IV technology wave hit, did you ship? -VR, virtual reality, AR, augmented reality, mixed reality, MR-IT information

On July 16, according to foreign media reports, the evolution of consumer computing platforms is not a straight line, but the wave forward. Personal computers, the Internet and mobile devices are the first three waves, every wave of faster development, more and more innovative. Currently, virtual reality, augmented reality and mixed reality composition of the fourth wave is moving once again, we came.

Again and again we are computing platform development, clear each wave of is not an independent event, contains a series of new. And the fourth wave is no exception, it contains virtual reality, augmented reality and mixed reality.

Virtual reality technology allows users to completely stay away from virtual worlds, bringing their immersive; augmented reality virtual image superimposed on a user's real world, enhanced user experience; and mixed reality is to make 3D virtual objects and displayed in a user's real world. From the talk, whether it is virtual reality, augmented reality and mixed reality are virtual objects into reality.

Subversion-wave

Computing platform every wave speed faster, reach the heights high and existing computing platform is a subversive. Type 2 from the first Apple personal computer launched by 90 of the world's accelerated development, spent more than 20 years of time PC wave. Wave broadband Internet starting from the inflection points in less than five years by 2000. From iPhone and smart phones available to the explosive growth in just three years, and now the Smartphone wave continues to bring a variety of business innovation.

At present, augmented reality and virtual reality is still in the first phase of market development of science and technology (hype, of products, eruption, sustainable development). Foundation for the development of hardware, from low-end devices such as Google Cardboard to HoloLens and other high-end products, total amount to 2018 is unlikely to exceed 100 million. According to statistics, the overall market revenue to only hundreds of millions of dollars this year in 2017, will slow growth, and accelerated in 2018 or there will be a turning point in the development of.

Reality of the combination

Although belonging to the same wave, virtual reality, augmented reality and mixed reality has its own size and path of development.

Virtual reality of two kinds of devices--mobile devices as well as game consoles or personal computers have different direction. Current game consoles and personal computers to be able to bring the best user experience for your users, but its development platform is restricted by the installed base of equipment. So far on a global scale, only 40 million Sony PS4, and less than 20 million computers capable of supporting virtual reality. Although the next few years, along with virtual reality devices, and computers cost continues to fall, that figure will increase. But in the longer term, population 60 million of potential hosts will constrain market development.

Virtual reality or the fast-growing mobile. Primarily hardware-the Smartphone costs continue to decrease, the price could be as low as $ 99 or free. Problem is the user experience of mobile virtual reality cannot match dedicated virtual reality host, but this situation is expected to change in the next few years. In addition, with the smart phone manufacturers generally face the problem of slower and lower profits, or mobile virtual reality will become the new growth point.

Augmented reality and mixed reality are facing different challenges, both in the area of consumer products markets are behind the virtual reality 18-24 months. As the technology matures, augmented reality and mixed reality of the current products are enterprise-oriented services. Augmented reality and mixed reality technology in order to achieve a real sense of consumer products, not only need to extend the battery life of the device, to enhance the mobile processing power, we also need to improve the ecosystem of applications while reducing network operator charges. Through these initiatives, to make augmented reality and mixed reality for mass consumer demand. Judging from the current situation, to achieve this until 2018, which is the fourth wave appears Subversion development.

▲ Equipment growth trends

Virtual reality on a large scale. Augmented reality and mixed reality in larger, longer development time. From a long-term perspective, augmented reality and mixed reality equipment or will replace the user of Smartphone in your pocket. However, although the fourth wave of computing platform has great potential, early signs are, but discuss more of the industry within the next five years or risk--electric car maker "Tesla" in the market. At present, from the low-end devices to high-end products, various types of equipment accounted for the consumer electronics market share is small. Even by 2020, various types of equipment only about 5% of global consumer electronics devices. If the fourth wave come, you might want to wait until 2025.

Come on

? Market revenue

Fourth wave of revenue comes mainly from equipment installed base of equipment of, as well as economy. On installed base of equipment, price is reasonable and who is going to meet the requirements of the devices, which consumers will pay.

Virtual reality-oriented entertainment market, mainly by hardware, games, videos as well as the influence of the virtual reality theme park. As the market develops, related applications will drive the revenue growth of virtual reality. As hardware prices have gradually stabilized clear, long term appropriate software and services will become the main revenue of virtual reality.

Revenues are the main ways of entertainment applications of virtual reality and augmented reality applications are adding entertainment, the latter will be applied.

Despite the current high cost of augmented reality, which is similar to a Smartphone development, long term high hardware prices will bring revenues to device manufacturers. Augmented reality software and services with the mobile market today there are similarities, are in this, but not up. Augmented reality user groups from TV, movies, advertising, and consumer-level applications to bring to market revenues. Such as the Amazon as well as Alibaba e-commerce through augmented reality provides a new platform for users. In addition, the size of augmented reality for mobile networks will be new increasing point of voice and data services, the user will pay for mobile data costs.

Tsunami warning

Augmented reality and virtual reality market share

Wave's arrival, there are always different ways of dealing with it. If the wave is smaller than expected, so the participants were only fluctuating up and down. But if the wave is much larger than expected, you'll first be burying its head in the sand to avoid it. This is not a joke, but the platform is more like a tsunami of change, in a way for the existing market participants to more dangerous. Do you remember when you use a Nokia?

Whether it is virtual reality, augmented reality and mixed reality, and now are in the hype cycle. But next year, we will enter the "face" of product cycles. This is the market's trough, will also be the calm before the big wave coming. When the wave of the past, who can stay on the beach, who also were swept away will be self-evident.

第四波科技浪潮袭来，你上船了吗？ - VR,虚拟现实,AR,增强现实,混合现实,MR - IT资讯

7月16日消息，据国外媒体报道，消费者计算平台的演进并不是一条直线，而是波浪式地向前推进。个人电脑、互联网以及移动设备是前三波浪潮，每一次浪潮的发展速度更快，影响更大，更具创新性。目前，虚拟现实、增强现实以及混合现实组成的第四波浪潮正在朝我们再次袭来。

我们身处计算平台的一次次发展浪潮，清楚明白每次浪潮的到来都不是一种独立的事件，包含一系列新生事物。而第四次浪潮也不例外，它包含着虚拟现实、增强现实以及混合现实。

虚拟现实技术让用户完全置身于虚拟世界，带给他们沉浸感；增强现实将虚拟影像叠加在用户的现实世界，增强用户感知；而混合现实则是将物体作3D化的虚拟处理并展现在用户的真实世界。从一方面说，无论是虚拟现实、增强现实还是混合现实，都是将虚拟物体转化为现实感觉。

颠覆式浪潮

计算平台每一次浪潮的发展速度都越来越快，达到的高度更高，并且对现有的计算平台都是一次颠覆。从第一台苹果2型个人电脑的推出到上世界90年代的加速发展，个人电脑浪潮的形成花费了20多年的时间。宽带互联网的浪潮从开始到2000年的拐点仅仅不到五年时间。而智能手机从iPhone面世到爆发式增长仅仅用了三年时间，而现在智能手机的浪潮还在不断带来各种商业创新。

目前，增强现实以及虚拟现实还处于科技市场发展的第一阶段（炒作、产品化、爆发、可持续发展）。其发展的硬件基础，从诸如谷歌Cardboard等低端设备到HoloLens等高端产品，总设备量到2018年不太可能突破1亿部。据统计，今年整个市场的营收将仅有数亿美元，2017年将有缓慢增长，而在2018年或将出现一个加速发展的拐点。

现实化的组合

虽然属于同一个浪潮，但虚拟现实、增强现实以及混合现实均有自己的规模和发展路径。

虚拟现实的两种设备形式——移动设备以及游戏主机或个人电脑有着不同的发展方向。目前游戏主机和个人电脑能够为用户带来最好的用户体验，但是其发展平台受到设备安装基数的制约。迄今为止在全球范围内，仅有4000万索尼PS4以及不到2000万个人电脑能够支持虚拟现实。尽管未来几年随着虚拟现实设备以及电脑成本的持续下降，这一数字会有所增长。但在长期内，6000万的潜在主机数量将会制约市场发展。

而移动端的虚拟现实或将快速增长。主要是相关硬件设备——智能手机成本持续降低，其价格可以低至99美元甚至免费。移动端虚拟现实的最大问题在于用户体验无法与专门的虚拟现实主机相匹敌，但这一状况有望在未来几年内得以改变。此外，随着智能手机制造厂商普遍面临增速减缓以及利润降低的问题，移动端虚拟现实或将成为新的增长点。

增强现实以及混合现实面临着不同的挑战，二者在消费产品市场化方面均落后于虚拟现实18到24个月。随着技术的不断成熟，目前的增强现实以及混合现实产品都面向企业服务。增强现实以及混合现实技术要想实现真正意义上的消费产品，不仅需要延长设备的电池续航能力，增强移动处理能力，还需要打造完善的应用程序生态系统，同时降低网络运营商资费标准。通过这些举措，才能够使增强现实和混合现实适合大众消费的需求。从目前情况来看，要到2018年才能实现这一点，也就是第四次浪潮将出现颠覆式的发展。

▲相关设备增长趋势

虚拟现实规模很大。而增强现实和混合现实的规模更大，发展的时间也更长。从长远来看，增强现实和混合现实设备或将会替代用户口袋中的智能手机。但是，尽管第四次计算平台浪潮的潜力巨大、端倪初现，但未来五年内业界讨论更多的还是冒险者——电动汽车制造者“特斯拉”的市场。目前从低端设备到高端产品，各种现实类设备占据的消费电子产品市场份额还很小。即便到2020年，各种现实类设备仅占全球消费电子设备的5%左右。若第四次浪潮真正到来，可能要等到2025年。

加油前进

▲相关市场营收预测

第四波浪潮的营收主要来源于设备安装基数、使用数量以及设备的经济性。关于设备安装基数，不外乎设备价格的合理性、谁来生产符合要求的设备，哪些消费者会为此埋单。

虚拟现实主要面向娱乐市场，主要受到硬件、游戏、视频以及虚拟现实主题公园等因素的影响。而随着市场发展，相关的应用程序也会带动虚拟现实营收的增长。随着硬件价格已经逐步稳定明确，长期来看相应的软件以及服务将成为虚拟现实营收的主要方向。

虚拟现实营收的主要途径是娱乐加应用，而增强现实则是应用加娱乐，后者将以应用为主。

尽管目前的增强现实成本很高，其也类似于智能手机的发展，长期来看较高的硬件价格会为设备制造商带来大量营收。增强现实的软件以及服务与现在的移动市场有相似之处，都处于此消彼涨的情况。增强现实用户群体将从电视、电影、广告以及消费级应用程序方面为这个市场带来营收。诸如亚马逊以及阿里巴巴等电商也会通过增强现实为用户提供新的平台。此外，增强现实的规模将会为移动网络的语音数据服务带来新的增长点，用户会因此为移动数据开支埋单。

海啸预警

增强现实及虚拟现实市场份额

面对浪潮的到来，总有不同的应对方式。如果浪潮比预期的小，那么其中的参与者只是会上下起伏波动。但是如果浪潮比想象的大得多，你就会首先将头埋进沙子躲避一下。这不是看玩笑，但计算平台的变化更像是一场海啸，在某种程度上对于现有的市场参与者来所更加危险。你还记得你使用诺基亚是什么时候吗？

无论是虚拟现实、增强现实还是混合现实，目前都处于相关的炒作周期。但明年我们将进入“面对现实”的产品化周期。这是市场运行的低谷期，也会是大浪到来之前的平静期。当浪潮过去，谁能够留在沙滩上、谁又被卷走将不言自明。