ten years, enterprises are facing the biggest change will be the rise of the network. "Mr jobs said. Now, taxi companies, bookshops and record companies should agree with this view.

AJAX (Web development techniques for creating interactive Web applications) and Web 2.0, the term prior to the emergence of a few years, he foresaw a network application will be fully developed. "People will begin to publish a variety of complex applications over the network. These Web applications will appear in the next 12-18 months explosion. "" This is the next important stage in the development of the network. "He said," have you seen the FedEx Web site? There, where you can track your parcel. ”

Jobs is another amazing prediction that he foresaw the Tesla Motors, or at least the emergence of Tesla′s model. "In car dealerships, for example. Inventories accounted for a large amount of money, billions of dollars in funds. Stock is not a good thing, which occupy the capital, vulnerable to damage, it had become obsolete. It requires a lot of time to manage. And, in most cases, the car you want, the color you want, there is not, so you can bargain with them. Cancel all those stocks isn′t better? You direct booking of car do you want, the color or other elements you want, and then get it in a week. ”

Now, Tesla Motors stock hardly any cars. Instead, potential buyers can view the model cars, then on the Internet or through a sales book. Then, from time to time, they can directly to your car. Of course, the Tesla company′s distribution pattern may have also been inspired by the Apple store. Therefore, there is a dispute here: what is Steve Jobs seen Tesla, or is he inspired it?

Steve jobs is expected, desktop personal computers "in the next ten years will go into the dark ages. "In 2006, Apple Mac computers use Intel processors, subverted the moribund market. Now, Apple is the only PC computer manufacturers saw sales growth. "In the end, Microsoft would be down because of complacency. Maybe it will have some new things out. However, unless there is some significant technological innovations, or Microsoft will die. ”

Steve Jobs seems to foresee a cloud service, such as Google or Apple iCloud Drive. "Once I manage my storage file is not required, if I lived in this interconnected world, I have a lot of new options. "" In fact, I no longer have to store anything. I often use e-mail and the Internet. With these two things, I don′t have to manage my stored files. In fact, my favorite way to remind myself to do something is to send yourself an email. This is my store. "Mr jobs said.

Before Google developed its search engine, jobs seems to think of Chromebook will become a product. "Someone might come up with some very interesting Internet terminals. "" It′s like the old mainframes. Web browser is non-intelligent terminals, network server you like to handle all tasks of large machines. "Mr jobs said.

Jobs has been very supportive to the application of technology in school teaching. However, as early as 1996, he does not recognize that simply adding technology can improve the quality of teaching. He called for reinvent technology, so as to meet the school requirements. Now, his widow, Laurene? Powell? jobs (Laurene Powell Jobs) is a Charter School (improving public schools) ′s main supporters.

Jobs also claimed that people have lived in the "information overload", "most people had access to far more information than they can be assimilate. "This view is still correct today. However, the photo-sharing application Instagram and micro-blogging site Twitter was attracted to people who may not agree with this view.

Although jobs accurately foresee the revolutionary influence networks for businesses, but he said technology will not change the world. This view can be said to be wrong! "The network will become extremely important. However, it will change many people′s lives? No, what I mean is, it may be, but not necessarily. At this time, the answer to it is not deterministic. It may unwittingly affect people. However, it was certainly not brought great shock to people, just like the first time I saw TV, radio shock the first time. "Mr jobs said. 11 years later, Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone, shaken and changed the world.

20年前乔布斯的9大预测，现在都已成真 - 乔布斯,特斯拉,亚马逊 - IT资讯

1996年，谷歌还是斯坦福大学的一个研究项目，最先进的PC系统还是Windows 95，亚马逊还只是一家卖书的小小初创公司。而乔布斯还没有回到苹果。在这一年，乔布斯接受了《连线》杂志的采访。尽管iMac、iPod和iPhone是后来好多年才有的东西，但是乔布斯准确预见到了电脑行业的发展方向。下面看看乔布斯准确预见到了哪些事情。

乔布斯的主要预测就是互联网将会无处不在。诚然，很多人都预测过这一点，但是他的预测甚至暗示了当今移动优先的网络世界。“网络拨号音将会无处不在。任何变得普遍的东西都引起人们的兴趣。”

另一个大预测：电子商务将是网络上最重要的活动。当有人问乔布斯网络的最大受益者是谁的时候，他说受益者将是卖东西的人。“这就是电子商务。人们将不再到处逛商店了。他们将会在网络上购买东西！”

亚马逊创始人贝索斯显然听进去了乔布斯的话，尽管他的公司在当时还只是一个小小的专门经营图书的初创公司。20年后，也就是在2015年，亚马逊的净销售额达到了1050亿美元。就连大型零售连锁店如沃尔玛现在也难以跟上节奏，不得不关停了很多门面。

在此次采访中，乔布斯声称，电子商务时代“大约会在两年后到来”，电子商务的规模将会非常庞大。“第三样东西是电子商务，它要比复杂的网络应用发布系统还难。因为你必须将网络绑定到你的订单管理系统中。我想，我们还有两年时间等到它出现。但是，它的规模将会非常庞大。”但是，也有一些电商网站未能形成气候。例如，Pets.com网站就因为营收太少而不得不在2000年退出了行业。

乔布斯称，如果“网络占有这个国家全部商品和服务交易量的10%，那么它将会成为一种现象。”据美国统计数据显示，现在电子商务已占到全部零售销售额的7.5%。

乔布斯还预测，互联网将会成为人们绕开中间商的强大工具。在过去20年中，科技初创公司的主要经营方式就是绕开中间商，直接面向消费者。“网络将成为商家直接面向消费者销售商品或发布信息的渠道。它将绕开所有中间商。事实上，我们这个社会有了太多中间商。他们减缓了商品的销售进度，提高了商品的价格。互联网将会彻底消灭他们。”乔布斯说。现在，很多初创公司都力图绕开中间商。例如，Casper公司直接销售垫子给消费者；Warby Parker公司直接销售眼镜给需要它的人群；Kickstarter公司则让人们直接投资生产他们喜欢的创意产品。

乔布斯警告称，“无视变化的大公司将会受到惩罚。”“企业每隔十年就会遇到大的变化，网络将是其中一个大的变化之一。在下一个十年，企业面临的最大变化将是网络的兴起。”乔布斯说。现在看来，的士公司、书店和唱片公司应该都会赞同这个观点。

在AJAX（一种创建交互式网页应用的网页开发技术）和Web 2.0等术语出现之前的几年，乔布斯就预见到网络应用程序将会获得全面发展。“人们将开始在网络上发布各种复杂的应用程序。这些网络应用程序将会在未来12-18个月内出现爆炸式增长。”“这是网络发展的下一个重要阶段。”乔布斯说，“你看过联邦快递公司的网站吗？在那里，你可以跟踪你的包裹到了哪里。”

乔布斯的另一个惊人的预测是他预见到了特斯拉汽车公司，或至少是特斯拉公司的商业模式的出现。“以汽车经销为例。库存占据了大量的资金，数十亿美元的资金。库存并不是什么好事，它占据资金，容易遭到毁损，它已变得过时了。它需要耗费大量的时间进行管理。而且，在通常情况下，你想要的汽车，你想要的颜色，那里根本就没有，因此你就会跟他们讨价还价。取消所有这些库存难道不更好吗？你直接预订你想要的汽车，说明你想要的颜色或其他构成元素，然后在一周内就得到它。”

现在，特斯拉汽车公司几乎没有库存任何汽车。相反，潜在的买家可以查看汽车模型，接着在网上或通过销售员预定。然后，隔一段时间后，他们就可以直接来取车了。当然，特斯拉公司的经销模式可能也受到了苹果零售店的启发。所以，这里就存在一种争议：到底是乔布斯预见到了特斯拉，还是他本人启发了它？

乔布斯预计，台式电脑市场“在未来十年内将会进入黑暗时代。”在2006年，苹果的Mac电脑转而使用英特尔处理器，颠覆了死气沉沉的市场。现在，苹果仍然是唯一出现销售额增长的PC电脑制造商。“最终，微软将会因为骄傲自满而一蹶不振。也许它会有一些新的东西推出来。但是，除非出现一些重大的技术革新，否则微软就会完蛋了。”

乔布斯似乎还预见到了云服务，如苹果iCloud或谷歌Drive。“一旦我不需要管理我自己的存储文件，一旦我生活在相互连通的世界中，我就有了很多新的选择。”“其实，我已不再存储任何东西了。我经常使用电子邮件和网络。有了这两样东西，我就不必管理我的存储文件了。事实上，我最喜欢的提醒我自己做某事的方式就是给自己发送一封电子邮件。这就是我的存储方式。”乔布斯说。

在谷歌开发完成其搜索引擎之前，乔布斯似乎就想到了Chromebook将会成为一种产品。“有人可能会想出一些非常有趣的网络终端设备来。”“它就像古老的大型机。网络浏览器就是非智能的终端，网络服务器则就像处理一切任务的大型机。”乔布斯说。

乔布斯一直很支持将科技应用到学校教育教学活动中。但是，早在1996年，他就认识到简单地添加科技并不就能提高教学质量。他要求对科技产品进行彻底改造，使之适应学校的要求。现在，他的遗孀劳伦娜?鲍威尔?乔布斯（Laurene Powell Jobs）就是特许学校（改良公立学校）的主要支持者。

乔布斯还声称，人们已生活在了“信息过剩”的年代，“大多数人获得的信息已远远超过了他们可以吸收理解的量。”这种观点在今天也仍然是正确的。但是，对图片分享应用Instagram和微博网站Twitter入迷的人可能不会同意这个观点。

尽管乔布斯准确预见了网络对于各行各业的革命性影响，但是他也曾经说过：科技不会改变世界。这个观点可以说是错的！“网络将会变得极其重要。但是，它会改变无数人的生活吗？不，我的意思是，它可能会，但不一定会。在现在这个时候，它的答案并不是确定的。它可能会不知不觉地影响人们。但是，它肯定不会给人们带来巨大的震撼，就像人们第一次看到电视、第一次听到广播那样的震撼。”乔布斯说。11年后，乔布斯推出了iPhone，震撼和改变了整个世界。