Nokia in transition: in the "no" days of mobile phone-Nokia, 5G, patent-IT information

Editor's note/is concern of "people machine war" has ended, Korea players Li Shishi to 1:4 lost Google go artificial intelligence AlphaGo, former qifeng sly and fierce, at capture opponents weaknesses a hit that in the, but this a enrollment for through algorithm to "calm" lazi of AlphaGo is seems to no comes, can certainly of is, even Li Shishi in past effective of routine Shang again excellence, eventually also not which of opponents--because chess of rules has occurred has changes.

So, do you think Li Shishi designed to overcome AlphaGo to study machine learning go routines, also will continue to upgrade existing qifeng to deal with "real-world" rivals in it? Unfortunately, in many cases, the real market game go is much more complex than a disk, just as "subversives," Ma said, "banks do not change, we change bank", if they do not have the courage and determination to self-revolution, being beheaded in the horse is something sooner or later. Business case in this issue, we focus on the Giants Nokia, Nokia is able to revive in the future, in the transformation process of all strategic decisions and market practices are worthy of business people think.

"Return" the handset business, Nokia has been to be specious.

Latest news in 2016, the Mobile World Congress (MWC), the CEO of Nokia lajifu·Suli Nokia will "return" to the Smartphone market, but added that "there is no specific timetable, do not worry, in the year or later. ”

According to Nokia's official response, because the agreement with Microsoft as of 2016, fourth quarter, at least until there will be no Nokia mobile phone appeared. In fact, for Nokia, has already accepted to leave cell phones and find another way out of reality: on the MWC "new Nokia" title is "clouds, 5G, the Internet of things". 2015 of earnings in the, little number pen mentioned "phone" of just patent authorized--phone of Yu Nokia, seems to more is based on a "opportunism", and non-strategy oriented, while as the Nokia executives in earnings conference Shang by stressed of "Nokia brand is we in mobile phone and mobile equipment field most has value of assets", and "undoubtedly will carefully assessment how will brand value zoom to highest"; but on the is like industry people by pointed out that of as, "phone market has into Red Sea competition, Nokia revival takes this slim chance. "

Backgrounds mobile phones businesses "illusion"

Even if returning to the smart phone market, will not be used to Nokia phones. Reasons as Nokia official stressed that, "past manufacture, acquisition marketing and channels were transmitted to Microsoft, Nokia has no conditions for manufacture and sale of mobile phones. ”

"China's mobile phone market business model has been upgraded by current mainstream model and re-entered the Chinese market will require substantial investment, which faces significant risks. "TNS General Manager of Beijing Shang Zhihu said.

However, Nokia still has a brand value that can be exploited.

Revitalize the brand and technology "assets" to Nokia mobile phones "return" logic, the paths as Suri said, by other manufacturers launched the Nokia brand phones in the manner authorized. As the tablets have been attempts at the end of 2014, launched by Nokia technology and brand licensing, Foxconn, OEM manufacturing of tablets based on Android system N1, according to data revealed the media showed, 20,000 units sold out in less than 4 minutes later.

For the former Finland mobile phone giant, high number of fans on the market is an indisputable fact. According to Phonearena technology website survey, approximately 95.46% of users think that Nokia should try to launch Smartphone Android system, only 4.54% users think it is a good idea.

Though they may be welcomed by all, but the reality is not optimistic. "Competition in the mobile phone market has heated up, homogeneity of domestic mobile phone competition seriously, unless the precise positioning segments, or Nokia is very difficult to have a breakthrough in this field. "CCID senior analyst at Internet Research Center menchanghui pointed out.

According to CCID consulting, 386 million in 2015, China's mobile phone market sales, compared with 0.8%, appeared first sales decline in recent years; released April 2 report, the market research firm Gartner shows 2016 single digit growth in the global smartphone sales will for the first time.

"In this case, Nokia does not have more input in the mobile phone business," Analysys entrance Terminal Research Center, a think-tank analyst Zhu Dalin said, for Nokia, mobile phones do not have a long term business, short-term goal is to pave the users through a mobile phone, ecological portal for other innovative intelligent hardware.

But can achieve the desired effect it is hard to say, the investment adviser Wang Ningyuan, a researcher at the IT industry, by OEM models before launch of the N1, junior after the popular book, there is no context, comparing the feasibility of this strategy may not be high. Another user of Phonearena survey reveals a Nokia cell phone face awkward: its 2014 series of Nokia smartphones become paragraph 6 with the worst reputation Android devices.

This Nokia mobile phone "back to" the road full of variables, industry experts Pan Jiutang pointed out on Twitter, Nokia return initiative, are licensed to companies such as Foxconn brand, pick up the extra factory dumped Foxconn, mainly focused on emerging markets, drain the last brand value.

Such of evaluation is demanding, but is not no truth, because in brand zhiwai, Nokia hard has again and other intelligent phone of opponents phase against of capital, "had Nokia said proud global of is its relies on China supply chain achievements of operation speed that push new products of efficiency, and cost advantage, has was currently filled with of China manufacturers as Huawei, and Lenovo break; while, Nokia has been cannot in software ecological system made breakthrough, until currently is such, software innovation of focus still in United States Silicon Valley. "Of the company research and development author, Beijing, Hua Lin, Chairman of management consulting and senior expert Zhang Lihua points out, in this ecosystem, Nokia has been losing its edge.

Expediency of technology licensing, imagination

Now that has to "Farewell", Nokia should change the survival course, adapt to the cell phone business model. From this point of view, at least one thing is used. Just as "Freemasonry" of former Chairman and CEO Mr Perez said Kodak had pointed out, strategic transformation of Kodak's past failures, rather than technology.

Of course, technology is Nokia's huge "legacy". After selling its devices and services business to Microsoft, still holds some 30,000 patents. These patents 2G, 3G and 4G related to mobile communication technology, Research Institute ValueWalk2014 year according to a statistics, including Apple, Samsung, HTC, BlackBerry, LG, Sony, Motorola, Huawei and nearly 60 other brands need to pay licensing fees to the Nokia.

China University intellectual property law research center special researcher Li Junhui wrote that, according to the State intellectual property Office Web site statistics, on patents for invention in the most competitive, Nokia has been granted patent number is 910 times times the Meizu, is 8 times times the HTC, Apple's 7 times.

Nokia patents after the spin off its handset business gain more of a say in the negotiations-and other companies can cross licensing and Nokia, without paying high royalties. Like Samsung Electronics, senior lawyer said Lim Young-jo, "Nokia now does not produce mobile phones, means that we cannot prosecute the Nokia, but we have to pay patent fees. In addition, we also cannot circumvent these patents, because Nokia now has a large number of patents on the basis of the hand. ”

In 2014, Nokia CEO Suri at the analyst meeting, said Nokia is considering increasing licensing fees. On in Qian soon, Samsung and Nokia of Marathon patent case dust fell set, in accordance with analyst Sami·sakamisi (Sami Sarkamies) inferred, Samsung annual to Nokia of patent costs or from zhiqian of 100 million euro rose to 300 million euro, Nokia 2015 fourth quarter earnings displayed, Nokia technology net sales income compared big increased 170%, which 20% of increases contribution from Yu patent arbitration by brings of technology authorized costs of increased.

Various signs that Nokia Patent attacks will be more violent, Suri at the 2015 annual Analyst Conference also revealed that on the Samsung arbitration results, many patents are not included, there is room for further mining while other major contender in the Smartphone industry, Nokia will also further explore authorized cooperation possible.

Despite Nokia's senior patent income expressed "very confident", but not to sit back and relax. Li Junhui pointed out that patents are held by Nokia into failure rate of about 100 a year, what it calls "not to manufacture mobile phones increased licensing costs" approach, more like a "time-for-space" strategy to achieve business transformation and rise again.

"Giants in the transition, in the specific field of huge amounts of patents not only helps to subsidize its costs on developing new business, itself is yet another new field of accumulation. "Li Junhui, told reporters of the China Business Journal noted that Nokia can also take this opportunity to implement other business breakthrough.

Long-term strategic acquisition, highlight the communications network business

Even if effective, licensing is only a "icing on the cake" of business, Nokia needs to more long-term and strategic deployment-a single communications network services are able to undertake this important task?

2015 fourth quarter, Nokia communications network plate income and 2014 earlier compared declined 5%, annual net income is compared 2014 has 3% of gains, amounted to 11.49 billion euro (about collection 13.1 billion dollars); this in phone business dying zhiqian on reserved good of "retreat", now became Nokia "last of positions": has occupy Nokia revenue of 91.9%, from this meaning Shang for, Nokia had to "desperate".

2014 came to power of Suri had said Nokia will focused in network equipment, and consumption map, and technology patent and authorized three a field, but voice not fell, in when business accounted for than in the ranking second of HERE map business on to 2.8 billion euro of price sold, outside comments Suri "strategy clear", is apparently its severed has Nokia some next Plaza oblique out of idea, gathered all power hope will which build became a communications giant.

Kodak ex-Chairman and former CEO Mr Perez said in an interview with the Harvard Business Review, when he referred to the Kodak turned "small is beautiful" and "subtraction" transformation strategy. During his tenure, Mr Perez said he sold the medical imaging, and provide funds for digital research and development and business development, through a number of mergers and acquisitions, costing about a $ 2.5 billion global imaging group.

Same as the Kodak, in 2015, Nokia announced a 15.6 billion euros (about US $ 16.6 billion) acquisition of Alcatel-Lucent (hereinafter "Arun")-with this refreshing Finland Enterprise historical amount of mergers and acquisitions transactions, 2014 World's fourth communications equipment maker Nokia will rank third in the Pocket.

Many analysts pointed out that the merger was not "lang concubine meaning" sweet marriages, more helpless.

In 2014, Arun is the turnover of 15.9 billion dollars, Nokia communication service about US $ 13 billion, company operators in the top two income will be about $ 31 billion, Ericsson was $ 33 billion, and ZTE operators billions of dollars of income – which have outperformed, which is also pursuing press used to describe a situation of Nokia and Arun.

"For Nokia, and Arun, this is a matter of survival deal. However, the deal real challenge is that they can find their future growth. "Bengt Nordstrom, founder and CEO of telecommunications consulting company bengete·nuodesiteluomu (Bengt Nordstrom) points out.

Concerns about the risks of the acquisition of the capital market has been reflected, media reports pointed out that since the merger announcement, Nokia's share price fell, investors worried that the integration process of the two companies and France Governments might have on special request to Nokia--when Lucent takeover of failed interventions have some relationship with the Government.

In 2015 earnings in the, Nokia special stressed has both merged by may brings of cost save of effect, can through straighten out products and service of overlap part, sales area and network of optimization, manufacturing, and supply chain, aspects of rationalization, means to completed, and estimates 2018 years of operation cost save reached 900 million euro, but, this behind by implied of integration difficulty is "hard", from a species degree Shang for, Arun is warning, 2006 United States Lucent Technologies invested to buy France's Alcatel technology combined Arlong, has conducted several rounds of reorganization, ran up a loss of billions of euros in the Middle, and abolition of a large number of employees.

Integration plans for how to move forward, Nokia said the silent period relates to the announcement of results, has been unable to respond. However, despite those intricacies of integration details, even the environment, Nokia is facing a lot of challenges. "Small, the merger of Nokia and Arlong sides, can complement their weaknesses. But if you zoom out to see the whole trend of communication industry has become saturated, as a basis for providing hardware and information services to the communications industry, in fact, has been gradually approaching its end of life cycle. "The village Mei Chen Fei pointed out that capital partners.

Can be compared is that occupy the top five global communications companies Huawei is also increasing end-consumer market share, according to its just-released annual report, 2015 annual sales of $ 60.8 billion, business operators, enterprises and consumers three business income accounted for more than 59%, 7%, 33%, worth mentioning is that the consumer business to grow 73%.

"Even after merging the projected annual sales of $ 26.5 billion, can't compete with Huawei has implemented carrier revenues, on the other hand, if the overall communications business is shrinking, strong is not a great deal of sense," said Mei Chen Delphi for the merger to Nokia's business "Renaissance" is not good "feeling just do the last fight. ”

Renaissance 5G standard of the bet and the VR business

Nokia is trying to present a new image: the former mobile phone giant in the 2016 World Congress on "show" out of the application of 5G network-driven unmanned and remote robot, remote meter reading based on Internet technologies; also launched a virtual reality (VR) in Nokia's future business scenarios, the camera platform Ozo--, have no phone's location.

At the analyst meeting, Su pointed out, Nokia CEO 2016 annual meeting will be a great deal of resources into 5G business and strengthen leadership in this area. In a sense, it is also "the old Nokia" continue, as China University intellectual property law Research Center researcher said Li Junhui, Nokia has technical advantages of natural help to seize the 5G standard and patent high; and the acquisition of Arlong Nokia injected a new and innovative, MWC field over more than 10 5G 8 in the presentation from Bell Labs.

Is based on the original advantages of personnel on the one hand, and on the other, on "business" model: VR is a breakthrough. "5G and VR domains belong to frontiers, Nokia entered, an early layout to lay a solid foundation for later development. "Investment adviser Wang Ningyuan, a researcher at the IT industry that Nokia will control certain market" opportunities ".

Beijing hualin consulting Zhang Lihua, Chairman and senior experts also believe that with the help of Nokia in the global accumulation of collaborative research and development, as well as a strong executive system, VR VR, VI AI is a brand new technology areas such as break opportunities.

However, if Nokia can stand out in the current VR Sports Giants gathered too early too early: Google has released Google Cardboard low cost VR devices, Microsoft released a high-end headset device HoloLens;Facebook to us $ 2 billion acquisition of Oculus Rift, and according to reports, Apple has already set up a "secret research and development departments", and acquired a number of companies.

Is not too early to start Nokia chose a different route, Ramzi Haidamus, President of its technical department in an interview said that Nokia should not follow the Oculus, Sony and HTC recently concentrated clusters into head-mounted VR equipment market. "The market is very attractive, but there are too many competitors in the market, and to devote themselves in their commercial fight redundant. "Nokia releases VR Ozo is a professional level camera, the main market in Hollywood, the media, the advertising industry, around 391,000 yuan.

"VR may be the next generation of human-computer interaction devices following mobile terminal, standing at Nokia's point, lost cell phone war, came back to win in the next war, which will determine their business arrangement into the VR field. "In the small village of capital partners Mei Chen Fei, VR product positioning is a bad choice of Nokia," Nokia chose professional-grade market, it is not a subjective choice and more differentiation of existing resources only in the hands of these (cameras), so I chose the topic of photography. ”

But on the other hand, like the CCID said Internet Research Center senior analyst menchanghui, current VR is only of products, is far from stage of company's financial contribution. In this sense, VR business competition is itself a capital rivalry, "as Nokia has lost market leader, the current market leading handset brands of VR input and concerns, may not be as Nokia is more focused. "TNS Shang Zhihu, General Manager of Beijing has pointed out," If you can take advantage of this, quickly establishing a new industrial competitiveness, and creating unique user experiences, Nokia may have the opportunity to reverse. ”

This seems to let people Lenovo to also in technology and market change in the unprepared of Kodak former Chairman and CEO Mr Perez said of a claims, he in Harvard commercial comments of interview in the on pointed out that, Subversion is a relative of terms, it is innovation who of dilemma, is was Subversion who develop of beginning, Shang generation of was Subversion who as long as insisted technology innovation, even original business cannot continues to, still has may became related industry or other industry of subversion who.

"The Giants want to make a difference in VR, on the one hand can, through their own VR accumulation of many years of research and development and technology in the field, on the other hand is a strategic investment or acquisition through capital levels quick layout. "Mei Chen Fei, Nokia does not have enough advantage in these two areas," let the big companies keep innovation alive, is always a difficult thing. Able to understand and direct attention at the highest levels of the company, to have sufficient research and development money to continue to support these two points are indispensable. ”

转型诺基亚：在“没有”手机的日子 - 诺基亚,5G,专利 - IT资讯

编者按/备受关注的“人机大战”已经落幕，韩国棋手李世石以1∶4不敌谷歌围棋人工智能AlphaGo，前者棋风狡黠而凶猛，善于捕捉对手弱点一击即中，但这一招对于通过算法来“冷静”落子的AlphaGo却似乎无用武之地，可以肯定的是，即便李世石在过往行之有效的套路上再精益求精，终究也不是后者的对手——因为对弈的规则已经发生了变化。

所以，你认为李世石会为了专门攻克AlphaGo而去钻研针对机器学习的围棋套路，还是会不断升级现有的棋风以应对“真实世界”中的对手呢？很可惜，很多时候，真实的市场对弈远比一盘围棋要复杂得多，就像“颠覆者”马云所说的“银行不改变，我们就改变银行”，如果自己没有勇气和魄力去自我革命，那么被他人斩于马下也是早晚的事情。本期商业案例，我们关注曾经的巨头诺基亚，无论今后诺基亚是否能够重振雄风，它在转型过程中所有战略决策和市场实践都值得商界人士认真思考。

对于“回归”手机业务，诺基亚一直表现得似是而非。

最新的消息是在2016年的世界移动通信大会（MWC）上，诺基亚CEO拉吉夫·苏里表示诺基亚将“重返”智能手机市场，不过却补充道，“目前没有具体的时间表，也不着急，可能在今年，也可能更晚。”

根据诺基亚的官方回应，由于与微软的协议截至2016年第四季度，至少在此之前不会有诺基亚的手机出现。实际上，对于诺基亚来说，早已接受了离开手机而另觅出路的现实：MWC上的“新诺基亚”主打的是“云、5G、物联网”。2015年的财报中，寥寥数笔提及“手机”的只是专利授权——手机之于诺基亚，似乎更多是基于一种“机会主义”，而非战略导向，一方面正如诺基亚高管在财报会议上所强调的“诺基亚品牌是我们在移动电话和移动设备领域最有价值的资产”、“毫无疑问会仔细评估怎样将品牌价值放大到最高”；但另一方面则像业内人士所指出的那样，“手机市场已成红海竞争，诺基亚借此复兴机会渺茫”。

背景 手机业务“幻象”

即便重返智能手机市场，也不会是曾经的诺基亚手机。原因也正如诺基亚官方强调的那样，“过往的制造、市场和渠道随着收购都转交给了微软，诺基亚已经没有制造和销售手机的条件。”

“中国手机市场商业模式已经升级，采用当前主流商业模式重新进入中国市场会需要大量的投资，这无疑面临巨大的风险。”TNS北京公司总经理尚直虎指出。

但是，诺基亚依然有可以利用的品牌价值。

盘活品牌和技术“资产”成为诺基亚手机“回归”的逻辑，其采取的路径也正如苏里所言，通过向其他厂商授权的方式推出诺基亚品牌的手机。正如其在平板电脑上已有过的尝试：2014年年底，诺基亚推出通过技术和品牌授权、由富士康代工制造的基于Android系统的平板电脑N1，据当时媒体透露出来的数据显示，2万台在不到4分钟的时间里就销售一空。

对于这个昔日的芬兰手机巨头来说，市场上拥趸甚众是不争的事实。据Phonearena科技网站的调查显示，大约有95.46%的用户认为，诺基亚应该尝试推出Android系统智能手机，只有4.54%的用户认为这并不是一个好主意。

尽管可能是众望所归，但现实的因素却不容乐观。“手机市场竞争已经白热化，国内手机同质化竞争严重，除非精准定位细分人群，否则诺基亚在这个领域很难有突破。”赛迪顾问互联网研究中心高级分析师门长晖指出。

赛迪顾问的数据显示，2015年中国手机市场销量3.86亿部，同比降低0.8%，出现近几年来的首次销量下滑；市场研究机构Gartner在4月2日发布的报告也显示，2016年全球智能手机销量将首度出现个位数增长。

“在这种情况下，诺基亚不会在手机业务上有更大的投入，” 易观智库入口终端研究中心分析师朱大林说，对于诺基亚而言，手机不会有更长远的生意，短期的目标就是通过手机端来铺垫用户，为其他的创新智能硬件做生态入口。

不过能否达到预期效果还很难说，在中投顾问IT行业研究员王宁远看来，之前通过贴牌模式推出的N1，初级火爆预订后，就没有了下文，对比看此种策略的可行性或许不高。而Phonearena的另一个用户调查也揭示了诺基亚手机所面临的尴尬：其 2014年发布的诺基亚X系列智能手机成为口碑最差的6款Android设备之一。

这也让诺基亚的手机“回归”之路充满了变数，业内专家潘九堂在微博上指出，诺基亚重返市场的举措，无非是把品牌授权给富士康之类的企业，顺便把多余的工厂甩给富士康，主要面向新兴市场，榨干最后一点品牌价值。

这样的评价很苛刻，但并非没有道理，因为在品牌之外，诺基亚很难有再与其他智能手机的对手相抗衡的资本，“曾经诺基亚称傲全球的是其依靠中国供应链成就的运营速度即推新产品的效率、成本优势，已被目前涌起的中国厂家如华为、联想打破；同时，诺基亚一直无法在软件生态系统取得突破，直到目前也是这样，软件创新的焦点仍然在美国硅谷。”《华为研发》作者、北京创华林管理咨询有限公司董事长兼资深专家张利华就指出，在这种生态系统下，诺基亚已丧失优势。

权宜之计 技术授权的想象空间

既然不得不“告别”，诺基亚就必须转变生存路线，适应没有手机的商业模式。从这个方面来看，至少有一点是可以加以利用的。正如“同病相怜”的柯达前任董事长兼CEO彭安东所指出的，柯达过去的失败在于战略转型，而非技术。

当然，技术也是诺基亚丰厚的“历史遗产”。在其将设备与服务业务出售给微软后，仍持有约3万项专利。这些专利与2G、3G和4G移动通信技术有关，研究机构ValueWalk2014年做出的一份统计就显示，包括苹果、三星、HTC、黑莓、LG、索尼、摩托罗拉、华为等近60家品牌都需要向诺基亚缴纳专利授权费。

中国政法大学知识产权法研究中心特约研究员李俊慧曾撰文指出，根据国家知识产权局网站的统计数据，在最具竞争力的发明专利上，诺基亚已获得的专利授权数量是魅族的910倍，是HTC的8倍，是苹果的7倍。

剥离手机业务之后的诺基亚开始在专利谈判中获得更大的话语权——此前其他公司可以和诺基亚交叉授权，不用支付高额专利费。就像三星电子高级律师Lim Young-jo所言，“诺基亚现在并不生产手机，意味着我们无法起诉诺基亚，但我们必须支付专利费用。除此以外，我们也不能绕过这些专利，因为诺基亚现在有大量的基础专利在手。”

2014年，诺基亚CEO苏里在分析师会议上表示诺基亚考虑提高专利授权费。就在前不久，三星与诺基亚的马拉松专利案尘埃落定，依照分析师萨米·萨卡米斯（Sami Sarkamies）推断，三星每年给诺基亚的专利费用或从之前的1亿欧元升至3亿欧元，诺基亚2015年第四季度财报显示，诺基亚科技净销售收入同比大增170%，其中20%的增幅贡献来自于专利仲裁所带来的技术授权费用的增加。

各种迹象表明，诺基亚的专利攻势会更加猛烈，在2015年年报分析师会议上苏里也透露，在三星的仲裁结果里，很多专利都不包含其中，未来还有进一步挖掘的空间；而针对其他智能手机产业的重要竞争者，诺基亚也会进一步探讨授权合作的可能。

尽管诺基亚高层对专利收入表示“很有信心”，但是却并非可以高枕无忧。李俊慧就指出，诺基亚所持有的发明专利正在以每年100项左右的速度陆续进入失效期，其所谓“不制造手机提高专利授权费用”的做法，更像是一种“用时间换空间”策略，希望实现业务转型和再次崛起。

“对于转型中的各类巨头来说，在特定领域积累的海量专利不仅有助于补贴其在拓展新业务方面的成本支出，本身也会是又一次的新领域的专业积累。”李俊慧在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时指出，诺基亚也可以借此机会实现其他的业务突围。

长远战略 收购，突出通信网络业务

即便行之有效，专利授权也只是一个“锦上添花”的业务，而诺基亚必须有更长远的战略性部署——一枝独大的通信网络业务是否能够担此重任？

2015年第四季度，诺基亚通信网络板块收入与2014年同期相比下降5%，全年净收入则相比2014年有着3%的涨幅，共计114.9亿欧元（约合131亿美元）；这个在手机业务日薄西山之前就预留好的“退路”，如今成为诺基亚“最后的阵地”：已经占据诺基亚总收入的91.9%，从这个意义上来说，诺基亚不得不“孤注一掷”。

2014年上台的苏里曾表示诺基亚会专注在网络设备、消费地图、技术专利和授权三个领域，但话音未落，在当年业务占比中排名第二的HERE地图业务就以28亿欧元的价格卖出，外界评论苏里“战略清晰”，很显然其断绝了诺基亚一些旁逸斜出的念头，聚集一切力量希望将后者打造成为一家通信巨头。

柯达前任董事长兼前CEO彭安东在接受《哈佛商业评论》的采访时就提到了柯达变身“小而美”的“减法”转型策略。在其任期内，彭安东出售了医疗影像，并将所得资金用于数码研发和业务拓展，通过多项并购、耗资约25亿美元成立全球影像集团。

与柯达相同，2015年，诺基亚宣布以156亿欧元（约合166亿美元）的价格收购阿尔卡特-朗讯（下称“阿朗”）——凭借这一刷新了芬兰企业历史并购金额的交易，2014年全球排名第四的通信设备商诺基亚将位居前列的第三名收入囊中。

很多分析人士指出，此次并购并非“郎情妾意”的甜蜜联姻，更多基于无奈。

2014年，阿朗的营业额是159亿美元，诺基亚通信业务约为130亿美元，排名前两位的华为运营商收入大约310亿美元，爱立信是330亿美元，而中兴通讯运营商收入近百亿美元——前者难以望其项背，而后面又追兵紧逼正好用来形容诺基亚和阿朗的处境。

“对于诺基亚和阿朗来说，这是一笔关乎生死存亡的交易。但是，这笔交易真正的挑战还在于他们能否找到自己的未来增长点。”电信咨询公司Bengt Nordstrom创始人兼CEO本格特·诺德斯特罗姆（Bengt Nordstrom）指出。

资本市场对此次并购风险的担忧已经有所体现，有媒体就报道指出，并购消息公布以来，诺基亚股价下跌，投资者担心两家公司的整合流程，以及法国政府可能对诺基亚提出特别的要求——当年朗讯被收购后失败就与政府干预有着一定的关系。

在2015年财报中，诺基亚特别强调了两者合并所可能带来的成本节约的效果，可以通过理顺产品和服务的重叠部分，销售地区和网络的优化，制造、供应链等方面的合理化等手段来完成，并预估2018年的运营成本节约达到9亿欧元，但是，这背后所隐含的整合难度则“一言难尽”，从某种程度上来说，阿朗也是前车之鉴，2006年美国朗讯科技斥资收购法国阿尔卡特科技，合并后的阿朗，进行了数轮重组，中间亏损高达数十亿欧元，同时也裁撤了大量员工。

对于整合计划将如何推进，诺基亚表示涉及到业绩发布前的缄默期，尚无法做出回应。不过，抛开那些可能盘根错节的整合细节，即便从大环境来看，诺基亚也面临不小的挑战。“放小了看，这次合并对诺基亚和阿朗两方来说，确实可以补充各自短板。但如果放大了看，整个通讯产业已经呈现饱和的趋势，作为提供基础硬件和信息服务的通讯产业，实际上已经逐渐走向它生命周期的尾端。”小村资本合伙人梅晨斐指出。

可以对比的是，在全球五大通信厂商中占据榜首的华为也在不断加大终端消费市场的占比，其刚刚发布的年报显示，2015年全年营收608亿美元，运营商、企业、消费者业务三大业务收入分别占比59%、7%、33%，值得一提的是，消费者业务增长73%。

“即使在合并后预计的年营收265亿美元，也不能与华为已经实现的运营商业务收入抗衡，另一方面，如果整体通讯业务板块在萎缩，做强也并没有很大的意义，”梅晨斐表示对这次合并给诺基亚带来的业务“复兴”并不看好，“感觉只是做最后的挣扎而已。”

复兴赌注 5G标准和VR再创业

诺基亚正在试图呈现一个全新的形象：这个昔日的手机巨头在2016世界移动通信大会上“秀”出了应用5G网络驱动的无人驾驶和远程机器人，基于物联网技术的远程抄表；还推出了虚拟现实（VR）摄像平台Ozo——在诺基亚的未来商业图景中，已经没有手机的位置。

在分析师会议上，诺基亚CEO苏里就指出2016年会将大量的资源投向5G业务，强化在这个领域的领导力。从某种意义上来说，这也是“老诺基亚”的延续，就如中国政法大学知识产权法研究中心特约研究员李俊慧所言，诺基亚此前的技术优势自然有助于其抢占5G标准及专利高地；而对阿朗的并购也给诺基亚注入了新的创新想象，MWC现场十多个5G演示中8个演示来自贝尔实验室。

一方面是基于原有优势的排兵布阵，另一方面则开启“再创业”模式：VR就是其中的一个突破点。“5G和VR领域都属于前沿领域，诺基亚提前进入，早日布局能为后期的发展奠定坚实的市场基础。”中投顾问IT行业研究员王宁远认为诺基亚由此会掌控一定的市场“先机”。

北京创华林管理咨询有限公司董事长兼资深专家张利华也认为借助于诺基亚在全球协同研发方面的积累，以及很强的执行体系，VR虚拟现实、VI人工智能等新技术领域不失为一个品牌突围的机会。

不过，诺基亚是否能在目前巨头云集的VR竞技中脱颖而出还言之尚早：Google发布了低成本的VR设备Google Cardboard，微软发布了高端头戴式设备HoloLens；Facebook以20亿美元收购了Oculus Rift，而据报道，苹果也早已组建了“秘密研发部门”，并为此收购了数家公司。

起步并不算早的诺基亚选择了一条与众不同的路线，其技术部门总裁Ramzi Haidamus在接受媒体采访中就表示，诺基亚不应该效仿Oculus、Sony和HTC在近期集中扎堆进入头戴式VR设备市场。“这一市场确实十分诱人，但目前市场中有太多的竞争者，把精力投在与他们的商业斗争之中实在有些多余。”而诺基亚发布的Ozo 是一款专业级VR相机，主要的投放市场是好莱坞、传媒、广告等行业，售价约合人民币39.1万元。

“VR可能是继手机终端之后的下一代人机交互设备，站在诺基亚的角度，输了手机那场战争，要在下一场战争中赢回来，这决定了其在业务布局上一定会涉足VR领域。” 在小村资本合伙人梅晨斐看来，诺基亚的VR产品定位也是一种不得已的选择，“诺基亚选择专业级市场，并非一个主观的选择，更多是手里现有的差异化资源就只有这些（摄像头），所以选择了摄影这个主题。”

而另一方面，就像赛迪顾问互联网研究中心高级分析师门长晖所说的，目前VR只是完成了产品化，距离公司的财务贡献阶段还很远。从这个意义上来说，VR业务竞争本身还是一场资本的角逐， “就如诺基亚曾经失去市场领导者一样，目前市场主要手机品牌对VR的投入和关注，可能不会如诺基亚更加聚焦。” TNS北京公司总经理尚直虎指出，“如果能够利用这一点，快速建立全新的产业竞争能力，并创造独特的用户体验，诺基亚或许有机会反转。”

这似乎让人联想到同样在技术和市场更迭中措手不及的柯达前任董事长兼CEO彭安东的一个说法，他在《哈佛商业评论》的采访中就指出，颠覆是一个相对的术语，它是创新者的窘境，也是被颠覆者开拓的起点，上一代的被颠覆者只要坚持技术创新，即使原有业务无法继续，仍有可能成为相关行业或其他行业的颠覆者。

“巨头想在VR领域有所建树，一方面可以通过自己在VR领域多年的研发和技术积累，另一方面是通过资本层面的战略投资或收购快速布局。” 在梅晨斐看来，诺基亚在这两方面都不具有足够的优势， “让大公司保持创新的活力，永远是一件很难的事情。能够有公司最高层的理解和直接关注，能够有充足的研发经费持续支持，这两点缺一不可。”