Technology companies investing logic technology, stock-IT information

In our book, shares in technology companies is likely to mean "too expensive" or "wave is too big", but they are rising amid shouting your in, and fell again in the cheaper. Let us beat Miss cow units, we are on pins and needles stepping on mines, mostly tech stocks.

So how science and technology investment company′s stock? Here to share with you some of their own learning experiences, are for reference only.

More important than valuation trends

If you turn over the pages of United States technology company history, we find some interesting phenomena: those shares in leading enterprises are constantly killing rivals in the process of rapidly rising, when industry trends clear, the competitive landscape are stable, corporate profitability has improved significantly, but the share price and valuation there is a great divide.

For example, Microsoft launched ten years after the Windows3.0 killed all the competitors also gained 10 years in a row.

But in the subsequent decade monopoly, share prices barely rose Apple introduced in 2001 after the iPod, company earnings increased, stock prices continued to rise, but valuations are down, finally converge at the time of his death and the poor′s 500; Amazon, long history of loss, even now, is still as high as 450 times times earnings, its share price surging over the years.

These enterprises are Shining stars, but most companies have failed in the competition are forgotten, these phenomena are hidden behind an important rule--share price trend and valuation for the limited space.

When a company has been understood by the market and industry trends at the increasingly clear, stock prices will go in a shifting, begin driven by growth into profit-driven. Because in the future the path is relatively clear, to tell the story.

If space is also being made, even if growth is still huge, stocks will also face death valuation difficulties, because the ceiling had been established.

If the speed is greater than the valuation decline rate of profit growth, stock performance to be up, such as Apple, Google, if earnings growth and valuations come down quite outperformed for consolidation, such as Microsoft, Cisco, if they can′t keep up with valuations falling rate of profit growth, stock performance, down, United States died in the dot-com companies fall into this category.

If you find that some technology stocks are cheap, you should be wary of its story might have been finished. Valuation should not be a reason to buy technology stocks, trends more important than valuations .

So how to identify trends?

Competition general trends, competitive advantage to dig a unit

When new products into the market early, low permeability, insufficient market competition. Such as the air conditioning industry in the 1990 of the 20th century, when China Air permeability of less than 5%, broad market prospects, competition is relatively moderate, the manufacturers of sales and profits will grow as the industry penetration rate of improvement.

Leading enterprises in this phase is often difficult to identify in advance because demand is growing fast, changes in technology, product, market, and service strategy has a lot of room for industry competition is relatively unorganized, and the barriers to entry are low.

So, whether geli, Chunlan is Haier, which was promoted by industry, shares roughly the same.

When penetration reaches a critical point, production to keep up with the growth in demand, market share becomes the focus of competition, the competition began to intensify, the pattern began to change. 2000-2005, the air-conditioning industry is still growing rapidly, but in order to seize market share profits are low, stock prices are relatively weak.

In this disorderly competition conditions, cost, technology, business model, and so have the competitive advantage of enterprises to emerge, and some even have the product pricing.

Leading enterprise show, its share price will also usher in a wave of fast-rising. They eliminated a number of competitors at the same time, also prevents new competitors, barriers to entry were promoted, competitive situation to stabilize. After the competition ended, profit margins began to improve, leading enterprises′s stock price began to drive into profit growth driven by growth.

Also air conditioning manufacturers, Chunlan shares and trend of gree electric appliances before 2005 are basically the same, are worlds apart. Gree has doubled since listing shares of times, but since 1998 25 times times the PE to PE of about 8 times now, its valuation has undergone a process of continuous decline.

With the accelerating pace of innovation of science and technology, the new industry is speeding up at a rate of, its life cycle is also greatly reduced. Auto industry for decades, and only initial formation, air conditioning industry for more than 10 years to form orderly competition, throughout the life cycle of IT hardware is only more than 10 months or less.

But shares in enterprises will experience driven by industry to growth and then to profit-driven process, the first stage is at the outlet, the second stage win in the competition, the third stage of the earnings growth, but the whole process by the industry trends and space gradually detail showing falling valuations.

Each different phase of industry competition, price-driven considerations, a company′s competitive advantage and sustainability to determine its industry position and profitability. Therefore, the competitive landscape is to identify trade opportunities and the evolution trend of the Foundation, and the key to competitive advantage is the mining Bull shares.

Key--see through the essence of technology investment and recognize trends

Innovation is the impetus of sci-tech enterprise growth, whether it is under the framework of the existing micro-innovation and subvert innovation, it may make a great company, could also create a great industry, hidden behind the seemingly bright future of a great deal of uncertainty and risk.

Electric cars earlier than that of oil-fuel-powered car was born in 50, but still does not have a popular IBM back in 1992 they introduced the first truly large touch-screen smart phones without buttons, but the popularity of smartphones is starting from 2007, Apple released the iPhone.

Innovation never stops, but it will not choose a company. Technology industry prone to dominance, winner takes all situation, but its ruling period and also affected by new technologies, new patterns of subversion, volatility of natural high.

Investment is, after all, to be implemented in stock, we can more easily spot trends only as close as possible to the truth, and this requires that we know about the industry to long-term, for companies to keep track of.

科技公司的投资逻辑 - 科技,股票 - IT资讯

在我们的印象里，科技公司的股票可能意味着“太贵”或“波动太大”，但它们总是在一片喊贵声中不断上涨，又在便宜声中跌了又跌。那些让我们捶胸顿足错失的牛股，让我们如坐针毡踩到的地雷，大多也是科技股。

那么该怎样投资科技型公司的股票？这里跟大家分享一下自己的一些学习心得，仅供参考。

趋势比估值更重要

如果翻一翻美国科技公司的历史，我们会发现一些有趣的现象：那些龙头企业的股价总是在不断干掉竞争对手的过程中快速上涨，当行业发展趋势明朗，竞争格局稳定以后，企业盈利能力都明显提升，但股价和估值却出现很大的分化。

例如，微软推出windows3.0后的十年陆续干掉了所有的竞争对手，股价也连续上涨了10年。

但在其后垄断的十年里，股价基本没涨；苹果公司自2001年推出ipod后，公司盈利逐年提升，股价持续上涨，但估值水平却一路向下，最终在乔布斯去世时与标普500接轨；亚马逊，历史上长期亏损，即便是现在，市盈率仍然高达450倍，但其股价这些年来可谓一路高歌猛进。

这几家企业都是耀眼的明星，可多数公司都在竞争中失败而被遗忘，这些现象的背后都隐藏着一条重要的规律——股价随趋势而动，估值为空间所限。

当一家企业逐渐被市场所理解，行业发展趋势日渐明晰时，股价便会进去一个换挡期，开始由成长驱动转变为盈利驱动。因为未来的路径已经相对明朗，可讲的故事就那么一些。

若此时行业空间也开始被市场所摸清，即便成长空间依旧巨大，个股也将面临杀估值的窘境，因为行业的天花板基本已经确立。

如若盈利增长的速度大于估值回落速度，股价表现为上涨，例如苹果、谷歌；如若盈利增长与估值回落速度相当，股价表现为盘整，如微软、思科；如若盈利增长跟不上估值回落的速度，股价表现为下跌，美国网络泡沫中死掉的公司大多属于此类。

如果你发现某个科技股很便宜，那你应该警惕它的故事或许已经讲完了。估值不应该成为科技股买入的理由，趋势比估值更重要。

那么该如何识别趋势？

竞争格局识趋势，竞争优势挖个股

当一样新产品进入市场的初期时，渗透率低，市场竞争往往不充分。比如20世纪90年代的空调行业，当时中国的空调渗透率不到5%，市场前景广阔，竞争相对缓和，各厂商的销量和利润都会随着行业渗透率的提升而增长。

这个阶段往往很难提前识别龙头企业，因为需求增长快，技术变动大，在产品、市场、服务等策略上都有很大的余地，行业竞争格局相对散乱，且进入壁垒低。

所以，无论是格力、春兰还是海尔，其股价都是受行业发展所推动，股价走势大体相当。

当渗透率到达某个临界点，产量的增长跟上了需求的增长，市场份额成为争夺的焦点，竞争开始加剧，格局也开始改变。2000-2005年，空调行业仍旧迅速增长，但各家为了抢占市场份额都把利润压得很低，股价也相对疲软。

在这种无序竞争的状况下，那些在成本、技术、商业模式等方面具备竞争优势的企业脱颖而出，有的甚至拥有了产品定价权。

龙头企业初步显现，其股价也会迎来一波快速上涨。它们在淘汰一批竞争对手的同时，也阻止了新竞争者，行业进入壁垒得到提升，竞争格局趋稳。无序竞争结束后，利润率开始得到提升，龙头企业的股价开始由成长驱动转变为利润增长驱动。

同样是空调厂商，春兰股份和格力电器2005年以前的走势基本一致，其后便是天壤之别。格力自上市以来股价翻了上百倍，但从1998年25倍PE到现在8倍左右的PE，其估值也经历了不断下滑的过程。

随着科技创新速度的加快，新行业出现的速度也在加快，其生命周期也被大大的缩短。汽车行业走了几十年才初步定型，空调行业发展了十多年才形成有序竞争，而IT硬件的整个生命周期也就才十几个月甚至更短。

但企业的股价都会经历由行业发展推动到成长推动再到盈利推动的过程，第一个阶段是站在了风口，第二各阶段则靠在竞争中胜出，第三各阶段则靠盈利增长，但整个过程都会因行业发展趋势和空间的逐渐明细而呈现出估值下滑的状态。

每个阶段的行业竞争格局不同，股价驱动因素各异，一家企业的竞争优势及其可持续性决定了其行业地位和盈利能力。因此，竞争格局是识别行业机会和演化趋势的基础，而竞争优势则是挖掘牛股的关键。

科技股投资的关键——看透本质，认清趋势

创新是科技企业成长的动力，无论是现有框架下的微创新，还是颠覆式的创新，它既有可能成就一家伟大的公司，也可能开创一个伟大的行业，看似美好未来的背后也隐藏着极大的变数和风险。

电动汽车较石油燃料动力车早诞生50年，但至今仍没有普及；IBM早在1992年便推出了首部真正意义上的无按键大触屏智能手机，但智能手机的普及却是由2007年苹果发布的iphone开始。

创新从未停止，但不会总偏爱一家公司。科技行业容易出现一家独大，赢者通吃的的局面，但其统治周期和地位也易受新技术、新模式的颠覆，股价波动自然较大。

可投资毕竟是要落实在个股上的，我们只有尽量靠近真相才能更易看清趋势，这就要求我们对行业要长期了解，对公司要持续跟踪。